Alert archive / Virginia / High Wind Warnings in 2019

High Wind Warning 8, NWS Blacksburg, VA

October 31, 201914 counties in Virginia; Alleghany County, Ashe County, Watauga County, North Carolina

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this high wind warning at Oct 31, 2019, 9:55 AM EDT for 14 counties in Virginia; Alleghany County, Ashe County, Watauga County, North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 31, 2019, 6:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 11 hr. 12 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 31, 2019, 9:55 AM EDT (13:55 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 31, 2019, 6:00 PM EDT
Expired
Nov 1, 2019, 4:40 AM EDT
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA

Counties Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Bath County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Floyd County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 31, 6:03 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGHillsville, VAMULTIPLE TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE FROM 4:30 TO 5:30PM.
Oct 31, 6:55 PM EDTFLOOD2 Sw Pipers Gap, VACOAL CREEK ROAD PARTIALLY COVERED WITH WATER.
Oct 31, 7:45 PM EDTFLOOD1 Ene Woodlawn, VAGLADE CREEK ROAD REPORTED UNDERWATER (UNKNOWN DEPTH).
Oct 31, 7:45 PM EDTFLOOD2 Ese Whitehead, NCPINE SWAMP CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS OVER PINE SWAMP ROAD.
Oct 31, 8:31 PM EDTNON-TSTM WND GST 651 W Aho, NCMESONET STATION BLOWING ROCK.
Oct 31, 8:35 PM EDTNON-TSTM WND GST 582 Nnw Wagoner, NCAWOS STATION JEFFERSON.
Oct 31, 9:01 PM EDTNON-TSTM WND GST 681 W Aho, NCCORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 1 W AHO.
Oct 31, 9:05 PM EDTNON-TSTM WND GST 641 Nne West Jefferson, NCCORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 1 NNE WEST JEFFERSON.
Oct 31, 10:00 PM EDTDEBRIS FLOW2 Wnw Fries, VADEBRIS FLOW ACROSS WINDING ROAD IN FRIES.
Nov 1, 12:35 AM EDTNON-TSTM WND GST 583 Nnw Wagoner, NC
Nov 1, 1:01 AM EDTNON-TSTM WND GST 681 W Aho, NC
Nov 1, 1:05 AM EDTNON-TSTM WND GST 641 Nne West Jefferson, NC

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2019-10-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 50 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2019-10-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 270 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
50 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-79 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
621 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
270 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
270 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

856 
WWUS71 KRNK 311355
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-312200-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0008.191031T2200Z-191101T1000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, and Floyd
955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Grayson, Carroll and Floyd Counties. In 
  North Carolina, Ashe, Alleghany NC and Watauga Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Damaging winds may occur ahead of the front
  with a line of showers and storms, the west to northwest winds
  behind the front will bring a second surge of winds this
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

VAZ019-020-022>024-312200-
/O.UPG.KRNK.HW.A.0003.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0008.191031T2200Z-191101T1000Z/
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Including the cities of Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, 
Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, and Buena Vista
955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Alleghany VA, Bath, Roanoke, Botetourt and Rockbridge
  Counties, mainly the higher elevations.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Damaging winds may occur ahead of the front
  with a line of showers and storms, the west to northwest winds
  behind the front will bring a second surge of winds this
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

VAZ018-WVZ043-044-507-508-312200-
/O.UPG.KRNK.HW.A.0003.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/
Craig-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of New Castle, Hinton, Hix, Union, 
Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, 
and Rainelle
955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Craig County. In West Virginia, Summers, 
  Monroe, Eastern Greenbrier and Western Greenbrier Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-032>035-043>045-WVZ042-312200-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/
Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Mercer-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville,
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, 
Pulaski, Blacksburg, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, 
Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Bluefield, and Flat Top
955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Virginia, north central and northwest North Carolina 
  and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
775 
WWUS71 KRNK 312016
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
416 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-019-020-022>024-010430-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0008.191031T2200Z-191101T1000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, 
Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle,
Lexington, and Buena Vista
416 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher elevations of the Alleghanys and Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Damaging winds may occur ahead of the 
  front with a line of showers and storms, the west to northwest 
  winds behind the front will bring a second surge of winds this 
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-018-032>035-043>045-WVZ042>044-
507-508-010430-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/
Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville,
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, 
Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, 
Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
416 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southeast West Virginia, Southwest Virginia, the
  Northwest North Carolina foothills.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
349 
WWUS71 KRNK 010307
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1107 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-019-020-022>024-011000-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, 
Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle,
Lexington, and Buena Vista
1107 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher elevations of the Alleghanys and Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...Through 6 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use extreme
caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-018-032>035-043>045-WVZ042>044-
507-508-011115-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville,
Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, 
Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, 
Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Bluefield, Flat Top, 
Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, 
Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
1107 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southeast West Virginia, Southwest Virginia, the 
  Northwest North Carolina foothills.

* WHEN...Through noon EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
451 
WWUS71 KRNK 010840
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

VAZ022>024-011600-
/O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0005.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Including the cities of Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, 
and Buena Vista
440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 31 will
  result in frost formation. For the Wind Advisory, northwest
  winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Roanoke, Botetourt and Rockbridge Counties.

* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. 
  For the Wind Advisory, until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left 
  uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-019-020-011600-
/O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-191101T1000Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, 
Clifton Forge, Covington, and Hot Springs
440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Grayson, Carroll, Floyd, Alleghany VA and 
  Bath Counties. In North Carolina, Ashe, Alleghany NC and 
  Watauga Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>045-011600-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0005.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville,
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, 
and Lynchburg
440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will
  result in frost formation. For the Wind Advisory, northwest
  winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and northwest North 
  Carolina.

* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. 
  For the Wind Advisory, until noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left 
  uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

NCZ005-006-VAZ046-047-058-059-011600-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0005.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/
Rockingham-Caswell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Eden, Yanceyville, Appomattox, 
South Boston, and Keysville
440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Appomattox, Buckingham, Halifax and 
  Charlotte Counties. In North Carolina, Rockingham and Caswell 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

VAZ007-009>014-018-WVZ042>044-507-508-011600-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, 
Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle, Bluefield, 
Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, 
Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southeast West Virginia, Southwest Virginia, the 
  Northwest North Carolina foothills.

* WHEN...Through noon today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Oct 31, 7:47 AM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 7:47 AM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
747 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will head north through North Carolina and Virginia
today. An intense cold front moves across our area this
afternoon and evening followed by colder high pressure for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Deepening closed upper low will cross into the Great Lakes today and
tonight and will push an intense cold front across the Mid Atlantic
region this afternoon and evening. Models were similar with the
timing and synoptic features of this system. Southwest Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina will start the
day in the warm sector. Forcing is strong with the right rear
quadrant of the 140 knot upper jet aiding in lift.

Abundant moisture streaming north out of the Gulf of Mexico has
precipitable water values well above normal. Storm motion and the
speed of the front will limit flooding potential but rates withing
the line of thunderstorms along the front will be heavy. Will
mention the threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, especially
since leaves will be blown down and may clog urban drainage systems.
Deeper moisture exits the east by midnight with clearing east of the
Blue Ridge overnight but low level upslope clouds will remain over
the mountains through Friday morning.

Enhanced threat of severe thunderstorms unchanged in the latest Day
One Storm Prediction Center outlook. CAPES up to 1200 J/Kg this
afternoon along with impressive shear and helicity values in the 300-
600 range support the primary threat of damaging wind.

850mb temperatures drop 15 deg. C in 12 hours with this front. The
strong cold air advection will combine with large pressure rises, in
the range of 10 to 15 mb/6hrs, to produce very gusty wind. Will be
issuing wind advisory for the foothills and to the west and a high
wind watch from Roanoke north into the Greenbrier Valley and the
Alleghany Highlands. The greatest threat of damaging winds will be
immediately behind the front through about 09Z/5AM but the longer
expiration is a buffer for what the next round of guidance suggests.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Windy conditions will begin to relax on Friday as high pressure starts
to build in behind the strong cold front. Lingering upslope clouds and
any showers/flurries west of the Blue Ridge will dissipate during the
morning with a good deal of sunshine for the afternoon. However, the
strong surge of cold air behind the cold front will make for notably
colder conditions with temperatures running well below normal as we
start November. Quite chilly Friday night with frost/freeze conditions
possible east of the Blue Ridge.

Temperatures will rebound a bit on Saturday ahead of another cold front
rapidly approaching from the northwest. Moisture is limited with the
front so not much to speak of in terms of precipitation or clouds, but
expect winds to become a bit blustery again followed by a good surge of
upslope clouds for the evening and through Saturday night. Another
chilly night with frost/freeze conditions possible east of the Blue
Ridge.

Sunday will see a return to high pressure and a good amount of sun with
any lingering clouds west of the Ridge dissipating during the morning.
However, the surge of cold air behind the most recent cold front will
again take a toll and keep high temperatures on Sunday well below
normal. And if the growing season is still active east of the Ridge,
Sunday night will offer another good chance for a frost/freeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

A ridge of high pressure will set up over the Mid Atlantic and should
keep dry conditions overt the region through Monday night as it exits
offshore.

Afterward, forecast confidence decreases considerably as the ECMWF
and the GFS differ on the timing and initialization of a new area of
low pressure developing somewhere near the Southeast coast. Rain
chances seem to generally creep up slowly during Tuesday and
Wednesday although rainfall amounts do not appear impressive.
However, the overall discrepancies of the synoptic picture in the
models make it difficult to give more than just low chance PoPs at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 740 AM EDT Thursday...

Southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front this morning. Low
level wind shear expected at most sites early then as mixing
begins wind gusts will be 15 to 25 knots.

A quasi-linear convective system is expected to move east and
across the mountains this afternoon. This line of deep
convection is expected to cross the area from west to east
between 16Z/noon and 02Z/10PM. Embedded thunderstorms within
this line of showers may contain damaging wind gusts (50 kts).
Timing on the high resolution models showed good consensus.

Behind the front winds turn to the west-northwest with gusts
increasing to 25 to 40 knots. Higher elevations, especially
north of KROA have the potential for even stronger winds.

Once the front goes through and the deeper moisture exits the
region, clouds will clear east of the Blue Ridge. A layer of
low level moisture will remain over the mountains with MVFR to
IFR ceilings on the western slopes of the central Appalachians
through Friday morning.

Above average confidence on the timing of the front and the
improvement to VFR this afternoon.
Average confidence on ceiling improvement this morning ahead of
the front once mixing begins.

.Extended Aviation Discussion...

The wind is expected to diminish by Friday evening with a
return to VFR. High pressure is expected to provide VFR weather
through the weekend. A secondary, dry front, will cross the
area Saturday night. The biggest by-product from this feature
will be enhanced winds across the ridges and some low MVFR
cloudiness in the WV mountains Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...High Wind Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Friday
     morning for VAZ018>020-022>024.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
     VAZ007-009>017-032>035-043>045.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
     NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...High Wind Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Friday
     morning for WVZ043-044-507-508.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
     WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/PW
AVIATION...AMS/PM
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 5:02 AM EDT, 4 hours 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>017-WVZ042-010900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Mercer-
502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce
damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ018>020-WVZ043-044-507-508-010900-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce
damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ032>035-043-010900-
Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce
damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ022>024-010900-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce
damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ005-006-VAZ046-047-058-059-010900-
Rockingham-Caswell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce
damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also
expected tonight into Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ044-045-010900-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-
502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce
damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also
expected tonight into Friday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 31, 4:40 AM EDT, 5 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
440 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

VAZ043-044-310915-
Henry-Pittsylvania-
440 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA AND EAST
CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES...

At 439 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sandy River,
or near Axton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham...
Blairs...
Callands...
Java...
Leatherwood...
Swansonville...
and Dry Fork.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3672 7979 3694 7946 3680 7915 3678 7916
      3661 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 237DEG 34KT 3668 7963

MBS
Special weather statement, Oct 31, 9:14 AM EDT, 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
914 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

VAZ017-032-033-311345-
Franklin-Patrick-Floyd-
914 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN FLOYD...CENTRAL PATRICK
AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 914 AM EDT, a thunderstorm was located over Meadows Of Dan, or
near Woolwine, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Floyd...
Woolwine...
Ferrum...
Terrys Fork...
Endicott...
Meadows Of Dan...
and Mabry Mill.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3665 8049 3670 8045 3671 8047 3704 8033
      3708 8028 3698 7995 3660 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1314Z 212DEG 40KT 3673 8039

PW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 31, 4:40 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKPittsylvania35 min
Oct 31, 4:48 AM EDTHigh Wind WatchRNKAlleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Roanoke, Rockbridge and 5 more5 hr
Oct 31, 4:48 AM EDTWind AdvisoryRNKAlleghany, Amherst, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt and 27 more28 hr
Oct 31, 9:14 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKFloyd31 min
Oct 31, 10:19 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCarroll26 min
Oct 31, 1:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Giles, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe73 min
Oct 31, 2:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Giles, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe90 min
Oct 31, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCraig, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford40 min
Oct 31, 4:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, City of Covington86 min
Oct 31, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCarroll, Floyd, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke, City of Radford60 min
Oct 31, 4:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCarroll, Grayson, City of Galax47 min
Oct 31, 5:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKFranklin27 min
Oct 31, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Bedford, City of Lynchburg65 min
Oct 31, 5:38 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKCarroll, Floyd, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Galax, City of Radford112 min
Oct 31, 5:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCarroll, Floyd, Franklin, Patrick33 min
Oct 31, 6:27 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKRoanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem68 min
Oct 31, 6:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKPittsylvania, City of Danville40 min
Oct 31, 7:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAppomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax54 min
Oct 31, 7:27 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKCharlotte, Halifax48 min
Oct 31, 7:29 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKCharlotte, Halifax36 min
Oct 31, 3:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Ashe, Watauga, Wilkes75 min
Oct 31, 6:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKRockingham45 min
Oct 31, 6:37 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKCaswell, Rockingham39 min
Oct 31, 6:52 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKCaswell23 min
Oct 31, 7:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCaswell30 min

Nearby

High Wind Warnings in Virginia, 2019High Wind Warnings in North Carolina, 2019Every high wind warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.