River Flood Warning 65, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

An area of showers with a few rumbles of thunder continues to
transition across portion of southeast Kansas and west central
Missouri this morning. This area of activity is associated with a
quick moving wave of energy coming out of Southern Plains. Given
the lack of both a strong thermodynamic and dynamic environment,
there is no associated risk for severe weather. However, it
should be noted that this area of showers is moving across a
rather soggy southeast Kansas from previous days rain. Thus, any
efficient rainfall could produce additional runoff and minor
flooding issues.

As this shortwave energy continues to translate through the
region through the early morning hours, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible. It appears the best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will exist across the eastern half of
the CWA through the afternoon and early evening. This will be a
focus for potentially heavy rainfall in slow moving storms along a
boundary and efficient rain producers (PWATs around 1.6). This
activity is expected to dissipate to the east by late Monday
evening. Expect temperatures to climb to around 80 for most of
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Expect drier conditions through most of the day Tuesday before
additional waves of shortwave energy begin to sweep across the
Central Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Models continue to
differ on timing of this system arriving Tuesday evening, yet are
in a consensus that another complex of showers and thunderstorms
will transition through the region in the Tuesday night through
Wednesday timeframe from west to east. Based on recent model
guidance, there appears to be a marginal risk for strong to severe
storms on Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. This threat
for a few strong to severe storms will need to be reevaluated with
future model guidance. It is anticipated that this activity will
slowly move through the CWA and may linger into the afternoon
hours Wednesday, especially across the eastern half of the region.
Expect temperatures to be in the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

As heights begin to rise and a ridge develops across the eastern
CONUS into Thursday, expect temperatures to rise into the middle
80s with drier conditions. This trend will continue through
Saturday as highs climb into the upper 80s, possibly pushing 90.

The next chance for rain returns to the region by late Sunday into
Monday as additional waves of shortwave energy look to translate
across the area. However, medium range model guidance are not in
agreement on exact timing, location, and intensity. Looking ahead
through next week, a strong negative PNA teleconnection is
forecast and would suggest a continued wet pattern as repetitive
shortwaves are able to transition through the region with a
supportive Gulf airmass being funneled in. While teleconnections
do not dictate all the factors of forecasting potential future
rainfall, it does provide supportive evidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the region with
flight conditions falling to MVFR to occasionally IFR through
this morning. Rain and storms will continue into this afternoon
though rain will begin to move to the east. Despite the rain
exiting late this afternoon and evening, ceilings will improve to
VFR but visibilities will begin to become restricted to MVFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
512 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
512 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
morning across the area. A few cloud to ground lightning strikes
will be possible in the more intense storms.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding will also be
possible with any slow moving thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A complex of showers and storms will develop to the west of the
area Tuesday evening and move into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the potential for strong to severe storms and
flooding, especially across southeast Kansas and western
Missouri.

Additional showers and storms will then return to the area by next
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
06/17/2019                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEWTON COUNTY CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTED TO NWS THAT
            SEVERAL ROADS WERE BEING CLOSED OFF IN NEOSHO DUE TO
            FLASH FLOODING.

&&

DCRAMER