Gale Warning 119, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
543 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The calm before the storm, as they say. This is the calm before
another North Pacific storm unleashes its fury across parts of
Western Alaska beginning Monday evening, spreading north along
the West Coast through Tuesday night, then moving eastward into
the Interior Wednesday and Thursday. The most potential energy
will be unleashed over the West Coast where near storm force
winds, high surf, some elevated water levels, and heavy snow with
blowing snow will impact many locations. Some warm air will bring
rain to parts of the Yukon Delta and Bering Coast/Saint Lawrence
Island, as well. This storm is the obvious focus of this forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
The NPAC is putting on a show this morning as a powerful
hurricane force bomb cyclone moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This
storm is completely missing the Interior, although the pressure
gradient it is forcing is inducing a weak Tanana Valley Jet and
some breezy southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range. The remnants
of a weakening shortwave trough which brought snow to the Eastern
Interior yesterday morning has moved to the Eastern Brooks Range.
Weak southerly flow/troughing aloft is moving over the West Coast.
Looking much further west, an occluded low is clearly visible on
satellite over the Kamchatka, with a trailing warm conveyor
belt/subtropical warm front along its periphery moving northeast.
This is the next storm which will impact the West Coast beginning
Monday night.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models have not changed much overall over
the past 24 hours, which means they remain in poor agreement with
the significant storm expected to move into the West Coast Monday
and Tuesday, then inland Wednesday and Thursday. The one trend
from yesterday is all model solutions are shifting west with the
low track, and they are also trending stronger, with the strongest
model solutions dropping below 950 mb as the surface low tracks
into the Gulf of Anadyr and the Bering Strait. This affects the
amount of warm frontal snow that moves into the Western Interior,
as well as the strongest winds. For this forecast, we continue to
favor a "middle ground" approach, with the NAM 06z continuing to
situate between the west/strong GFS and weaker hi-res WRF
solutions. However, the forecast was shifted west as well as
stronger in the wind fields over the West Coast and Bering.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High clouds with some low stratus over river valleys is over most
of the region this morning. A strong Gulf low will move into the
Panhandle this evening with a very subtle easterly wave tracking
into the far southeast Interior late this afternoon and evening.
This will spread some very light snow into the Northway area and
possibly as far north as Eagle. Cold high pressure builds in
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A strong Bering storm will begin to
move east on Wednesday, and this will induce a very strong
pressure gradient across the Alaska Range. The Tanana Valley jet
will also increase to near 45-60 MPH through favored areas such as
Delta Junction. The gradient will relax Wed night as the trough
shifts east, also bringing precipitation to the Interior with
predominantly snow although some mixed rain/snow is possible. Stay
tuned...

West Coast and Western Interior...
The big show is about to begin as a powerful NPAC cyclone moves
northeast into the Bering Strait, with the leading warm front
bring the first shot of winter weather with heavy snow and strong
east winds bringing a combo of snow and blowing snow. Parts of
northern Norton Sound will likely see a foot or more of snow with
significant blowing and drifting. Expect a changeover to rain
along the Yukon Delta, Saint Lawrence Island, and along the
immediate Bering Strait coast. As the front lifts north,
significant blowing snow will move into Kotzebue Sound, and with
falling snow, expect near blizzard conditions by Tuesday morning
as east winds increase to 45-60 mph. The front moves east into
the Interior on Wednesday, bringing accumulating snow with a mix
of snow/freezing rain over parts of the Yukon Valley Tue night and
Wed.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet weather over the Slope continues with areas of stratus and
fog. Fog, however, is mostly located along the immediate coast as
easterly winds advect moisture inland off ice leads. A strong
front will move up along the NOrthwest Arctic coast, and this will
induce a strong easterly pressure gradient on Tuesday and lasting
through Thu. Expect gale force winds with gusts approaching 45-50
mph along much of the immediate coast. Expect some local areas of
blowing and drifting snow with some light snow accumulations over
the far western coast beginning Wednesday evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A front will bring rises
in water levels on Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds will be from
the southeast, but expect high water levels along the Yukon Delta.
In Norton Sound and along the Bering Strait Coast, expect high
surf and beach erosion issues with water levels 3-5 feet above the
normal high tide.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

High Surf Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ216.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ215.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.

Storm Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ200.

&&

AHSENMACHER NOV 20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1240 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

AKZ207-241500-
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
1240 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...Elevated Water Near Shishmaref and Along Chukchi Sea Coast
Tuesday through Thursday...

Water levels are expected to rise 2 to 3 feet above the normal
high tide line at Shishmaref and along the Chukchi Sea Coast from
Tuesday through Thursday. Southeast winds of 25 to 50 mph will
accompany the high water Tuesday and Wednesday, before turning
southwest and decreasing Wednesday night. Similar situations in
the past have caused erosion on Inlet side of Shishmaref, but not
on the northwest side which faces the ocean.

Residents are encourage to move belongings well inland from
beaches and shorelines.

For the latest forecast please visit weather.gov/fairbanks.

AKZ212-241500-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
Including Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
and Shaktoolik
1240 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...Elevated Water Tonight through Wednesday Morning...

Water levels are expected to rise 2 to 3 feet above the normal
high tide line tonight through Tuesday night. Strong southeast
winds of 25 to 40 mph are expected to develop tonight and continue
through Tuesday night and will accompany the high water. This
could lead to beach erosion.

Residents are encourage to move belongings well inland from
beaches and shorelines.

For the latest forecast please visit weather.gov/fairbanks.