Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Great Falls, MT

125 
WWUS55 KTFX 272317
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
517 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MTC041-272330-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-190627T2330Z/
Hill MT-
517 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HILL COUNTY...

At 517 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 25 miles north of
Beaver Creek, or 28 miles northwest of Havre, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Hill County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4885 10980 4886 11002 4900 11009 4900 10974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 186DEG 13KT 4890 10997 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Moldan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
252 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed just east of
the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and moving toward the northeast.
Some of these storms have the potential to produce large hail and
damaging winds. This activity should diminish or move out of the
area by midnight. After today, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the middle of next week. In
addition, a few more severe storms may occur on Friday in our
eastern zones. Temperatures should be near or slightly below-
normal over the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remainder of today and tonight...A line of showers
and thunderstorms has developed east of the Southern Rocky
Mountain front and is moving in a southwest to northeast
direction. These storms are moving into a moist environment with
good jet dynamics, wind shear, and instability. As a result, a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the entire CWA with
the exception of Beaverhead, Gallatin, Glacier, and Madison
Counties. The primary thunderstorm threat will be severe hail up
to the size of quarters or larger and wind gusts up to 60 to 80
mph. Heavy downpours of rain are also expected, which could cause
some localized flooding. This activity is expected to start
diminishing and moving out of the area around 4Z but some isolated
showers and storms will continue to linger thereafter. rcg

Friday through next Wednesday...Latest deterministic and ensemble
model guidance is in rather good agreement during this period. Thus,
southwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
continue to affect our CWA as the longwave trough axis remains to
our west and the longwave high pressure ridge remains essentially
anchored to our east. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible daily, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. In addition, a few severe thunderstorms may
affect eastern portions of the CWA Friday afternoon and early
evening, when moderate instability and strong vertical wind shear
may exist. Temperatures should remain near or slightly below-normal.
- Jaszka

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 (18Z/27 TAF issuance)

Outside of any shower/thunderstorm activity and lingering low clouds
over KGTF and KCTB, mostly VFR conditions are expected for the next
24-hours. Disturbances embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft
along with other dynamics will produce scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms generally between 20Z/Thu and 04Z/Fri, while
isolated lighter showers and thunderstorms are possible before and
after that period. Note that Periods of MVFR/IFR may accompany any
shower or storm. Some thunderstorms are still expected to become
severe this afternoon and early evening, especially in central and
north-central MT. Quarter-size or larger hail and erratic surface
gusts of 50 to 70 knots are the primary severe threats, along with
the potential for heavy downpours. Regional surface winds remain
light outside outflow (i.e. precip-cooled air emanating from any
shower or storm). Lastly, patchy fog may redevelop tonight over the
the North-Central terminals again late tonight along with localized
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  74  50  76 /  70  20  30  10
CTB  44  71  45  73 /  60  20  20  10
HLN  49  77  50  80 /  50  30  30  20
BZN  47  78  47  79 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  37  73  40  73 /   0  10  10   0
DLN  45  73  46  75 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  50  76  52  77 /  90  20  50  20
LWT  47  74  49  72 /  50  50  60  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
431 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MTZ011-013-044-045-272245-
Chouteau MT-Liberty MT-Hill MT-Toole MT-
431 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY...
SOUTHEASTERN TOOLE...SOUTHWESTERN HILL AND NORTHWESTERN CHOUTEAU
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 431 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of The Knees to 22 miles
northwest of Fort Benton. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tiber Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
north central Montana.

LAT...LON 4845 11119 4826 11059 4795 11095 4808 11136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 207DEG 33KT 4810 11123 4804 11102

Moldan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
434 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MTZ050-272300-
Judith Basin-
434 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTY...

At 434 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 15 miles south of
Stanford, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sapphire Village, Windham, Utica, Moccasin and Benchland.

This includes Highway 200 between mile markers 38 and 58.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4682 11033 4696 11049 4724 11006 4703 10982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 232DEG 29KT 4694 11033

SC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
436 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MTZ050-054-272300-
Judith Basin-Meagher-
436 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN AND
EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER COUNTIES...

At 436 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 20 miles northeast
of White Sulphur Springs, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sapphire Village.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4660 11056 4674 11072 4703 11028 4681 11004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 232DEG 29KT 4672 11056

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
443 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW GREAT FALLS       47.50N 111.31W
06/27/2019                   CASCADE            MT   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LANDSLIDE ON RIVER DRIVE.

&&

MLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
452 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELT                    47.39N 110.93W
06/27/2019  E70 MPH          CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 70 MPH.
            POWER OUTAGE. KNOCKED OVER TREES ONTO HOUSES
            ON 4TH AVENUE SOUTH.

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
453 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELT                    47.39N 110.93W
06/27/2019                   CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 70 MPH.
            POWER OUTAGE. KNOCKED OVER TREES ONTO HOUSES
            ON 4TH AVENUE SOUTH.

&&

SAC