Severe Thunderstorm Warning 290, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
153 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An intense cold front moves across our area this afternoon and
evening followed by colder high pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

We have a tornado watch in effect til 7pm for our mountains, and
should potentially see watches issued further east later this
afternoon.

Environment favorable for robust storms along a line, with 0-3km
SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 and bulk shear 50-60kts. We have had breaks
in the cloud cover allowing MUCAPES to reach around 1000 J/Kg.

As this line moves east there will be gusty to damaging winds,
with potential for quick tornado spinups, especially as the line
moves east of the Blue Ridge.

Models somewhat differ on timing of the line, but am leaning
toward the Nested NAM which has it exiting our region by 01-03z
tonight. Showers will linger behind the line for an hour or two.

As soon as the line and front moves through, winds will turn
west to northwest with gusts over 40 kts expected mainly from
the foothills west to the mountains. 6 hour pressure rise is
greatest ending at 03z tonight, of 10-15mb. This along with
45-60kt jet will lead to high wind warning criteria along and
near the Blue Ridge and Alleghanys this evening, then as the low
level jet exits to the northeast, winds will start to diminish
but should stay blustery through dawn Friday.

As for flooding, given speed of movement of line, threat is
limited to ponding of water and in poor drainage areas where
leaves may clog culverts.

Temperatures will drop quickly tonight behind the front into the
30s. Too much wind for frost formation. As the colder air
arrives and upslope flow enhances, will see some snow
showers/flurries across the western slopes, where an inch or
less could accumulate on the grass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Wind will continue to weaken through the day as high pressure
moves in. Skies clear in the west before lunchtime. Highs will
be in cooler in the 40s west to 50s east.

Quite chilly Friday night with frost/freeze conditions possible
east of the Blue Ridge. No headlines at this point due to busy
front end of the forecast.

Temperatures will rebound a bit on Saturday ahead of another cold front
rapidly approaching from the northwest. Moisture is limited with the
front so not much to speak of in terms of precipitation or clouds, but
expect winds to become a bit blustery again followed by a good surge of
upslope clouds for the evening and through Saturday night. Another
chilly night with frost/freeze conditions possible east of the Blue
Ridge.

Sunday will see a return to high pressure and a good amount of sun with
any lingering clouds west of the Ridge dissipating during the morning.
However, the surge of cold air behind the most recent cold front will
again take a toll and keep high temperatures on Sunday well below
normal. And if the growing season is still active east of the Ridge,
Sunday night will offer another good chance for a frost/freeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

A ridge of high pressure will set up over the Mid Atlantic and should
keep dry conditions overt the region through Monday night as it exits
offshore.

Afterward, forecast confidence decreases considerably as the ECMWF
and the GFS differ on the timing and initialization of a new area of
low pressure developing somewhere near the Southeast coast. Rain
chances seem to generally creep up slowly during Tuesday and
Wednesday although rainfall amounts do not appear impressive.
However, the overall discrepancies of the synoptic picture in the
models make it difficult to give more than just low chance PoPs at
this time, but overall looks cooler than normal and dry through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Southerly flow increases sending gusts to 20-25kts. A line of
showers/storms will bring gusts over 30kts and possibly as high
as 45-50kts with ceilings mainly in the MVFR to low end VFR
range. Rain will drop vsbys to IFR or lower at the onset, then
MVFR behind the line.

Winds will turn quickly west behind the line/front to the
west/northwest. This occurs first at BLF/LWB 22-23z, the BCB/ROA
by 0z, and LYH/DAN by 03z.

Behind the front winds turn to the west-northwest with gusts
increasing to 25 to 40 knots. Higher elevations, have the
potential for even stronger winds.

Once the front goes through and the deeper moisture exits the
region, clouds will clear east of the Blue Ridge. A layer of
low level moisture will remain over the mountains with MVFR to
IFR ceilings on the western slopes of the central Appalachians
through Friday morning.

Above average confidence on the timing of the front and the
improvement to VFR this afternoon.

Average confidence on ceiling improvement this morning ahead of
the front once mixing begins.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

The wind is expected to diminish by Friday evening with a
return to VFR. High pressure is expected to provide VFR weather
through the weekend. A secondary, dry front, will cross the
area Saturday night. The biggest by-product from this feature
will be enhanced winds across the ridges and some low MVFR
cloudiness in the WV mountains Saturday night into Sunday
morning. VFR expected Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
     VAZ007-009>014-018-032>035-043>045.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday
     for VAZ015>017-019-020-022>024.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
     NCZ003-004-019-020.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday
     for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...MBS/WP
LONG TERM...MBS/PW/WP
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
325 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

VAZ014-018-011930-
Montgomery-Craig-
325 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 687 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>045-011930-
Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-
325 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 687 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ005-006-VAZ046-047-058-059-011930-
Rockingham-Caswell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
325 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 687 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ016-017-019-020-022>024-011930-
Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
325 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 687 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and west
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ007-009>013-WVZ042>044-507-508-011930-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
325 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 685 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-011930-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-
325 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 685 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina and
southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1019 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ002-003-VAZ016-032-311445-
Surry-Alleghany-Patrick-Carroll-
1019 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ALLEGHANY AND
NORTHWESTERN SURRY COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...CARROLL
AND WEST CENTRAL PATRICK COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

At 1019 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Roaring Gap,
or near Mountain Park, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsville...
Fancy Gap...
Cana...
Mountain Park...
Bottom...
Dugspur...
and Laurel Fork.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3642 8101 3656 8093 3656 8084 3662 8089
      3688 8074 3677 8051 3671 8046 3634 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 213DEG 56KT 3645 8093

PW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N BOONE               36.23N 81.67W
10/31/2019                   WATAUGA            NC   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED A CALL FROM THE PUBLIC THAT THEY
            WERE WORKING ON THEIR HOME WHEN THE WIND
            RIPPED THE ROOF OFF. TIMING ESTIMATED BY
            REPORT.

&&

RR