Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
408 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing much of the day today,
but the focus will be shifting to the east this evening and
overnight. Most places will remain dry Tuesday, but isolated to
widely scattered convection may develop, especially during the
afternoon.

Rain chances will increase by late Wednesday, and especially
Thursday, as an upper low moves slowly east from New Mexico into
Oklahoma. Rain chances will be tapering off from west to east
Friday afternoon as this system continues east into southwest
Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely from late
Wednesday into Friday, with over two inches of rain possible in
locations that see the heaviest downpours.

Will keep low shower and thunderstorm chances going this weekend
until the passage of a cold front Sunday. A bit cooler and drier
weather then looks to prevail for a day or two early next week
following the cold frontal passage.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  90  72  88 /  20  20  20  50
FSM   69  90  72  90 /  40  20  20  50
MLC   69  89  72  87 /  30  20  20  50
BVO   68  89  71  89 /  20  20  20  50
FYV   66  86  69  87 /  40  20  20  40
BYV   66  85  71  88 /  70  20  20  40
MKO   68  89  71  88 /  30  20  20  50
MIO   68  86  71  88 /  50  20  20  40
F10   69  89  71  87 /  20  20  20  50
HHW   70  89  72  87 /  40  20  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1244 PM AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed across parts of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as of early afternoon. Additional scattered
thunderstorm development expected through the afternoon as a moist
and unstable air-mass will be in place. A few pulse severe storms
will be possible with large hail and damaging winds. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue for much of the week as a
series of upper level disturbances traverse the region in southwest
flow aloft. A stronger upper low will begin to move out of the
desert southwest and into the southern plains Thursday into
Friday. The threat for heavy rainfall will increase during this
time, leading to a more elevated threat of flash flooding as well
as severe weather.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, especially in areas that
are still dealing with overland flooding. Lake levels remain well
above normal and any additional heavy rain may lead to increased
river levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
323 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ061-062-067-032115-
Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
323 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHWESTERN MAYES AND NORTHERN WAGONER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles east of Claremore to 2 miles northwest of
Inola to 2 miles northeast of Oneta. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Claremore...
Wagoner...                        Pryor...
Coweta...                         Pryor Creek...
Chouteau...                       Inola...
Sportsmen Acres Community...      Taiwah...
Tiawah...                         Oneta...
Mazie...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 242 and 252.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9522 3593 9543 3596 9576 3601 9576
      3615 9568 3629 9569 3638 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 263DEG 16KT 3632 9558 3618 9554 3604 9567

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ058-063-032100-
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Wyandotte. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Wyandotte...
Dodge...                          Cayuga...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9462 3656 9470 3669 9482 3690 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 194DEG 3KT 3670 9467

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
348 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ062-067-068-032130-
Cherokee OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
348 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MAYES...NORTHEASTERN
WAGONER AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 348 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northwest of Chouteau to 7 miles east of Inola
to 6 miles east of Coweta. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wagoner...                        Chouteau...
Locust Grove...                   Hulbert...
Peggs...                          Rose...
Sportsmen Acres Community...      Lost City...
Mazie...                          Murphy...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3627 9501 3608 9501 3591 9515 3595 9558
      3608 9548 3608 9544 3625 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 271DEG 27KT 3621 9540 3611 9539 3597 9553

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
402 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ049-053-032130-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
402 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND NORTH
CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 402 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles west of
Antlers, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Kent...
Moyers...                         Kellond...
Apple...                          Speer...
Dela...                           Finley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 9576 3430 9578 3437 9545 3411 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 263DEG 13KT 3422 9569

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
418 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ060-067-070-032145-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Wagoner OK-
418 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAGONER...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

At 418 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest of
Stonebluff, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Bixby...
Coweta...                         Haskell...
Stonebluff...                     Redbird...
Leonard...                        Choska...

LAT...LON 3597 9587 3599 9553 3577 9555 3584 9577
      3586 9577 3586 9580 3588 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 276DEG 20KT 3592 9579

Lacy

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