Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Topeka, KS

386 
WGUS73 KTOP 160351
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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1051 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSC013-160600-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190816T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brown-
1051 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY...

At 1050 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hiawatha, Sabetha, Robinson, Morrill, Reserve and Hamlin. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 9534 3993 9578 4000 9579 4000 9534

$$

600 
WGUS73 KTOP 160556
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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

KSC013-160604-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190816T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brown-
1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
100 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters are receding. Only minor 
flooding is expected over the next few hours impacting some county 
roads.  An areal flood warning has been issued which replaces this 
flash flood warning. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3969 9534 3993 9578 4000 9579 4000 9534

$$

BD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Convective trends and intensities are the main challenges. Mesoscale-
convective system continues to impact northern portions of the area
in seasonally-strong west-northwest flow aloft with continued 850 mb
southwest winds around 20 knots keeping some higher theta-e air
ingest in place. Outflow boundary from this convection was bisecting
the CWA from west to east with well-mixed and moisture-rich boundary
layer air pushing north-northwest into it. Latest analysis indicates
at least modest ML CIN persists but strong convergence was leading
to some 19Z cumulus development in central Kansas with ML CAPE near
3500 J/kg.

Short-range guidance continues to struggle with ongoing
precipitation most solutions point to some redevelopment in the next
several hours. Hard to get too precise with location and timing but
expect at least isolated convection to develop by 00Z near the
boundary and push east to southeast into the evening. The developing
nocturnal low-level jet will increase already strong shear for a
environment very supportive of supercells into the evening, with
their persistence at least partially moderated by the orientation of
the boundary, with continues to alter with time. All modes of severe
weather will be possible into at least 03Z with a slowly-
destabilizing boundary layer likely leading to decreasing potential
overnight. The decreasing trend will also be aided by a shortwave
trough pushing east into the upper Mississippi Valley, bringing a
reinforcing boundary into northern Kansas.

The eventual location of this boundary will be a key player in
thunderstorm activity for Friday afternoon and evening. Most
guidance brings it through at least I-70 but it may reside over the
southern counties in the late afternoon and early evening. There is
some potential for an increasing capping inversion to build in over
the boundary layer and may keep daytime development in check, and
this could be under a deck of lower stratus, further curtailing
convection and resulting in lower confidence in high temperatures.
The greater threat will likely come as the low-level jet returns
in the evening and overnight for elevated WAA-induced development.
With potential training of storms over this boundary over precip
falling today/tonight, there is some concern for excessive
rainfall amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Evolution of the weather on Saturday will depend on linger
convection and outflow/front from Friday night, and speed of the
shortwave trof progged to move through the state.  Generally zonal
flow across the state does little to shift warm front north or
south, leaving a focus for convection across the northern part of
the state. GFS solutions would pose a higher threat for strong
storms given available instability as wave moves over eastern Kansas
in the afternoon/evening hours, advecting moist unstable air into
the warm sector then developing convection. Will keep chance PoPs
for lingering morning convection, followed by the uncertainty of the
location of redevelopment in the afternoon/evening.  Highs rise to
the low 90s, possibly a few degrees cooler north of the warm front
near the NE border.

Broader large scale upper trof moves across southern Canada and the
northern plains late Saturday night, giving the upper ridge a chance
to nose northward into the Central Plains Sunday into Monday. Highs
rise back into the 90s with upper 90s in central parts of the state,
and heat indices possibly back into the 100-110 range Sunday
through Tuesday afternoons.

May start to get some influence from cooler air pushing southward
behind the upper low over the Great Lakes for Wednesday, and another
chance for rain as it does so, bringing forecast highs back down to
the upper 80s to near 90 for mid/late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Risk for severe TS will persist for the next several hours at the
terminals. Tempo IFR conditions are possible if a TS moves across
an airfield. Then there is the potential for MVFR stratus to hang
in behind the outflow boundary overnight. At this point, most of
the guidance keeps the lower CIGS just north of the terminals.
Since a mention of it is already in the forecast, will keep a
mention of it. Confidence in TS developing is good, but timing the
storms at the terminals is less confident.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
311 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorm chances increase across the entire area as the late
afternoon and evening progress, but thunderstorm chances
gradually end overnight. Some of the storms this afternoon and
this evening may be severe with large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

Flooding on the Big Blue River near Blue Rapids continues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
are possible Friday night through Sunday morning. Severe weather
can't be ruled out with these storms with the most likely hazards
being large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flash flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through the late evening hours.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
813 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ022-023-160145-
Pottawatomie-Riley-
813 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY AND SOUTHERN
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 813 PM CDT, emergency management reported a strong thunderstorm
near Manhattan, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wamego, St. George, Belvue and Louisville.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3941 9630 3920 9616 3920 9618 3921 9618
      3921 9619 3920 9621 3921 9624 3918 9626
      3918 9628 3920 9631 3919 9632 3917 9633
      3917 9637 3916 9638 3917 9639 3916 9639
      3912 9661 3928 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 256DEG 23KT 3921 9655

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
818 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TORNADO          7 WNW VOLLAND           38.97N 96.52W
08/15/2019                   GEARY              KS   STORM CHASER

            A COUPLE REPORTS OF A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
833 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             4 ENE MANHATTAN         39.22N 96.51W
08/15/2019  E0.88 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     TORNADO          6 SSE VOLLAND           38.87N 96.34W
08/15/2019                   WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
854 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TORNADO          7 SE VOLLAND            38.87N 96.32W
08/15/2019                   WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTS TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
900 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ012-160230-
Brown-
900 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of White Cloud, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Robinson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3971 9534 3992 9556 4000 9546 4000 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 314DEG 26KT 3994 9542

Laflin