Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Highest storm chances will be across SE OK and NW AR for the first
6-8 hours of the TAF period, with more scattered coverage across
NE OK. MVFR cigs, MVFR/IFR vsbys expected in periods of thunder
through 02z, with VFR elements to prevail for the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1018 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered convection across SE OK this morning will continue into
at least into the early afternoon. Additional chances for
storms this afternoon will include all of the forecast area in a
warm humid environment. Greatest coverage expected across SE OK
and WC AR during peak heating and into the early evening. Main
forecast update is to raise pops to high chance across SE OK and
increase for other locations mainly along and south of I-40.
Temperatures look good for the afternoon. Slightly higher
dewpoints and increased cloud cover across NE OK will likely
preclude afternoon temperatures from reaching observed values of
yesterday, so those will be left as they are. Remaining elements
look reasonable as well.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1244 PM AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed across parts of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as of early afternoon. Additional scattered
thunderstorm development expected through the afternoon as a moist
and unstable air-mass will be in place. A few pulse severe storms
will be possible with large hail and damaging winds. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue for much of the week as a
series of upper level disturbances traverse the region in southwest
flow aloft. A stronger upper low will begin to move out of the
desert southwest and into the southern plains Thursday into
Friday. The threat for heavy rainfall will increase during this
time, leading to a more elevated threat of flash flooding as well
as severe weather.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, especially in areas that
are still dealing with overland flooding. Lake levels remain well
above normal and any additional heavy rain may lead to increased
river levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

OKZ075-076-031830-
Latimer OK-Le Flore OK-
1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LATIMER AND WEST
CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1256 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northwest
of Talihina, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Talihina...                       Bengal...
Talimena State Park...

LAT...LON 3470 9508 3476 9519 3498 9501 3485 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 221DEG 23KT 3478 9509

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