Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Active late April severe weather ongoing with numerous warnings at
this time. Surface boundary has remained quasi-stationary from
parts of northeast OK just north of Tulsa into southwestern OK,
with discrete/semi-discrete thunderstorms within the large warm
sector across the region. Southwesterly 0-6km bulk shear on the
order of 40-50 kts has been favorable for rotating supercells both
near and ahead of the surface boundary, and this will persist
through the remainder of the afternoon. Bulk of CAM solutions
suggests that the activity will eventually develop into a few
lines/clusters of storms, with the activity eventually surging
east/southeast into parts of western Arkansas and southeast OK.

Deep-layered southwesterly flow parallel to the surface boundary
along with unseasonably high PWATs on the order of 2 inches will
also result in areas of heavy rainfall and flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch will remain in effect through the night, and later shifts
may need to extend into Wednesday if deemed necessary.

Coverage/severity of convection on Wednesday remains quite
uncertain at this time. While ongoing convection early Wednesday
may work over the atmosphere to some degree, atmospheric
conditions will remain favorable tomorrow afternoon for additional
severe weather.

Weather pattern will remain active late week with the forecast
area remaining along the southerly edge of the stronger
westerlies. Storm chances appear to favor the southern portions of
the region during the Thursday/Friday time-frame. Low storm chance
were maintained for most of the extended forecast as the active
westerly/northwesterly upper flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  79  63  76 /  90  40  50  50
FSM   66  80  65  79 /  90  60  60  60
MLC   65  78  64  79 /  90  60  60  50
BVO   61  78  59  72 /  80  40  60  30
FYV   64  77  62  76 /  90  60  50  60
BYV   63  79  62  76 /  90  60  50  60
MKO   64  79  63  77 /  90  50  50  50
MIO   63  78  61  73 /  80  50  60  50
F10   65  78  63  78 /  90  50  50  50
HHW   66  79  65  78 /  80  60  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

...Severe Weather Ongoing with Flooding Possible Late This
Afternoon into Tonight...
...Flash Flood Watch in Effect Through Tonight...

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will persist along and ahead of
a stalled frontal boundary across northeast Oklahoma late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. These storms pose a tornado
threat into the early evening hours, especially for any storms
near the stalled front or any discrete cells. Thunderstorms are
expected to eventually develop into several clusters or lines
later this evening and overnight, and shift into portions of
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The main threat will
transition to damaging winds, although isolated tornadoes will
remain possible along the leading edge of any thunderstorm line.

Locally heavy rainfall will also occur as thunderstorms train
from southwest to northeast. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches are expected, along with locally higher amounts.
This will result in some flash flooding along with some main
stem river flooding as well.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances are forecast to continue into Wednesday with
the greater potential shifting into southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Wednesday afternoon and night. Large hail, damaging winds
and very heavy rainfall will again be possible in the stronger
storms.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management officials should be prepared for the
potential of severe weather and flooding today into Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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