Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Tulsa, OK

570 
WGUS74 KTSA 230816
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
316 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARC131-OKC079-231230-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-190623T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
316 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN AND LE FLORE COUNTIES...

At 315 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Two to four inches of rain have fallen. 
Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Poteau...                         Greenwood...
Heavener...                       Mansfield...
Wister...                         Howe...
Hartford...                       Huntington...
Midland...                        Octavia...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Big Cedar...
Whitesboro...                     Excelsior...
Washburn...                       Lake Wister State Park...
Burnville...                      Muse...
Patterson...                      Arkola...

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 are possible in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9414 3510 9414 3506 9425 3506 9423
      3497 9423 3495 9434 3496 9437 3493 9445
      3451 9446 3451 9494 3491 9494 3531 9408
      3522 9408 3520 9406 3521 9403 3514 9403

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Short-term aviation impacts from thunderstorms expected at
FSM/FYV/XNA/ROG/MLC through late tonight, with IFR visibilities in
heavy rainfall, lightning, and intermittent MVFR ceilings expected.
More widespread MVFR ceilings expected to redevelop late tonight
areawide. CAM guidance continues to suggest an MCS will develop and
move north to south through the area late tonight through midday
Sunday. Another round of convection is possible late afternoon/early
Sunday evening along/ahead of approaching cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 934 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast issue will be heavy rainfall across the area over
the next 24-36 hours. Very unstable atmosphere and upper
disturbance moving across the area gave way to scattered strong to
severe storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. Areal
coverage has diminished as of mid evening, however storms to the
west and northwest still look to be a player later tonight. Have
adjusted pops through 06z based on latest trends, and made some
adjustments to pops after 06z with mainly lowering pops some
south of Interstate 40. Regardless of where rain occurs, the
threat for heavy rain will exist. Lows tonight look reasonable and
will leave as they are. No adjustments to current flash flood
watch.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
AVIATION.....69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
505 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
505 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma
                            and west central Arkansas .

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in conjunction
with an uncapped atmosphere and upper level disturbance moving
through the region. The greatest storm coverage into the evening
will be southeast of Interstate 44. Severe storms will continue
into the evening with damaging winds and large hail being the main
severe weather threats.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening
to the west along a cold front. These storms will move east into
parts of eastern Oklahoma this evening and overnight,
and will also pose a severe weather threat. An isolated tornado
will be possible this evening as the storms initially move into
northeast Oklahoma, with a transition into a damaging wind and
large hail threat with time later this evening and overnight. Locally
heavy rainfall will be a concern as well, with around 1 to 3
inches of rain likely across parts of eastern Oklahoma, with
locally higher amounts.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of eastern Oklahoma
Oklahoma this evening through 7 am Monday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential
      ...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY through Friday...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Another round of severe weather and locally heavy rainfall is
expected for Sunday and Sunday night. All modes of severe weather
will be possible for Sunday.

Widespread 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts are expected Sunday and
Sunday night with localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible.
This will likely result in flash flooding and river flooding. Several
rivers are expected to go to minor or moderate flood during this
heavy rainfall event. The main thunderstorm activity will begin
to push southeast of the region by Monday morning.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and other first responders should prepare
for the potential for significant flash flooding Sunday, including
the threat for river flooding. A few rivers could go to major
flood depending on the exact placement of the heavier rainfall
axis.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1128 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

OKZ065-066-230500-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
1128 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND EAST
CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1127 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Henryetta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Henryetta...
Dewar...                          Schulter...
Grayson...                        Hoffman...
Pharoah...                        Bryant...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 229 and
242.

LAT...LON 3563 9596 3555 9582 3548 9582 3546 9585
      3546 9587 3544 9588 3534 9604 3544 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 222DEG 21KT 3544 9604

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

OKZ066-071-230530-
Okmulgee OK-McIntosh OK-
1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1154 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast
of Schulter, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Morris...
Schulter...                       Grayson...
Hoffman...                        Eram...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 243 and
244.

LAT...LON 3574 9587 3566 9571 3557 9571 3542 9588
      3554 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 220DEG 18KT 3554 9591

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ066-067-070-230600-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-
1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND
NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1226 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Morris, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Okmulgee...
Haskell...                        Morris...
Taft...                           Boynton...
Bald Hill...                      Jamesville...
Eram...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9592 3586 9582 3585 9580 3577 9541
      3555 9569 3555 9581 3562 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 215DEG 22KT 3562 9578

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ002-230630-
Carroll AR-
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM
CDT...

At 1254 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rule, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Green Forest...
Carrollton...                     Rudd...
Osage...                          Urbanette...
Rule...                           Grandview...
Blue Eye...                       Dryfork...
Cabanal...                        Metalton...
Connor...                         Coin...
Delmar...                         Denver...

LAT...LON 3612 9347 3613 9355 3615 9355 3616 9356
      3650 9364 3650 9330 3613 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0554Z 233DEG 28KT 3628 9346

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ067-068-070-071-230700-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-McIntosh OK-
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH...
SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...WEST CENTRAL CHEROKEE AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 1258 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Oktaha, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Wagoner...
Fort Gibson...                    Okay...
Hulbert...                        Porter...
Oktaha...                         Braggs...
Taft...                           Boynton...
Rentiesville...                   Tullahassee...
Greenleaf State Park...           Pumpkin Center...
Sequoyah State Park...            Keefeton...
Wainwright...                     Summit...
Redbird...                        Jamesville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 9512 3555 9513 3549 9564 3586 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 237DEG 20KT 3565 9549

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ029-OKZ076-230700-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
101 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 101 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of Big
Cedar, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Mansfield...
Hackett...                        Hartford...
Huntington...                     Midland...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Patterson...
Arkola...                         Crossroads...
Witcherville...                   Dayton...
Hodgen...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 9416 3508 9422 3506 9425 3506 9423
      3497 9424 3495 9429 3496 9433 3495 9434
      3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441 3493 9443
      3493 9445 3473 9445 3463 9456 3474 9474
      3523 9437 3510 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 216DEG 24KT 3475 9460

69