Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Another round of severe weather is likely late this afternoon and
evening across the CWA. Heavy rain is also a possibility. By late
afternoon/early evening, the front should extend from just west
of ABR southwest to just west of PIR. Showers/storms should erupt
along this boundary. The main focus initially may be over the
Missouri valley where a stronger LLJ should focus into the early
evening. After mid-evening, the LLJ seems to lose focus and this
should lead to a downturn in svr probs. However, up to that point
there will be plenty of moisture/instability across the entire
region for any convection to work off of. Deep layer shear will
remain the strongest over portions of north central SD and
possibly as far east as the northern James Valley. Cell movement
is expected to be somewhat slow, and this could lead to some
hefty rain amounts given pwats approaching 1.8 inches. Will need
to keep this in mind, especially over areas that got a lot of rain
last night.

For Monday, expect lingering morning convection over the CWA, but
as the morning wears on expect the pcpn to end as weak frontal
boundary shifts to the southern part of the state. However, WAA
returns to especially the western CWA Monday night with a renewed
chance for overnight convection. Model blend temperatures looks
fine at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Mid 80s to low 90s will continue for highs through the forecast
period. While lows will mainly be in the 60s, low 70s will be likely
Wednesday morning. Off and on showers and thunderstorms will
continue. Dry weather will be more likely Thursday through Friday
morning, and again Saturday night through Sunday night.

By 12Z Tuesday, a 500mb ridge will be over NM up through
NE, with more zonal flow across the Dakotas and MN. Expect the ridge
to briefly build up through the cwa during the day/early evening
hours Tuesday. The next 500mb low across southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan Wednesday morning will cross into southern
Manitoba on Thursday, and exit into Ontario Friday. The result will
be a ridge building back across the Northern Plains from the
southwestern U.S. Friday through Sunday. The only exception to this
ridge looks to be Friday night, with a trough briefly moving in from
the northwest.

Near the surface the area of high pressure over our far northeastern
counties will be exiting the weather picture. We're still looking at
the potential for strong waa with a 40-50 knot LLJ Tuesday night-
Wednesday that could help spark additional storms. At this point the
best chance is along the ND/SD border and north. The cold front look
to cross the eastern counties during the day Wednesday, with the
chance of showers/storms lingering there through Wednesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
area through the evening and overnight hours. Some of the storms
could be strong to severe with hail and strong winds. Periods of
MVFR vsbys will be possible with the thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

***Construction to improve the taxiway for runway 13 at the KPIR
terminal may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037.

MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
503 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-061015-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
503 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /403 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Expect a cold front to be the main focus for thunderstorm
development initially this afternoon, although an expanded area of
thunderstorms is possible later in the evening. Some storms may be
severe with strong winds in excess of 70 mph and hail the size of
golf balls or larger possible. Heavy rain is also a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The front will stall on Monday, with additional thunderstorm
development possible in the afternoon and evening, mainly for parts
of southeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
537 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE MURDO             43.91N 100.63W
07/05/2020                   JONES              SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI TRUCK BLOWN OVER.

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
613 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             7 SSW HARROLD           44.43N 99.80W
07/05/2020  M1.25 INCH       HUGHES             SD   STORM CHASER

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW VIVIAN             43.85N 100.41W
07/05/2020  E60 MPH          JONES              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KF