Gale Warning 652, NWS Anchorage, AK

478 
FZAK52 PAFC 141242
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150200-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 mb low 315 nm northeast of Saint Paul moves over Bristol Bay at
1000 mb by Saturday morning and then exits the Bering Saturday 
afternoon. A 975 mb North Pacific low 420 nm southwest of Attu
Island moves 60 nm southwest of Amchitka at 978 mb by Sun night.

$$

PKZ150-150200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt, Seas 9 ft. Except W 20 kt from the Shumagin 
Islands E. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150200-
Bristol Bay-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150200-
Unalaska Bay-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt by afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 6 ft by afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt by afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft by afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150200-
Adak to Kiska-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150200-
Kiska to Attu-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt becoming S wind 20 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Bering
side, seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Pac side, seas 
16 ft building to 25 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt decreasing to 10 kt by afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft by afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
342 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKST Fri Nov 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low is present over the eastern Gulf of Alaska
this morning. The core of the jet stream remains to the south of
this upper level low over the North Pacific. Some weak embedded
upper level waves around this broad upper level low are
responsible for bringing some flurries and light snow showers to
the Anchorage Bowl down to the Kenai Peninsula along with some
ever subtle weak cold air advection helping to ring out what
moisture is in the atmosphere. In general, these flurries/light
snow showers were producing only traces to around 0.1" of snow.
The Copper River Basin remains under weak upper level ridging this
morning leading to some breaks in the clouds over the area.

Kodiak Island remains in stout west to northwest flow due to a
tight pressure gradient present with Kodiak experiencing gusty
west winds upwards of 35-40 kt (40-45 mph at times) this morning.

There was an upper level low also present just west of Nunivak
Island with weak upper level troughing over Southwest Alaska. This
is creating upslope flow against the Kuskokwim Mountains leading
to rain/snow showers. A relatively tight pressure gradient is
present across the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta leading to general 10-20
kt winds across the area and gusts as high as 25 kts especially
along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

General west-northwesterly flow is present across much of the
Bering Sea leading to breezy conditions with some small crafts
this morning. Cold air advection flowing across the relatively
warm water surface is leading to cumulus clouds throughout the
Bering Sea with some of these producing an occasional rain/snow
shower. There was a shortwave also present moving swiftly eastward
across the eastern Aleutians this morning bringing a few rain
showers and gusty winds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (short term through day 3)...

Models remain in very good agreement on the synoptic scale
features through Day 2. The main concern will remain the outflow
wind conditions as a colder air mass moves back into Southcentral.
Therefore, latest hi-res model guidance and hand edits will be
the main changes if any made to the forecast. Sunday and Sunday
night, all model guidance is showing a strong low moving into the
Aleutian Chain and then into the Bering Sea. However, since the
last model cycles and forecast update, models have since come into
a bit better agreement on this low and where it will track. They
still remain different on the exact intensity and exact track,
though, latest guidance is suggesting this low moving near or
directly over Amchitka Sun night/early Monday. All model guidance
shows gales with this system moving through the Aleutian Chain and
into the Bering Sea. NAM, GFS, and Canadian-NH all show storm
force winds in the boundary layer which may require an upgrade to
storm force winds in future updates as the track and intensity
comes into better agreement. The only one that remains weaker for
now is the ECMWF with just low end gales.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...LIFR ceilings have moved over the terminal this morning
with pockets of fog around the area. Fog is reducing visibilities
to 1/2-1 mi at times. Fog is expected to persist over the terminal
into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Fog is expected to
lift early afternoon into a low stratus deck keeping MVFR ceilings
over the terminal. VFR conditions are expected beginning this
evening through the remainder of the TAF package. Light winds will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The strongest weather feature on the map over Southcentral Alaska
this morning is the surface low near the north Gulf coast just
east of Middleton Island. This low has a tight pressure gradient
to its southwest which is causing the strong winds over Kodiak
Island and much of the Gulf of Alaska. Farther to the north, the
pressure gradient is not very strong, especially in the upper
levels. this is keeping winds though channeled terrain to only
around 20 to 30 mph along the north Gulf coast.

The upper level trough axis stretches from near Middleton Island
to Anchorage and to the northwest. This is keeping some fog and
flurries in the Anchorage area with some light snowfall over the
Kenai Peninsula early this morning. The weak flow aloft over
inland portions of Southcentral north of the trough axis is
slowing any clearing over the inland areas as well.

Clearing and colder weather is expected to develop across the
area over the course of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday
morning through Sunday)...

Unstable air is flowing across coastal areas and east towards
Bristol Bay with a few rain and snow showers. An upper level
trough over northern Alaska is supporting a cold front sitting
over Norton Sound and northern Alaska. This cold front will
slowly move south today and will be over Bristol Bay by Saturday
morning. This will produce some light snow from Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning, but accumulations will be light
generally less than an inch across the Kuskokwim Delta to the
Bristol Bay area. This front will bring much colder air to the
area as we begin the weekend with temperatures dropping Friday and
Saturday. Sunday will be dry and colder with clearing skies as
high pressure pushes in from the Bering Sea.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Friday morning through Sunday)...

Westerly flow continues across the Bering and Aleutians with a
couple of shortwave troughs over the southern Bering Sea producing
areas of showers. Temperatures will be from 35 to 40 so a mix of
rain and snow showers are likely. A stronger trough will move out
of Russia. This trough combined with a cold front sitting over
the northern Bering Sea this morning will begin to move south
today spreading colder air and snow showers across the Bering
through Saturday. Some of the central and eastern Aleutian
Islands may get a dusting to perhaps up to an inch of snow on
Saturday in a few locations where heavier snow showers occur. As
we head into Sunday a ridge of high pressure will move across the
Bering as the next low pressure system begins to bring at least
Gale force winds and possibly storm force winds to the eastern
Aleutians and eastern Bering Sea.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Gusty northwesterly gale force winds over Kamishak Bay and the
Barren Islands will continue through the day Sunday before
tapering off Monday morning. Small craft winds will linger during
the day Tuesday across the Gulf waters before a low begins to
retrograde westward across the northern Gulf. There is low
confidence with this system, however gusty northerly flow is
looking increasingly likely across the northern Gulf waters
beginning Tuesday afternoon.

Bering Sea:

There is increasing confidence that a storm force low will enter
the western Bering Sunday morning, forcing a ridge eastward. Gale
force northerly winds over the eastern Bering will last through
Sunday before diminishing Sunday night. The low will track
eastward, spreading storm force winds across the Bering waters
through Monday. There is increasing confidence gale force winds
will persist across the Bering waters through Tuesday as this
broad complex low gradually lifts northward.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long terms starts with a large, amplified upper level ridge
in place over the eastern Bering and extending over the western
mainland. Upstream, a well developed surface low over the central
Aleutians will bring warm southerly flow and rain to the Aleutian
Chain Monday into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, a strong upper
level low originating from over Siberia quickly pushes eastward
and phases with the remnant upper level energy from the Aleutian
low. By Tuesday night, a broad complex low will be in place across
the Bering Sea with an ample supply of cold air filling in on the
backside. Upper level shortwaves embedded within this low will
eject eastward across the southern mainland beginning Wednesday
night. Although model solutions show great timing discrepancies,
this pattern sets the stage for an active weather pattern ahead
with the potential for development of several areas of low
pressure.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Special Weather Statement 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 351 352 130 131 132 172 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKST Fri Nov 13 2020

AKZ145-170100-
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
148 PM AKST Fri Nov 13 2020

...FREEZE UP ICE JAM ON THE TALKEETNA RIVER...

There is a freeze up ice jam on the Talkeetna River which is
currently causing flooding of two residences in East Talkeetna
along Mercedes Drive. Be alert for changing conditions as water
levels will fluctuate as the ice jam shifts.

In the event that flooding becomes worse, notify the Talkeetna
Fire Chief and/or the Matsu Borough.