Tornado Warning 31, NWS Topeka, KS

608 
WWUS53 KTOP 290124
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
824 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSC041-127-290145-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190529T0145Z/
Dickinson-Morris-
824 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...
    
At 823 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles northwest of Herington, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Woodbine around 830 PM CDT.
  Latimer around 835 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 9706 3887 9691 3870 9675 3867 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 243DEG 29KT 3872 9699 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

470 
WWUS53 KTOP 290144 RRA
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
844 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSC041-127-290152-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190529T0145Z/
Dickinson-Morris-
844 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND NORTHWESTERN
MORRIS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
east central Kansas.

A severe thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for east central 
Dickinson and northwestern Morris counties until 900 PM CDT. 

LAT...LON 3871 9706 3887 9691 3870 9675 3867 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 243DEG 29KT 3879 9681 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A complicated setup this afternoon with clouds and elevated storms
this morning. An old outflow boundary has set up across the area
from near Minneapolis to south of Junction City to near Mayetta.
South of this boundary exits a very moist and unstable airmass.
The 18Z RAOB from TOP shows very good deep layer of 60KT from
0-6KM. Effective SRH was around 140 m2/s2. So storms south of the
boundary will very likely become supercellular. Clearing out
across central and south central KS where surface temps have
warmed into the lower 80s is expected to be the region where new
storms develop in the coming hours. There is a risk for tornadoes
with storms that are rooted in the boundary layer and remain
discrete. Some of the convective allowing models (CAMs) show
discrete storms scattered over the forecast area by 21Z. So a
tornado watch has been issued for this area.

Much of the model guidance suggests this activity will move east
of the forecast area after 7 PM. Although an upper low is progged
to remain over the central plains so some isolated showers and
storms could linger into the late evening. Lows tonight should be
cooler ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s with some weak
cold air advection pushing into north central KS.

The upper low is progged to remain over the central plains on
Wednesday with the Pacific front just to the south east of the
forecast area. As a shortwave lifts over the front, additional
showers and storms could move into parts of east central KS. So
have kept some POPs through the evening. Highs Wednesday are not
expected to get out of the 70s with northwest winds bringing some
cooler air into the state. Lows Wednesday night are expected to
fall into the 50s area wide with some clearing and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A weak surface ridge is progged to remain over the central plains
for Thursday and Friday. There are some difference in the models
in how they handle the upper energy shearing out. The NAM remains
more defined with the upper low and wants to generate some precip
in the heat of the day Thursday, But the GFS and ECMWF are much
more sheared out with the upper energy. So there might be some
precip, but with much less instability to work with storms do not
look to concerning.

For Saturday through Monday, mid level ridging is expected to
amplify over the southern and central plains. There is some
potential for weak disturbances to move over the top of this ridge
and force some precip. So have chance POPs scattered throughout
the forecast. The warm and humid temperatures are progged to move
back into the area by this time. So high are expected to be in the
80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

An old outflow boundary is expected to gradually lift north
allowing CIGS to improve early this afternoon. TS are likely to
move through and have a TEMPO for the best window of opportunity.
Will amend the forecast as timing the storms become more
apparent. Storms are expected to move east of the terminals by the
early evening. There may be some stratus move in late tonight.
Confidence is marginal but included a tempo for MVFR CIGS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across central Kansas
around 4 PM and move across east central and parts or northeast
Kansas through 7 PM. In addition to large hail and torrential
rainfall, the storms will be capable of producing a few tornadoes.
Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is the potential for a few isolated storms to develop
across far east central Kansas Wednesday afternoon into early
evening. If any storms are able to develop, they may be strong to
severe.

Flooding on area rivers is likely to persist through the latter
part of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be activated this afternoon.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          LAWRENCE                38.96N 95.26W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE AND MULTIPLE VEHICLES
            OVERTURNED VIA LAWRENCE POLICE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          2 NNE PLEASANT GROVE    38.89N 95.25W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS OF SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED
            NEAR HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN PLEASANT GROVE AND
            SOUTH LAWRENCE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             1 W BELLEVILLE          39.82N 97.65W
05/28/2019  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          3 S EUDORA              38.90N 95.10W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   PUBLIC

            MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOMES ALONG 1100 ROAD.
            IMAGES FROM TWITTER.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
717 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 ESE SCANDIA           39.77N 97.71W
05/28/2019                   REPUBLIC           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME. NO
            REPORTS OF DAMAGE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
743 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          3 N PLEASANT GROVE      38.90N 95.26W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VISUAL CONFIRMATION OF LARGE TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND.

0607 PM     TORNADO          LONE STAR               38.87N 95.36W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED ON THE GROUND.

0511 PM     TORNADO          6 S OSAGE CITY          38.55N 95.84W
05/28/2019                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROTATION AND DEBRIS BEING LOFTED FROM
            POSSIBLE TORNADO. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME.

&&