Tornado Warning 43, NWS Topeka, KS

870 
WWUS53 KTOP 160243
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
943 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSC127-160253-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-190816T0300Z/
Morris-
943 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved east 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for east central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3881 9639 3887 9622 3885 9620 3881 9624
      3869 9613 3864 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 320DEG 22KT 3880 9629 

$$

KSC111-197-160300-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-190816T0300Z/
Wabaunsee-Lyon-
943 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES...
    
At 943 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles north of Bushong, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
south central Wabaunsee and northwestern Lyon Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9639 3887 9622 3885 9620 3881 9624
      3869 9613 3864 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 320DEG 22KT 3880 9629 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Gargan

135 
WWUS53 KTOP 160251
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
951 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSC111-197-160300-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-190816T0300Z/
Wabaunsee-Lyon-
951 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES...
    
At 950 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles north of Bushong, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
south central Wabaunsee and northwestern Lyon Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9637 3882 9625 3881 9624 3869 9613
      3864 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 317DEG 15KT 3878 9629 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Gargan

917 
WWUS53 KTOP 160258
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
958 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSC111-197-160308-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-190816T0300Z/
Wabaunsee-Lyon-
958 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN
LYON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for east central
Kansas.


LAT...LON 3877 9637 3882 9625 3881 9624 3869 9613
      3864 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 309DEG 18KT 3876 9626 

$$

Gargan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Convective trends and intensities are the main challenges. Mesoscale-
convective system continues to impact northern portions of the area
in seasonally-strong west-northwest flow aloft with continued 850 mb
southwest winds around 20 knots keeping some higher theta-e air
ingest in place. Outflow boundary from this convection was bisecting
the CWA from west to east with well-mixed and moisture-rich boundary
layer air pushing north-northwest into it. Latest analysis indicates
at least modest ML CIN persists but strong convergence was leading
to some 19Z cumulus development in central Kansas with ML CAPE near
3500 J/kg.

Short-range guidance continues to struggle with ongoing
precipitation most solutions point to some redevelopment in the next
several hours. Hard to get too precise with location and timing but
expect at least isolated convection to develop by 00Z near the
boundary and push east to southeast into the evening. The developing
nocturnal low-level jet will increase already strong shear for a
environment very supportive of supercells into the evening, with
their persistence at least partially moderated by the orientation of
the boundary, with continues to alter with time. All modes of severe
weather will be possible into at least 03Z with a slowly-
destabilizing boundary layer likely leading to decreasing potential
overnight. The decreasing trend will also be aided by a shortwave
trough pushing east into the upper Mississippi Valley, bringing a
reinforcing boundary into northern Kansas.

The eventual location of this boundary will be a key player in
thunderstorm activity for Friday afternoon and evening. Most
guidance brings it through at least I-70 but it may reside over the
southern counties in the late afternoon and early evening. There is
some potential for an increasing capping inversion to build in over
the boundary layer and may keep daytime development in check, and
this could be under a deck of lower stratus, further curtailing
convection and resulting in lower confidence in high temperatures.
The greater threat will likely come as the low-level jet returns
in the evening and overnight for elevated WAA-induced development.
With potential training of storms over this boundary over precip
falling today/tonight, there is some concern for excessive
rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Evolution of the weather on Saturday will depend on linger
convection and outflow/front from Friday night, and speed of the
shortwave trof progged to move through the state.  Generally zonal
flow across the state does little to shift warm front north or
south, leaving a focus for convection across the northern part of
the state. GFS solutions would pose a higher threat for strong
storms given available instability as wave moves over eastern Kansas
in the afternoon/evening hours, advecting moist unstable air into
the warm sector then developing convection. Will keep chance PoPs
for lingering morning convection, followed by the uncertainty of the
location of redevelopment in the afternoon/evening.  Highs rise to
the low 90s, possibly a few degrees cooler north of the warm front
near the NE border.

Broader large scale upper trof moves across southern Canada and the
northern plains late Saturday night, giving the upper ridge a chance
to nose northward into the Central Plains Sunday into Monday. Highs
rise back into the 90s with upper 90s in central parts of the state,
and heat indices possibly back into the 100-110 range Sunday
through Tuesday afternoons.

May start to get some influence from cooler air pushing southward
behind the upper low over the Great Lakes for Wednesday, and another
chance for rain as it does so, bringing forecast highs back down to
the upper 80s to near 90 for mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Risk for severe TS will persist for the next several hours at the
terminals. Tempo IFR conditions are possible if a TS moves across
an airfield. Then there is the potential for MVFR stratus to hang
in behind the outflow boundary overnight. At this point, most of
the guidance keeps the lower CIGS just north of the terminals.
Since a mention of it is already in the forecast, will keep a
mention of it. Confidence in TS developing is good, but timing the
storms at the terminals is less confident.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorm chances increase across the entire area as the late
afternoon and evening progress, but thunderstorm chances
gradually end overnight. Some of the storms this afternoon and
this evening may be severe with large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

Flooding on the Big Blue River near Blue Rapids continues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
are possible Friday night through Sunday morning. Severe weather
can't be ruled out with these storms with the most likely hazards
being large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flash flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through the late evening hours.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     TORNADO          6 SSE VOLLAND           38.87N 96.34W
08/15/2019                   WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
854 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TORNADO          7 SE VOLLAND            38.87N 96.32W
08/15/2019                   WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTS TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
900 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ012-160230-
Brown-
900 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of White Cloud, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Robinson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3971 9534 3992 9556 4000 9546 4000 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 314DEG 26KT 3994 9542

Laflin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
909 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HAIL             ESKRIDGE                38.86N 96.10W
08/15/2019  E1.25 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     TORNADO          2 ENE VOLLAND           38.96N 96.37W
08/15/2019                   WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. SOCIAL MEDIA. LASTED ABOUT
            15 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
933 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TORNADO          6 E ALTA VISTA          38.86N 96.38W
08/15/2019                   WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO VISIBLE WITH
            LIGHTNING FLASHES AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&