Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
MCS continues to make steady progress south and east across the
forecast area. Expect this will be the main show for today with
little chance of redevelopment in its wake. Will likely see some
intensification of storms from southeast Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas by early afternoon, and this is where the main
severe weather threat will be for the rest of today.

Have adjusted pops for the rest of today based on current trends.
Will leave afternoon highs as is for now, but will monitor
temperature trends over the next few hours.

Update on the way.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
451 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This morning.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across far eastern Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas will continue to produce areas of locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail through daybreak.

Additional areas of thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma will
move east into northeast Oklahoma early this morning. An isolated
brief tornado along the leading edge of the storms can't be
ruled out, although the main threat early this morning will be
from damaging winds. Thunderstorms will gradually strengthen later
this morning and into the afternoon as they track across southeast
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Damaging winds and large hail be
the main concern, along with isolated tornadoes this afternoon
mainly across parts of southeast Oklahoma.

Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected through the day, with
much of the region expected to receive an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rain. This will lead to areas of flooding and possible flash
flooding.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be exiting southeast Oklahoma late tonight
into early Monday morning. Low chances for mainly diurnal
showers and thunderstorms will persist through all of next
week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ065>068-070-071-231515-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Cherokee OK-Okfuskee OK-Wagoner OK-
McIntosh OK-
930 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCINTOSH...SOUTHEASTERN
WAGONER...CENTRAL CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...SOUTHERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 929 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Hulbert to 6 miles south of
Bearden. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Tahlequah...
Okmulgee...                       Wagoner...
Okemah...                         Henryetta...
Fort Gibson...                    Checotah...
Haskell...                        Warner...
Morris...                         Weleetka...
Dewar...                          Okay...
Hulbert...                        Porter...
Schulter...                       Oktaha...
Braggs...                         Taft...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
275.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until noon CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3541 9644 3606 9522 3594 9480 3591 9480
      3545 9535 3515 9594 3515 9598 3529 9598
      3529 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1429Z 287DEG 33KT 3598 9517 3526 9637

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
955 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ010-OKZ068-069-231545-
Washington AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-
955 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...CENTRAL
ADAIR AND EAST CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

At 955 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles northeast of Cincinnati to near Tahlequah.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Stilwell...
Farmington...                     Prairie Grove...
Lincoln...                        Westville...
Greenland...                      Eldon...
Adair State Park...               Christie...
Cincinnati...                     Maryetta...
Baron...                          Prairie Grove Battlefield State...
Walnut Grove...                   Clyde...
Rhea...                           Canehill...
Summers...                        Viney Grove...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 58 and 62.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3607 9408 3575 9466 3590 9490 3608 9455
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 269DEG 40KT 3611 9445 3590 9496

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1014 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-231600-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-
1014 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON...NORTHERN
MADISON...WESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 AM CDT...

At 1014 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles northwest of Pea Ridge to near Bethel Heights
to 3 miles northwest of Fayetteville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Berryville...
Huntsville...                     Eureka Springs...
Lowell...                         Elkins...
Bethel Heights...                 Garfield...
Gateway...                        Beaver...
Hindsville...                     Wesley...
Forum...                          Aurora...
Hobbs State Park...               Clifty...
Withrow Springs State Park...     War Eagle...

This includes Interstate 49 near mile marker 67.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3620 9353 3597 9367 3606 9419 3622 9414
      3650 9409 3650 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1514Z 272DEG 37KT 3648 9414 3622 9415 3609 9421

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1018 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ065-066-068>073-231615-
Pittsburg OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Sequoyah OK-
Cherokee OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
1018 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN
SEQUOYAH...SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR...NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG...SOUTHERN
CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1018 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles south of Eldon to 4 miles northwest of Oktaha
to 2 miles west of Dustin. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Tahlequah...
Eufaula...                        Henryetta...
Fort Gibson...                    Checotah...
Warner...                         Morris...
Weleetka...                       Gore...
Dewar...                          Webbers Falls...
Schulter...                       Oktaha...
Braggs...                         Boynton...
Indianola...                      Grayson...
Council Hill...                   Hanna...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 230 and
286.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3571 9570 3582 9534 3581 9527 3585 9524
      3593 9495 3569 9455 3546 9519 3495 9609
      3505 9609 3506 9607 3509 9606 3512 9603
      3512 9601 3515 9601 3515 9598 3529 9598
      3529 9628 3530 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 291DEG 21KT 3583 9481 3562 9553 3528 9607