Gale Warning 654, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 14, 2020, 2:43 PM AKST (23:43 UTC)

Expired

Nov 15, 2020, 3:15 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

179 
FZAK51 PAFC 142343
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151215-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 mb low 100 nm southwest of Middleton Island moves through the 
southern Gulf at 1007 mb by Mon afternoon. Several troughs move over
the Gulf through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-151215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Higher winds and seas near the
Copper River Delta. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Higher winds and seas near the Copper
River Delta. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Higher winds and seas near
Resurrection Bay. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Higher winds and seas near 
Resurrection Bay.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151215-
Resurrection Bay-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151215-
Prince William Sound-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151215-
Port Valdez-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151215-
Valdez Narrows-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151215-
Valdez Arm-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151215-
Passage Canal-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to
30 kt near Whittier in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts
up to 30 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151215-
Barren Islands East-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 7 
ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt except 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt except 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 9 
ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151215-
Chiniak Bay-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151215-
Marmot Bay-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151215-
Shelikof Strait-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151215-
Kachemak Bay-
243 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 14, 4:40 AM AKST, 10 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A similar pattern remains in place across southern Alaska this
morning with generally weak synoptic flow aloft. There is a broad
upper level low over the central Gulf of Alaska. Some weak upper
level ridging is present over the Copper River Basin this morning.
Some moisture is trapped underneath this weak ridge keeping a low
stratus deck across much of the Basin. Due to the weak synoptic
flow aloft and broad upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska, some
energy rotating northwestward in between the ridge and low is
creating some flurries and light snow showers for the Matanuska
Valley and Anchorage Bowl. As a result of the stagnant pattern, a
low stratus deck and areas of fog remain present across the Mat
Valley and Anchorage Bowl especially where it isn't flurrying or
snowing lightly.

For Southwest Alaska, a weak surface low was present near Kipnuk
moving southeastward towards Bristol Bay. This is generating some
light snow showers and low clouds across the Yukon-Kuskokwim
Delta. The Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay remain in between any
system keeping the area quiet with a mostly clear to partly
cloudy sky being observed. Some low clouds and fog were being
observed around King Salmon this morning as well.

Over the Bering Sea and Aleutians, an upper level ridge was
present beginning to build northward across the western Aleutians
and western Bering. Downstream of this ridge cold air was seen
being pushed southward across much of the Bering. This cold air
can be seen on the nighttime microphysics imagery as cumulus
clouds denoting an unstable atmosphere as this cold air advection
aloft moves across a relatively warm water surface. Some of these
may grow enough to produce snow/rain showers across the Bering and
along the Aleutian Chain. These showers are occasionally lowering
visibility and bringing lower ceilings to communities along the
Chain. Also, due to the northerly flow and cold air advection,
breezy conditions are occurring throughout much of the Bering and
the Aleutian Chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(short term)...

Models remain in great agreement on the synoptic scale features
out through Day 3. All guidance is in agreement on a storm force
low moving towards Amchitka Sunday night into early Monday. Model
guidance also agrees on a quiet but colder pattern for Southcentral
with outflow gap winds being the main concern the next couple
days. Also of concern for Southcentral today is how long and how
widespread the low stratus/fog will be and how long it will last
into the day. This will most likely be monitored by satellite
imagery and obs and updated accordingly. One other item to note is
light snow that was occurring across the Anchorage Bowl and how
long this would last into the morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light snow and mist moving over the terminal this morning
is bringing LIFR conditions. This is expected to continue
especially while it is snowing. When the snow stops, ceilings may
rise to IFR/MVFR conditions with visibilites in the VFR range. It
is not until early Sunday morning that conditions at the terminal
are expected to greatly improve to VFR conditions. Light winds
will prevail throughout the TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The elongated surface low along the north Gulf coast is the main
weather feature again this morning. There are some smaller lows
embedded in this low which are causing some rain and snow showers
along the coast.

The upper level flow is very weak easterly flow over Southcentral
Alaska. This has brought some very weak short waves over the
Anchorage area overnight producing some light snowfall. These
waves are very weak and have not triggered snow along all areas,
but the lower level atmosphere in far north Cook Inlet was ripe
for the moisture to precipitate out as these waves moves across.
It is likely that most of the snow that will fall has already
done so, but there is a chance in weak flow like this for the
snow to linger on-and-off for longer than expected.

The pattern will shift some tonight into Sunday and increase the
northerly flow aloft as well as the pressure gradient along the
north Gulf coast. This should bring more widespread clearing over
Southcentral Sunday and increase winds in areas such as Valdez,
Seward, and the Matanuska Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday
morning through Monday)...

The upper level trough over Southwest Alaska will push a cold
front south today. Light snow will continue over the Kuskokwim
Delta ending by this afternoon with an additional inch or two of
snow possible. Skies will begin to clear tonight which will allow
the temperatures to drop into the lower teens and single digits.
Colder air will dominate the area through early next week as high
pressure moves towards the area Sunday night and Monday. Fog is
possible across the Kuskokwim Delta Sunday night into Monday with
light onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday morning through Monday)...

A cold front will bring rain and snow showers from the Pribilofs
southward to the central and eastern Aleutians with some light
snow accumulations of up to an inch possible. Saturday night,
showers will taper off in most areas as a ridge of high pressure
moves across the Bering through Sunday. Sunday afternoon through
Monday, a storm force low will move towards the western Aleutians
bringing areas of moderate to heavy rain and Gale to Storm force
winds. This low will weaken to Gales as it moves north and east
into the Bering Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Small craft winds are expected across the Gulf Monday. There is
increasing confidence that a low over the southeastern Gulf
retrogrades to the northwest, bringing the potential for northerly
gale force winds across the central Gulf Tuesday night into
Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a gale force front approaches the
Gulf from the west.

Bering Sea:

A storm force low enters the western Bering Monday and lifts into
the northern Bering by Monday night. Southerly gales and storm
force winds can be expected over the western and central Bering
waters. There is increasing confidence that a second storm force
low enters the western Bering Tuesday afternoon and phases with
the first. This results in a broad complex low bringing gales and
storm force winds to the Bering waters through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A large, amplified upper level ridge in place over the eastern
Bering will extend over the western mainland Tuesday afternoon.
Farther west, a strong upper level low and its associated surface
low will push a front eastward across the Bering, bringing warm
southerly flow and rain to the Aleutian Chain Tuesday into
Wednesday. A broad complex low will be in place across the Bering
Sea by Wednesday morning with an ample supply of cold air filling
in on the backside. Upper level shortwaves embedded within this
low will eject eastward across the southern mainland beginning
Wednesday night. Model solutions continue to struggle with the
timing and track of several of these features, however the bottom
line is that an active weather pattern is likely to persist across
southern Alaska through Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Special Weather Statement 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 411 172 176 177
Storm Warning 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2020Every gale warning in 2020

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.