River Flood Warning 61, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
618 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Storms continue to develop across northeastern Oklahoma,
southeastern Kansas, and the Missouri Ozarks early this morning.
A cold front has moved south into the area. The strongest storms
are currently along the front generally near the Hwy 60 corridor.
The cap is starting to increase across the area, so these storms
are likely becoming more elevated in nature. This will lead to
the main strong to severe risk shifting to more of the way of
hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Locally
heavy rainfall and an additional flood risk will also remain
possible early this morning.

Upper level ridging will build into the area from the west today,
which will start to push the front back to the north. Scattered
storms will remain possible into this afternoon along and north of
the front. A few strong storms with hail to the size of pennies
and winds to 50mph will remain possible with these storms. Locally
heavy rainfall will also occur with any storms.

Temperatures will range from the lower 80s across central MO to
the upper 80s across souther Missouri this afternoon. A strong
cap will start to build north into the area behind the front and
will help keep the area dry south of the front. Additional storms
will develop across central KS today and will likely form into a
complex of storms and spread to the northeast towards portions of
east central Kansas and west central Missouri this evening into
tonight which will be closer to the front. If storms can make it
into the far northwestern portions of the area, a few strong
storms with gusty winds will be the main risk. South of the front
storms will have a harder time spread into the area with much of
the rest of the area expected to remain dry. Residual flooding
from the recent heavy rains will remain possible today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The upper level ridge will be over the area Friday and Saturday
and will help push the storm track to the north and west. Will
have to watch the far northwestern portions of the forecast area
which will be closer to the western edge of ridge. Storms may be
able to make it into the far western parts of the forecast area on
Friday and Saturday. Again if any storms can make it into the area
a few strong to severe storms will be possible across east
central Kansas and west central Missouri as instability increases
across the area. The main risk will be large hail and damaging
winds.

An upper level short wave trough will spread across the area on
Sunday and help flatten the ridge some. Storms will be able to
affect more of the area on Sunday, but may not be able to get all
the way into southern Missouri.

Highs will warm into the 80s all weekend with lows remaining in
the 60s each night through the weekend.

An upper level trough and cold front will move trough the region
Tuesday into Wednesday bringing better coverage in showers and
storms across all the area. Slightly cooler conditions will
spread into the area with this system for the middle of next week
as in the 70s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Thunderstorms are currently tracking across portions of
southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this morning. These
storms will produce heavy downpours leading to IFR to LIFR
conditions within the storms. MVFR ceilings will also occur this
morning. Scattered storms will remain possible and lift north
through the area this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
417 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
417 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will continue to affect areas along and north of
Highway 60 this morning. Scattered storms will remain possible
into this afternoon, mainly north of I-44. Additional storms may
then be possible across east central Kansas and west central
Missouri this evening and tonight. A few strong to severe storms
will be possible, with hail up to the size of Quarters and
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph the main risk. The tornado risk
is decreasing across the area early this morning as a cap starts
to build into the area. An isolated brief tornado may still be
possible with any storms tracking along the front. Cloud to ground
lightning strikes will also occur with the storms.

Flooding and flash flooding will remain possible this morning as
storms continue to develop and move over many of the same areas
that received flooding rains the past few days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered storms will be possible generally across east central
Kansas and west central Missouri Friday and Saturday, then over
more of the area on Sunday. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible with hail up to the size of quarters and damaging wind
gusts the risk. A front will then track through the area Tuesday
into Wednesday bringing more widespread rain chances to the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early this morning generally
along the Highway 60 corridor .

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW SPRINGFIELD       37.21N 93.38W
05/23/2019                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROADWAY AT STATE HWY EE AND
            HAZELTINE RD.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW SPRINGFIELD        37.22N 93.32W
05/23/2019                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS IN
            NORTHERN AND WESTERN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

CKR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

MOZ090-231145-
Greene MO-
605 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 645
AM CDT...

At 604 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Republic, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm. Additional heavy
rain is also expected.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield...                    Republic...
Battlefield...                    Willard...
Strafford...                      Brookline...
Turners...                        Bois D'arc...
Galloway...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 59 and 89.

LAT...LON 3709 9353 3710 9361 3727 9361 3732 9309
      3709 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1104Z 263DEG 38KT 3717 9357

DSA

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