Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
914 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Still seeing some thunderstorm activity across mainly the central
part of the CWA, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in
place through midnight. Fairly quiet conditions occurring across
the rest of the area. No changes made to winds or temperatures at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

The main forecast concern through the period will be thunderstorm
chances. For late this afternoon into tonight, expecting
convection to fire up way out west over the front range where
better s/w energy and deep layer shear is progged. In the east,
there are several outflow boundaries to deal with. One from this
morning's convection has drifted into the Coteau region of NE SD.
Another outflow is sliding south in eastern ND. Yet another
boundary (perhaps slightly elevated) appears be sliding E/se
through west river areas of Dewey/Corson counties. Any of those
boundaries could fire up toward evening once moderate to strong
instability is realized across the region. CAMS have kinda keyed
in on a boundary across southern ND which is where cu is forming
now. This may be where the initial storms develop this evening and
then build south into the ABR CWA. With shear somewhat on the
marginal side, the main threat from afternoon/overnight convection
should be hail and wind, and the storms may prove somewhat
pulsey, and move/develop erratically. A brief tornado is also
possible if any supercells form along that east/west front in
southern ND. Lastly, a moderate LLJ, especially along and west of
the James valley will likely support convection coming off the
High Plains into the overnight hours.

On Sunday the synoptic scale boundary moves east into the CWA during
the day, and will likely provide the lift for more storms in the
afternoon and evening. Again, deep layer shear isn't the greatest,
but moisture and instability will be plentiful such that some severe
storms are anticipated. Probably a bit more coverage of storms
Sunday afternoon and evening as any capping is diminished due to
falling heights/cooling mid level temps. Overall, temperatures
should remain near to above normal through Sunday and the model
blend numbers look pretty good overall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

By 12Z Monday, the southwest to northeast boundary will be set up
from south central SD through our MN counties, with west to
southwesterly flow at 500mb ahead of a low nearing from south
central Canada. Just how quickly the surface trough will sink
southeast of the forecast area during the day is a concern. At
this point it's expected to reside to our south by 21Z. However,
an additional surface low near the Black Hills will help to push
the front back up north across central South Dakota Tuesday night.
A weak 500mb ridge will also be overhead Tuesday. Expect the
surface trough to move over the rest of the forecast areas during
the daytime hours Wednesday, accompanied by another 500mb wave in
the otherwise southwesterly to zonal flow. While a brief surface
ridge does look to build in mainly over MN Thursday/Friday work
week, unsettled weather will likely return as small disturbances
eject out of the west and across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, with the best
chances for strong to severe storms over the northern part of the
area. Storms will again be possible Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail tonight into the day Sunday.

***Construction to improve the taxiway for runway 13 at the KPIR
terminal may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
440 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-050945-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
440 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020 /340 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to potential severe storms can be expected over north-central
South Dakota through the morning hours today. Winds, exceeding 60 mph
and small hail will be possible with these storms.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible tonight, mainly for
locations north of Highway 212. Gusty winds and hail will be possible
with some storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible late Sunday afternoon
through the evening hours. Large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter,
and gusty winds of 60-70 mph will be the main severe threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
819 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MINA               45.46N 98.73W
07/04/2020  M50 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
826 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MINA               45.46N 98.73W
07/04/2020  M66 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DAMAGE WAS ALSO REPORTED AT MINA LAKE.

&&

RL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
829 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SDZ009-050215-
Walworth SD-
829 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALWORTH COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

At 828 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Selby, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Selby, Akaska, Lowry, New Everets Resort and Lake Hiddenwood Rec
Area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4557 9989 4529 9999 4535 10029 4539 10028
      4543 10032 4559 10016 4559 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 010DEG 17KT 4552 10004

Lueck

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
854 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINA                    45.44N 98.76W
07/04/2020                   EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAMPER TIPPED OVER AND EVERGREEN TREE
            SNAPPED. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
925 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW CHELSEA            45.13N 98.81W
07/04/2020  M70 MPH          FAULK              SD   MESONET

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             5 SSE JAVA              45.44N 99.84W
07/04/2020  M1.00 INCH       WALWORTH           SD   PUBLIC

&&

KF