Gale Warning 118, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 PM AKST Sun Nov 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Our main focus today is on a system that will bring strong winds,
snow, blowing snow and to the west coast Tuesday into Wednesday.
This system also has the potential to bring elevated water levels
to areas along the coast, especially along the south coast of the
Seward Peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis..
The 22/12Z models generally initialized well when compared to the
surface analysis. The models are in good agreement out through
Monday. The models diverge in how they handle the the strong low
moving north over the western Bering Sea. The GFS has much
stronger winds than the other models and takes a more westerly
track. This track will limit the potential for snowfall pushing
into the western Interior. The ECMWF takes a more easterly track
and bring heavy snow further into the western Interior. The NAM is
more of the middle ground with this system. We opted to lean more
to the NAM with our forecast package today.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough stretches from eastern Russia, across
the Bering Strait and over the northern Interior. This trough
will push to the north tonight. A strong low will move north along
the Russian Coast Monday into Tuesday, reaching the Gulf of
Anadyr by Tuesday afternoon. A trough associated with this low
will reach the west coast of Alaska by Tuesday and will slowly
move north and east through Thursday. A ridge will build north
over the Interior on Tuesday. This ridge will be pushed east on
Wednesday by the aforementioned trough.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow is expected this evening north of the Yukon River as a
trough quickly moves to the north. Accumulations will generally
be light although a few spots could see around an inch of
accumulation. We will see clouds move back into the southern
Interior on Monday from a system moving through the Gulf of
Alaska. Skies should clear on Tuesday as high pressure moves over
the area resulting in colder valley temperatures. Tuesday evening
into Wednesday we expect the pressure gradient to tighten up
across the Alaska Range. We are expecting very strong winds
through the Alaska Range. Give the strength of the pressure
gradient we are expecting the strong southerly winds through
Isabel Pass to reach north to Delta Junction. We opted to issue
High Wind Watches from Tuesday evening through Wednesday for
zones 223, 225 226 and 227 in anticipation of the strong winds.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will reach St. Lawrence Island late Monday evening
and will reach the west coast early Tuesday. This system will
bring east to southeasterly winds with gusts in excess of 50 mph
to much of the coast Tuesday into early Wednesday. This system
will also bring snow to much of the coast. The Yukon Delta and St.
Lawrence Island may will see the snow change over to rain as the
event progresses,limiting the potential for heavy snow. The
southern coast of the Seward Peninsula looks to get the brunt of
the snowfall with this system, with the area around Nome possibly
seeing around 10 inches of snow before the precipitation changes
over to rain. Areas north of the Bering Strait will not see as
much precipitation with this system but will see the potential for
blizzard conditions. The front will push inland on Wednesday
bringing the potential for heavy snow to the western Interior.
With the afternoon forecast we changed the ongoing Winter Storm
Watch for the Yukon Delta to a Winter Weather Advisory. The
ongoing Winter Storm Watches for zones 211 and 213 were upgraded
to Winter Storm Warnings. We also added Winter Storm Watches for
zone 207, 215 and 216.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Aside from some fog overnight relatively quiet weather is
expected through Monday. A powerful front will move through the
Bering Strait on Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing east winds to
near gale force along the coast. However, no snow is expected, but
there will likely be some areas of significant blowing and
drifting snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A front will bring rises
in water levels on Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds will be from
the southeast, but expect high water levels along the Yukon Delta.
In Norton Sound and along the Bering Strait Coast, expect high
surf and beach erosion issues with water levels 3-5 feet above the
normal high tide.

Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...
A front will push across the Interior on Thursday and the North
Slope Thursday night bringing chances for snowfall. Another strong
low looks to move across the southern Bering Sea on Friday and
into the Bristol Bay area Friday night and Saturday. This system
looks to bring gusty northeasterly winds to the west coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

NOV 20