Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Springfield, MO

471 
WGUS73 KSGF 231056
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

MOC039-057-085-167-185-231105-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-190523T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hickory MO-Cedar MO-Polk MO-St. Clair MO-Dade MO-
556 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN HICKORY...EASTERN CEDAR...
POLK...SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR AND NORTHERN DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 600 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to
pose a threat to life or property. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3790 9318 3773 9319 3773 9317 3760 9318
      3743 9408 3758 9407 3758 9399 3769 9391
      3804 9351

$$

DSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Monitoring conditions out in Kansas and Oklahoma as the area ramps
up for the fourth round of severe weather in the last five days.
Strong southerly winds are pumping up a very moist and unstable
air mass into the area. CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg are
moving into the area with 0-6km bulk shear values over 50 kts. A
PDS tornado watch has already been issued as the area is expecting
all modes of severe from late this afternoon into the overnight
hours.

In addition...will also be monitoring both rainfall rates and
amounts during the overnight period especially western and
northern areas of the CWA. CAMS models are indicating a basic
southwest to northeast movement through most of the evening along
a stalled frontal boundary before the storms take a turn to the
south. With PWAT values in the 1.0-1.5" range...additional
rainfall amounts of 1-2" with locally 3' are possible north of
I-44. Training will only exacerbate the flash flood potential. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through tomorrow morning.

As the upper low makes its way into the Great Lakes...the stalled
surface front will be situated across central Missouri. This will
keep the threat of both severe weather and potentially heavy rain
in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The overall pattern is not expected to change much over the
forecast period. An upper level ridge remains over the
southeastern states with an upper level trough along the
West Coast. As one system lifts out of the trough...another system
moves in to replace it. At the surface...this is reflected as low
pressure develops along the lee of the Rockies and advances up
the stalled frontal boundary towards the Great Lakes. This has the
effect of keeping the effective frontal boundary close enough to
the area to keep our weather unsettled.

Given the fact that soils remain saturated...it is not taking much
rain to produce flash flooding. Expect this unsettled pattern to
continue with perhaps a 12-24 hour respite between each system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

A frontal boundary situated from north central Oklahoma, through
eastern Kansas and into north central Missouri will be the main
focal point for thunderstorm development through the early evening
hours. This convection could impact the KJLN terminal at anytime
after 00Z, with KSGF and KBBG not seeing any activity until later
this evening or even after 06Z. VFR flight conditions expected for
the most part, but MVFR and localized IFR conditions will be
possible within any of the convective elements. Better chances for
MVFR ceilings will come after 09Z tonight, but rise back into VFR
conditions Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
823 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
823 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Significant hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Thunderstorms will continue to affect areas along and north of
  Interstate 44 this evening into the overnight hours. This dynamic
  system will be capable of producing hail up to the size of tennis
  balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph and tornadoes. A strong tornado
  or two may be possible.

  Flooding and flash flooding will again be possible tonight as
  storms develop and move over many of the same areas that
  received flooding rains the past few days. Between 1 and 2
  inches of rain will be possible with localized amounts around
  3 inches.

  Non-thunderstorm wind gusts to 30 mph are possible over western
  Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas late this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  Intermittent storm activity is expected from Thursday through
  the coming holiday weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will be needed in the next three hours for
  southeast Kansas and southwestern into Central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     TORNADO          2 SE CARL JUNCTION      37.16N 94.54W
05/22/2019                   JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN AND HOMES WITH ROOF
            DAMAGE ON LAKEVIEW LANE JUST WEST OF HWY 171
            AND CENTER CREEK IN CARL JUNCTION, MO TDS
            ALSO IN THIS AREA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

MOZ078-230245-
Cedar MO-
907 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CEDAR COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 906 PM CDT, Doppler radar and storm spotters were tracking a
tornado near Golden City, or 11 miles west of Greenfield, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake...                  Stockton State Park...
Stockton...                       Jerico Springs...
Umber View Heights...             Bearcreek...
Masters...                        Olympia...
Caplinger Mills...                Filley...
Wagoner...                        Arnica...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely. Listen for possible warnings
and be prepared to take appropriate action should severe weather
threaten.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3781 9407 3785 9406 3778 9363 3774 9363
      3774 9362 3764 9361 3763 9362 3758 9362
      3758 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 222DEG 22KT 3744 9406

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             5 N GOLDEN CITY         37.46N 94.10W
05/22/2019  E1.50 INCH       BARTON             MO   STORM CHASER

0830 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 38.39N 93.33W
05/22/2019  M1.00 INCH       BENTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
924 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     TORNADO          GOLDEN CITY             37.39N 94.09W
05/22/2019                   BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE GOLDEN CITY
            AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TORNADO          6 WNW DUDENVILLE        37.34N 94.19W
05/22/2019                   JASPER             MO   STORM CHASER

            STRUCTURE AND TREE DAMAGE OBSERVED BY STORM
            CHASER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
946 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     HAIL             3 NW UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS 37.66N 93.85W
05/22/2019  E1.00 INCH       CEDAR              MO   STORM CHASER

&&