Gale Warning 653, NWS Anchorage, AK

673 
FZAK52 PAFC 150029
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151330-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb North Pacific low complex merges to form a 968 mb low 
325 nm south of Attu Sun afternoon, then moves to 210 nm north of 
Adak at 988 mb for Mon afternoon. Its front moves into the Central 
Bering and Aleutians Mon afternoon. A 986 mb North Pacific low 
approaches the Western Aleutians Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151330-
Bristol Bay-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151330-
Unalaska Bay-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 24 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151330-
Adak to Kiska-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151330-
Kiska to Attu-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Bering
side, seas 13 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Pac side,
seas 16 ft building to 26 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain 
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
28 ft subsiding to 22 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
329 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... S 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 PM AKST Fri Nov 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper trough aloft extends westward from the Gulf of
Alaska to over the East-Central Bering Sea. At the surface, low
pressure continues over the the Gulf with a south moving low near
the Kuskokwim Delta. Showers...mostly rain showers, are over the
Gulf and Bering Sea/Aleutians/AK Pen, with rain and snow showers
over the Kuskokwim Delta. Low stratus and fog that developed over
the Anchorage Bowl with the passage of yesterday's system
continued into the afternoon hours today. Low stratus also
developed over the Copper River Basin this morning and held on
into the afternoon hours. Gusty outflow winds continued over the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula with with fairly brisk westerly flow
across the Western Gulf. Satellite imagery showed a fairly broad
area of open cell cumulus across the Aleutians/Western Bering Sea
associated with cold advection.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION(short term)...
Southcentral...Models are in generally good agreement with the
synoptic features. The main issues will be gap/outflow winds which
will be generally handled best by the high res models.

Out West...Models are in relatively good agreement on the storm
force flow heading toward the Western Aleutians Saturday night
into Sunday. Models differ after that into Monday with the NAM
being the main outlier.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR/LIFR conditions in fog during the overnight and morning
hours expected once again. Some improvement likely in the
afternoon Saturday. Light winds will prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Light winds and saturation at low levels will continue to bring
fog in the Anchorage area overnight into early Saturday morning.
This will also keep temperatures steady near 30. A broad low
stalled in the Gulf is bringing isolated to scattered rain/snow
showers along the coast through western Prince William Sound.
These will gradually end Saturday as relatively higher pressure
builds to the north and pushes the showers farther offshore.
Northerly flow will increase through the weekend and persist into
early next week. Gusty winds are likely in terrain gaps as well as
the city of Valdez. However, they are likely to remain non-
impactful given the lack of upper level forcing. Elsewhere,
clearing skies and cooler temperatures are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday
through Monday)...

An upper level trough that has been stuck over the region for the
past couple of days will move southward tonight as an arctic front
pushes in. This will bring an end to the snow showers across the
Kuskokwim Delta and usher in a considerably colder airmass and
offshore flow for late Saturday through Sunday. For Sunday night
into Monday, a ridge of high pressure will build into Southwest
Alaska. As it does so, weak onshore flow develops along with
warmer air moving in aloft. This will create a favorable setup for
fog on Monday across much the Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday morning through Monday)...

On Saturday, an upper ridge will build across the western Bering,
with an arctic front quickly pushing southward through the
eastern Bering/Aleutians by mid-morning. Behind this front, cold
advection will set the stage for widespread snow showers across
the Bering and the Eastern Aleutians/AKPEN. Some light
accumulations are expected.

On Sunday, a Gale force low will approach the Western Aleutians
bringing widespread rainfall. Northerly flow/cold advection will
weaken across the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN causing the snow showers
to taper off.

For Monday, a ridge of high pressure moves into the Eastern
Bering as the Western Aleutians storm system lifts towards the
Pribilofs while gradually weakening. Expect gale force wind gusts
across the central Bering/Aleutians early, but decreasing below
Gales late day as the storm weakens.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Small craft winds are expected across the Gulf Monday. There is
increasing confidence that a low over the southeastern Gulf
retrogrades to the northwest, bringing the potential for northerly
gale force winds across the central Gulf Tuesday night into
Wednesday. By Wednesday night, a gale force front approaches the
Gulf from the west.

Bering Sea:

A storm force low enters the western Bering Monday and lifts into
the northern Bering by Monday night. Southerly gales and storm
force winds can be expected over the western and central Bering
waters. There is increasing confidence that a second storm force
low enters the western Bering Tuesday afternoon and phases with
the first. This results in a broad complex low bringing gales and
storm force winds to the Bering waters through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A large, amplified upper level ridge in place over the eastern
Bering will extend over the western mainland Tuesday afternoon.
Farther west, a strong upper level low and its associated surface
low will push a front eastward across the Bering, bringing warm
southerly flow and rain to the Aleutian Chain Tuesday into
Wednesday. A broad complex low will be in place across the Bering
Sea by Wednesday morning with an ample supply of cold air filling
in on the backside. Upper level shortwaves embedded within this
low will eject eastward across the southern mainland beginning
Wednesday night. Model solutions continue to struggle with the
timing and track of several of these features, however the bottom
line is that an active weather pattern is likely to persist across
southern Alaska through Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 172,174,178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BG
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO