Tornado Warning 33, NWS Topeka, KS

397 
WWUS53 KTOP 290248
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
948 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSC131-290315-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190529T0315Z/
Nemaha-
948 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA COUNTY...
    
At 947 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 
was located 2 miles northeast of Goff, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Goff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9593 3972 9593 3978 9579 3965 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 237DEG 26KT 3970 9590 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Gargan

700 
WWUS53 KTOP 290251
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
951 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSC131-290301-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190529T0315Z/
Nemaha-
951 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
east central Nemaha county until 1015 PM.

LAT...LON 3964 9593 3972 9593 3978 9579 3965 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 237DEG 25KT 3972 9587 

$$

Gargan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A complicated setup this afternoon with clouds and elevated storms
this morning. An old outflow boundary has set up across the area
from near Minneapolis to south of Junction City to near Mayetta.
South of this boundary exits a very moist and unstable airmass.
The 18Z RAOB from TOP shows very good deep layer of 60KT from
0-6KM. Effective SRH was around 140 m2/s2. So storms south of the
boundary will very likely become supercellular. Clearing out
across central and south central KS where surface temps have
warmed into the lower 80s is expected to be the region where new
storms develop in the coming hours. There is a risk for tornadoes
with storms that are rooted in the boundary layer and remain
discrete. Some of the convective allowing models (CAMs) show
discrete storms scattered over the forecast area by 21Z. So a
tornado watch has been issued for this area.

Much of the model guidance suggests this activity will move east
of the forecast area after 7 PM. Although an upper low is progged
to remain over the central plains so some isolated showers and
storms could linger into the late evening. Lows tonight should be
cooler ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s with some weak
cold air advection pushing into north central KS.

The upper low is progged to remain over the central plains on
Wednesday with the Pacific front just to the south east of the
forecast area. As a shortwave lifts over the front, additional
showers and storms could move into parts of east central KS. So
have kept some POPs through the evening. Highs Wednesday are not
expected to get out of the 70s with northwest winds bringing some
cooler air into the state. Lows Wednesday night are expected to
fall into the 50s area wide with some clearing and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A weak surface ridge is progged to remain over the central plains
for Thursday and Friday. There are some difference in the models
in how they handle the upper energy shearing out. The NAM remains
more defined with the upper low and wants to generate some precip
in the heat of the day Thursday, But the GFS and ECMWF are much
more sheared out with the upper energy. So there might be some
precip, but with much less instability to work with storms do not
look to concerning.

For Saturday through Monday, mid level ridging is expected to
amplify over the southern and central plains. There is some
potential for weak disturbances to move over the top of this ridge
and force some precip. So have chance POPs scattered throughout
the forecast. The warm and humid temperatures are progged to move
back into the area by this time. So high are expected to be in the
80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

An old outflow boundary is expected to gradually lift north
allowing CIGS to improve early this afternoon. TS are likely to
move through and have a TEMPO for the best window of opportunity.
Will amend the forecast as timing the storms become more
apparent. Storms are expected to move east of the terminals by the
early evening. There may be some stratus move in late tonight.
Confidence is marginal but included a tempo for MVFR CIGS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
244 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across central Kansas
around 4 PM and move across east central and parts or northeast
Kansas through 7 PM. In addition to large hail and torrential
rainfall, the storms will be capable of producing a few tornadoes.
Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is the potential for a few isolated storms to develop
across far east central Kansas Wednesday afternoon into early
evening. If any storms are able to develop, they may be strong to
severe.

Flooding on area rivers is likely to persist through the latter
part of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be activated this afternoon.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
827 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

KSZ011-290145-
Nemaha-
827 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA COUNTY...

At 826 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm 4 miles northeast of Centralia, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Centralia, Bern and Oneida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3997 9579 3964 9615 3976 9623 4000 9607
      4000 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 221DEG 36KT 3977 9606

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
834 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 N NORWAY              39.73N 97.78W
05/28/2019  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BY WFO GID.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S JUNCTION CITY       38.90N 96.85W
05/28/2019  E65 MPH          GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
858 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OKETO                   39.96N 96.60W
05/28/2019  M1.20 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   PUBLIC

            1.2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
901 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST AXTELL                  39.87N 96.26W
05/28/2019  E60 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
942 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND GST     CORNING                 39.66N 96.03W
05/28/2019  E60 MPH          NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG