Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A complicated setup this afternoon with clouds and elevated storms
this morning. An old outflow boundary has set up across the area
from near Minneapolis to south of Junction City to near Mayetta.
South of this boundary exits a very moist and unstable airmass.
The 18Z RAOB from TOP shows very good deep layer of 60KT from
0-6KM. Effective SRH was around 140 m2/s2. So storms south of the
boundary will very likely become supercellular. Clearing out
across central and south central KS where surface temps have
warmed into the lower 80s is expected to be the region where new
storms develop in the coming hours. There is a risk for tornadoes
with storms that are rooted in the boundary layer and remain
discrete. Some of the convective allowing models (CAMs) show
discrete storms scattered over the forecast area by 21Z. So a
tornado watch has been issued for this area.

Much of the model guidance suggests this activity will move east
of the forecast area after 7 PM. Although an upper low is progged
to remain over the central plains so some isolated showers and
storms could linger into the late evening. Lows tonight should be
cooler ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s with some weak
cold air advection pushing into north central KS.

The upper low is progged to remain over the central plains on
Wednesday with the Pacific front just to the south east of the
forecast area. As a shortwave lifts over the front, additional
showers and storms could move into parts of east central KS. So
have kept some POPs through the evening. Highs Wednesday are not
expected to get out of the 70s with northwest winds bringing some
cooler air into the state. Lows Wednesday night are expected to
fall into the 50s area wide with some clearing and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

A weak surface ridge is progged to remain over the central plains
for Thursday and Friday. There are some difference in the models
in how they handle the upper energy shearing out. The NAM remains
more defined with the upper low and wants to generate some precip
in the heat of the day Thursday, But the GFS and ECMWF are much
more sheared out with the upper energy. So there might be some
precip, but with much less instability to work with storms do not
look to concerning.

For Saturday through Monday, mid level ridging is expected to
amplify over the southern and central plains. There is some
potential for weak disturbances to move over the top of this ridge
and force some precip. So have chance POPs scattered throughout
the forecast. The warm and humid temperatures are progged to move
back into the area by this time. So high are expected to be in the
80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

An old outflow boundary is expected to gradually lift north
allowing CIGS to improve early this afternoon. TS are likely to
move through and have a TEMPO for the best window of opportunity.
Will amend the forecast as timing the storms become more
apparent. Storms are expected to move east of the terminals by the
early evening. There may be some stratus move in late tonight.
Confidence is marginal but included a tempo for MVFR CIGS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          2 NNE PLEASANT GROVE    38.89N 95.25W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS OF SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED
            NEAR HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN PLEASANT GROVE AND
            SOUTH LAWRENCE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             1 W BELLEVILLE          39.82N 97.65W
05/28/2019  E1.50 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          3 S EUDORA              38.90N 95.10W
05/28/2019                   DOUGLAS            KS   PUBLIC

            MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOMES ALONG 1100 ROAD.
            IMAGES FROM TWITTER.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
717 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 ESE SCANDIA           39.77N 97.71W
05/28/2019                   REPUBLIC           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME. NO
            REPORTS OF DAMAGE.

&&

JP

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