River Flood Warning 81, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage early this
morning across northeast Oklahoma, and eventually spread
southeast across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas later this morning and into the afternoon. Expect
mostly MVFR conditions with areas of IFR in the heavier storms.
Gusty winds and hail will be possible through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms remained ongoing early this morning
across much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas in response
to a vort max continuing to slowly lift northeast into Southern
Missouri. Gusty winds and periods of very heavy rainfall have been
observed within these storms as they lift northeast with the vort
max. Additional thunderstorms had also developed along and ahead
of a cold front positioned from a surface low in the Texas
Panhandle northeast through Central/Northern Kansas. These storms
are expected to continue to approach eastern Oklahoma and move
into Northeast Oklahoma around 12z this morning....while much of
the activity associated with the vort max looks to lift into
Missouri around 14/15z. Have followed close to latest HRRR runs
for timing.

The line of thunderstorms/developing MCS is expected to move east
southeast across the CWA through this afternoon...reaching
Northwest Arkansas by late morning and into Southeast Oklahoma by
early this afternoon. Large amounts of instability across the
region this morning will allow for the potential for locally
damaging winds to be possible as the line moves into Northeast
Oklahoma. Thus...a severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect
through 15z for most locations along and northwest of Interstate
44.

As the line makes its way through the CWA during the day...severe
weather potentials will remain possible with the greater potential
along and ahead of the leading line of storms. By this afternoon
moderately steep lapse rates combined with continued instability
will allow for large hail and damaging winds to be the main
threats. However...low level wind shear values around 20kts could
also allow for an isolated tornado potential...especially with
any storm that can become discrete.

This evening and overnight tonight...the frontal boundary out
west is forecast to making its way eastward into the CWA as an
upper level low pressure system currently over the Inter-Mountain
West moves across the Plains. Additional thunderstorm development
is forecast this afternoon along the frontal boundary and push
into the CWA. All modes of severe weather again could be possible
into the evening hours with a transition to a damaging wind threat
overnight. Based off of latest short term models/CAM
solutions...the majority of the precip looks to be exiting the CWA
by early morning Monday. Strength/coverage of this additional
development late this afternoon/tonight will be somewhat dependent
on how much the atmosphere can recover from the MCS during the
day. Enough instability looks to remain over the region with the
greater storm potentials tonight being across Southeast Oklahoma
into Western Arkansas.

Very heavy rainfall will also be a main concern with the MCS
today and any additional development tonight. Precipitable water
values near 2 inches combined with efficient rain producing storms
will help to create widespread rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3
inch range again today with locally higher amounts of 4+ inches
possible for some locations through tonight. This additional
rainfall will continue to increase the flash flooding potentials
over the CWA along with potential rises to mainstem river systems.
Have continued the flash flood watch through tonight.

The backside of the upper low and cold front finally exit the
region during the day Monday. Have left slight chances for
showers and thunderstorms mainly over far Southeast Oklahoma into
Monday evening before the boundary can completely exit. Behind the
departing wave and frontal boundary...a ridge of high pressure is
progged to build over the Plains with more seasonal type
conditions forecast through the end of the work week. In
response...daily diurnal shower/thunderstorm chances and
temperatures closer to the seasonal average will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  65  85  67 /  80  70  10  10
FSM   86  68  86  68 /  80  80  20  10
MLC   86  66  85  67 /  80  80  10  20
BVO   83  63  85  63 /  90  60  10  10
FYV   81  64  82  63 /  80  70  10  10
BYV   81  64  83  63 /  80  70  10  10
MKO   82  65  84  67 /  80  80  10  10
MIO   82  63  83  63 /  90  70  10  10
F10   82  64  84  67 /  80  80  10  10
HHW   88  68  84  69 /  60  90  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
451 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This morning.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across far eastern Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas will continue to produce areas of locally
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail through daybreak.

Additional areas of thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma will
move east into northeast Oklahoma early this morning. An isolated
brief tornado along the leading edge of the storms can't be
ruled out, although the main threat early this morning will be
from damaging winds. Thunderstorms will gradually strengthen later
this morning and into the afternoon as they track across southeast
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Damaging winds and large hail be
the main concern, along with isolated tornadoes this afternoon
mainly across parts of southeast Oklahoma.

Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected through the day, with
much of the region expected to receive an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rain. This will lead to areas of flooding and possible flash
flooding.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be exiting southeast Oklahoma late tonight
into early Monday morning. Low chances for mainly diurnal
showers and thunderstorms will persist through all of next
week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
836 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ058-063-231400-
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
836 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

At 836 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northwest of Anderson to 4 miles east of Jay.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Dodge...
Cayuga...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3678 9462 3650 9462 3643 9461 3641 9477
      3675 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1336Z 262DEG 38KT 3672 9456 3644 9472

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E OWASSO              36.27N 95.82W
06/23/2019                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PHOTOS OF LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWNED NEAR 78TH STREET NORTH
            AND 129TH EAST AVENUE IN OWASSO. RELAYED VIA EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS.

0730 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
06/23/2019                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DAMAGE REPORTED BY A MEDIA STORM TRACKER AT WOODWARD
            PARK IN TULSA.

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OILTON                  36.08N 96.58W
06/23/2019                   CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DAMAGE RELAYED BY MEDIA STORM TRACKER. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0803 AM     FLOOD            ADAIR                   36.44N 95.27W
06/23/2019                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER CROSSING HIGHWAY 28 WEST OF ADAIR. EMERGENCY
            MANAGER RELAYED THAT WATER DOES NOT USUALLY CROSS THE
            ROAD AT THIS LOCATION.

0821 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOWATA                  36.70N 95.64W
06/23/2019                   NOWATA             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER CROSSING ROADS NEAR NOWATA.
            RELAYED BY MEDIA STORM TRACKER.

0730 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
06/23/2019                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN NEAR 24TH AND MARION IN TULSA. A PORTION OF
            ONE TREE FELL ON A CAR. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
854 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ060-064-066-067-070-231445-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
854 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CREEK...CENTRAL
WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE...NORTHERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

At 854 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Oneta to 4 miles south of Mounds. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Wagoner...
Bixby...                          Glenpool...
Coweta...                         Haskell...
Beggs...                          Mounds...
Porter...                         Preston...
Bald Hill...                      Stonebluff...
Oneta...                          Liberty...
Redbird...                        Jamesville...
Hectorville...                    Leonard...
Choska...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
also remains in effect until noon CDT for northeastern and east
central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3604 9573 3601 9523 3599 9523 3598 9527
      3596 9528 3563 9584 3583 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1354Z 272DEG 30KT 3602 9569 3582 9606

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAREMORE               36.31N 95.62W
06/23/2019                   ROGERS             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS IN THE CITY OF CLAREMORE ARE FLOODED. ROAD
            CLOSURES INCLUDE LYNN RIGGS BLVD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
            COURTHOUSE, ARCHER BETWEEN HIGHWAY 20 AND DUPONT, AND
            LOWRY ROAD AT THE LOW WATER BRIDGE. RELAYED VIA CITY
            POLICE DEPARTMENT TWITTER.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
923 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MANNFORD                36.13N 96.35W
06/23/2019                   CREEK              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO THE METAL STANDS AT THE FOOTBALL
            FIELD IN MANNFORD. PICS RELAYED VIA SPOTTER TWITTER
            ACCOUNT.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ065>068-070-071-231515-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Cherokee OK-Okfuskee OK-Wagoner OK-
McIntosh OK-
930 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCINTOSH...SOUTHEASTERN
WAGONER...CENTRAL CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...SOUTHERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 929 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Hulbert to 6 miles south of
Bearden. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Tahlequah...
Okmulgee...                       Wagoner...
Okemah...                         Henryetta...
Fort Gibson...                    Checotah...
Haskell...                        Warner...
Morris...                         Weleetka...
Dewar...                          Okay...
Hulbert...                        Porter...
Schulter...                       Oktaha...
Braggs...                         Taft...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
275.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until noon CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3541 9644 3606 9522 3594 9480 3591 9480
      3545 9535 3515 9594 3515 9598 3529 9598
      3529 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1429Z 287DEG 33KT 3598 9517 3526 9637