Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 27, 2019Cascade County, Judith Basin County, Meagher County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 27, 2019, 3:48 PM MDT for Cascade County, Judith Basin County, Meagher County, Montana. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 27, 2019, 3:48 PM MDT (21:48 UTC)
Expired: Jun 27, 2019, 4:15 PM MDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cascade County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Meagher County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 27, 1:11 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 118 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -297 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1005 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 27, 2:52 PM MDT, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 2:52 PM MDT, 56 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
252 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed just east of
the Southern Rocky Mountain Front and moving toward the northeast.
Some of these storms have the potential to produce large hail and
damaging winds. This activity should diminish or move out of the
area by midnight. After today, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the middle of next week. In
addition, a few more severe storms may occur on Friday in our
eastern zones. Temperatures should be near or slightly below-
normal over the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remainder of today and tonight...A line of showers
and thunderstorms has developed east of the Southern Rocky
Mountain front and is moving in a southwest to northeast
direction. These storms are moving into a moist environment with
good jet dynamics, wind shear, and instability. As a result, a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the entire CWA with
the exception of Beaverhead, Gallatin, Glacier, and Madison
Counties. The primary thunderstorm threat will be severe hail up
to the size of quarters or larger and wind gusts up to 60 to 80
mph. Heavy downpours of rain are also expected, which could cause
some localized flooding. This activity is expected to start
diminishing and moving out of the area around 4Z but some isolated
showers and storms will continue to linger thereafter. rcg

Friday through next Wednesday...Latest deterministic and ensemble
model guidance is in rather good agreement during this period. Thus,
southwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
continue to affect our CWA as the longwave trough axis remains to
our west and the longwave high pressure ridge remains essentially
anchored to our east. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible daily, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours. In addition, a few severe thunderstorms may
affect eastern portions of the CWA Friday afternoon and early
evening, when moderate instability and strong vertical wind shear
may exist. Temperatures should remain near or slightly below-normal.
- Jaszka

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 (18Z/27 TAF issuance)

Outside of any shower/thunderstorm activity and lingering low clouds
over KGTF and KCTB, mostly VFR conditions are expected for the next
24-hours. Disturbances embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft
along with other dynamics will produce scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms generally between 20Z/Thu and 04Z/Fri, while
isolated lighter showers and thunderstorms are possible before and
after that period. Note that Periods of MVFR/IFR may accompany any
shower or storm. Some thunderstorms are still expected to become
severe this afternoon and early evening, especially in central and
north-central MT. Quarter-size or larger hail and erratic surface
gusts of 50 to 70 knots are the primary severe threats, along with
the potential for heavy downpours. Regional surface winds remain
light outside outflow (i.e. precip-cooled air emanating from any
shower or storm). Lastly, patchy fog may redevelop tonight over the
the North-Central terminals again late tonight along with localized
MVFR/IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  74  50  76 /  70  20  30  10
CTB  44  71  45  73 /  60  20  20  10
HLN  49  77  50  80 /  50  30  30  20
BZN  47  78  47  79 /  20  20  30  10
WEY  37  73  40  73 /   0  10  10   0
DLN  45  73  46  75 /  10  10  10  10
HVR  50  76  52  77 /  90  20  50  20
LWT  47  74  49  72 /  50  50  60  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 27, 2:58 PM MDT, 50 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:00 PM MDT, 48 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 27, 3:01 PM MDT, 47 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:32 PM MDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
332 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             1 SE MONTANA CITY       46.52N 111.91W
06/27/2019  M0.70 INCH       JEFFERSON          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO, .34 INCH RAIN AND WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

JAF

Special weather statement, Jun 27, 3:35 PM MDT, 13 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
335 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

MTZ012-049-272200-
Cascade MT-Eastern Teton MT-
335 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TETON AND
NORTHWESTERN CASCADE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 335 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Fort Shaw to 6 miles south of
Cascade. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cascade, Fort  Shaw, Fort Shaw, Power, Ulm, First Peoples Buffalo
Jump State Park and Sun River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
central and north central Montana.

LAT...LON 4777 11164 4719 11139 4714 11170 4761 11190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 212DEG 21KT 4759 11183 4718 11168

NJL

Local storm report, Jun 27, 3:38 PM MDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
338 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             1 SE HELENA             46.59N 112.00W
06/27/2019  E0.25 INCH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/4 HAIL AT 21 AMBER LANE, EAST HELENA MT,
            AT 2:40 PM. ALSO, .22 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN
            2:40 AND 2:55 PM.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 26, 6:04 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	26 min
Jun 26, 6:11 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Lewis and Clark	34 min
Jun 26, 6:15 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	30 min
Jun 26, 6:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	25 min
Jun 26, 6:25 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX		35 min
Jun 26, 6:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Meagher	28 min
Jun 26, 6:47 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Lewis and Clark	28 min
Jun 26, 6:52 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	38 min
Jun 26, 6:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade	34 min
Jun 26, 7:15 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Madison	30 min
Jun 26, 7:16 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau, Judith Basin	18 min
Jun 26, 7:27 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Madison	33 min
Jun 26, 7:39 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	36 min
Jun 26, 7:59 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	31 min
Jun 26, 8:12 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Chouteau	33 min
Jun 26, 8:26 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Chouteau	34 min
Jun 26, 8:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Blaine	29 min
Jun 26, 8:34 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Petroleum	26 min
Jun 26, 8:52 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Chouteau	23 min
Jun 26, 8:56 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Hill	34 min
Jun 26, 9:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Blaine	29 min
Jun 26, 9:54 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Teton	36 min
Jun 27, 6:57 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Glacier	33 min
Jun 27, 1:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Jefferson	24 min
Jun 27, 1:33 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Deer Lodge	27 min
Jun 27, 1:41 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Lewis and Clark	19 min
Jun 27, 1:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Jefferson, Lewis and Clark	30 min
Jun 27, 2:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Lewis and Clark, Teton	14 min
Jun 27, 2:17 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Silver Bow	13 min
Jun 27, 2:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Broadwater, Jefferson, Lewis and Clark	33 min
Jun 27, 2:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Broadwater, Jefferson	29 min
Jun 27, 2:33 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Silver Bow	42 min
Jun 27, 2:43 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Lewis and Clark	17 min
Jun 27, 2:57 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Broadwater, Jefferson	20 min
Jun 27, 3:01 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	14 min
Jun 27, 3:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Meagher	28 min
Jun 27, 3:35 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	25 min
Jun 27, 3:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Judith Basin, Meagher	28 min
Jun 27, 3:51 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	24 min
Jun 27, 4:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade	24 min
Jun 27, 4:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Meagher	10 min
Jun 27, 4:10 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	35 min
Jun 27, 4:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau, Judith Basin	50 min
Jun 27, 4:13 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	TFX	Cascade	2 hr
Jun 27, 4:20 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Hill	40 min
Jun 27, 4:26 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau	34 min
Jun 27, 4:27 PM MDT	Flash Flood Watch	TFX		5 hr
Jun 27, 4:30 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	30 min
Jun 27, 4:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	14 min
Jun 27, 4:34 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	26 min
Jun 27, 4:36 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	24 min
Jun 27, 4:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin	26 min
Jun 27, 4:54 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	36 min
Jun 27, 5:08 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	37 min
Jun 27, 5:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Fergus, Hill, Judith Basin	35 min
Jun 27, 5:12 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Wheatland	33 min
Jun 27, 5:14 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Hill	31 min
Jun 27, 5:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Liberty	29 min
Jun 27, 5:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Hill	35 min
Jun 27, 5:40 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	TFX	Fergus	35 min
Jun 27, 5:42 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	TFX	Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus	21 min
Jun 27, 5:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	32 min
Jun 27, 5:48 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	27 min
Jun 27, 5:56 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Hill	19 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2019 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.