Storm Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

274 
FZAK52 PAFG 232248
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
148 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-241530-
148 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 975 mb low over the Western Aleutians tonight will deepen to 
957 mb as it moves northeast to be over the Central Being Sea 
Tuesday morning and will deepen further to around 946 mb as it
approaches the Gulf of Anadyr Tuesday evening. A strong front 
associated with this low will approach Saint Lawrence Island 
tonight and move to the Bering Strait by Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ200-241530-
Norton Sound-
148 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 8 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Freezing spray. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and fog.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-241530-
Dall Point to Wales-
148 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 50 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing rain. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-241530-
Kotzebue Sound-
148 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-241530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
148 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...E winds 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.  

$$

CCC Nov 20

102 
FZAK52 PAFG 241319
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-250315-
419 AM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 955 mb low near Saint Matthew Island will move to the Gulf of 
Anadyr at 944 mb late this afternoon then weaken over Siberia 
through Wed. The associated strong front will move north to 
Wrangel Island by Wed night.

$$

PKZ200-250315-
Norton Sound-
419 AM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and fog.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-250315-
Dall Point to Wales-
419 AM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE winds 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow. Freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing rain. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-250315-
Kotzebue Sound-
419 AM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-250315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
419 AM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

Nov 20

605 
FZAK52 PAFG 242326
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-251515-
226 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 946 mb low is near the Gulf of Anadyr with a strong front 
stretching through the Bering Strait to the Seward Peninsula. The 
low will move west across the Gulf of Anadyr and into Chukotka 
Wednesday pushing the front north to Cape Lisburne by Wednesday 
morning. A second front will move north to Cape Lisburne by 
Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-251515-
Norton Sound-
226 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-251515-
Dall Point to Wales-
226 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-251515-
Kotzebue Sound-
226 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-251515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
226 PM AKST Tue Nov 24 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

Nov 20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 PM AKST Sun Nov 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Our main focus today is on a system that will bring strong winds,
snow, blowing snow and to the west coast Tuesday into Wednesday.
This system also has the potential to bring elevated water levels
to areas along the coast, especially along the south coast of the
Seward Peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis..
The 22/12Z models generally initialized well when compared to the
surface analysis. The models are in good agreement out through
Monday. The models diverge in how they handle the the strong low
moving north over the western Bering Sea. The GFS has much
stronger winds than the other models and takes a more westerly
track. This track will limit the potential for snowfall pushing
into the western Interior. The ECMWF takes a more easterly track
and bring heavy snow further into the western Interior. The NAM is
more of the middle ground with this system. We opted to lean more
to the NAM with our forecast package today.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough stretches from eastern Russia, across
the Bering Strait and over the northern Interior. This trough
will push to the north tonight. A strong low will move north along
the Russian Coast Monday into Tuesday, reaching the Gulf of
Anadyr by Tuesday afternoon. A trough associated with this low
will reach the west coast of Alaska by Tuesday and will slowly
move north and east through Thursday. A ridge will build north
over the Interior on Tuesday. This ridge will be pushed east on
Wednesday by the aforementioned trough.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow is expected this evening north of the Yukon River as a
trough quickly moves to the north. Accumulations will generally
be light although a few spots could see around an inch of
accumulation. We will see clouds move back into the southern
Interior on Monday from a system moving through the Gulf of
Alaska. Skies should clear on Tuesday as high pressure moves over
the area resulting in colder valley temperatures. Tuesday evening
into Wednesday we expect the pressure gradient to tighten up
across the Alaska Range. We are expecting very strong winds
through the Alaska Range. Give the strength of the pressure
gradient we are expecting the strong southerly winds through
Isabel Pass to reach north to Delta Junction. We opted to issue
High Wind Watches from Tuesday evening through Wednesday for
zones 223, 225 226 and 227 in anticipation of the strong winds.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will reach St. Lawrence Island late Monday evening
and will reach the west coast early Tuesday. This system will
bring east to southeasterly winds with gusts in excess of 50 mph
to much of the coast Tuesday into early Wednesday. This system
will also bring snow to much of the coast. The Yukon Delta and St.
Lawrence Island may will see the snow change over to rain as the
event progresses,limiting the potential for heavy snow. The
southern coast of the Seward Peninsula looks to get the brunt of
the snowfall with this system, with the area around Nome possibly
seeing around 10 inches of snow before the precipitation changes
over to rain. Areas north of the Bering Strait will not see as
much precipitation with this system but will see the potential for
blizzard conditions. The front will push inland on Wednesday
bringing the potential for heavy snow to the western Interior.
With the afternoon forecast we changed the ongoing Winter Storm
Watch for the Yukon Delta to a Winter Weather Advisory. The
ongoing Winter Storm Watches for zones 211 and 213 were upgraded
to Winter Storm Warnings. We also added Winter Storm Watches for
zone 207, 215 and 216.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Aside from some fog overnight relatively quiet weather is
expected through Monday. A powerful front will move through the
Bering Strait on Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing east winds to
near gale force along the coast. However, no snow is expected, but
there will likely be some areas of significant blowing and
drifting snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A front will bring rises
in water levels on Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds will be from
the southeast, but expect high water levels along the Yukon Delta.
In Norton Sound and along the Bering Strait Coast, expect high
surf and beach erosion issues with water levels 3-5 feet above the
normal high tide.

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...
A front will push across the Interior on Thursday and the North
Slope Thursday night bringing chances for snowfall. Another strong
low looks to move across the southern Bering Sea on Friday and
into the Bristol Bay area Friday night and Saturday. This system
looks to bring gusty northeasterly winds to the west coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

NOV 20