Alert archive / Virginia / High Wind Warnings in 2019
High Wind Warning 8, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this high wind warning at Oct 31, 2019, 9:55 AM EDT for 14 counties in Virginia; Alleghany County, Ashe County, Watauga County, North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 31, 2019, 6:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 11 hr. 12 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 31, 2019, 9:55 AM EDT (13:55 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 31, 2019, 6:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Nov 1, 2019, 4:40 AM EDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
Counties Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Bath County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Floyd County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | Hillsville, VA | MULTIPLE TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE FROM 4:30 TO 5:30PM. |
| Oct 31, 6:55 PM EDT | FLOOD | 2 Sw Pipers Gap, VA | COAL CREEK ROAD PARTIALLY COVERED WITH WATER. |
| Oct 31, 7:45 PM EDT | FLOOD | 1 Ene Woodlawn, VA | GLADE CREEK ROAD REPORTED UNDERWATER (UNKNOWN DEPTH). |
| Oct 31, 7:45 PM EDT | FLOOD | 2 Ese Whitehead, NC | PINE SWAMP CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS OVER PINE SWAMP ROAD. |
| Oct 31, 8:31 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 65 | 1 W Aho, NC | MESONET STATION BLOWING ROCK. |
| Oct 31, 8:35 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | 2 Nnw Wagoner, NC | AWOS STATION JEFFERSON. |
| Oct 31, 9:01 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 68 | 1 W Aho, NC | CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 1 W AHO. |
| Oct 31, 9:05 PM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 64 | 1 Nne West Jefferson, NC | CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 1 NNE WEST JEFFERSON. |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM EDT | DEBRIS FLOW | 2 Wnw Fries, VA | DEBRIS FLOW ACROSS WINDING ROAD IN FRIES. |
| Nov 1, 12:35 AM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 58 | 3 Nnw Wagoner, NC | |
| Nov 1, 1:01 AM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 68 | 1 W Aho, NC | |
| Nov 1, 1:05 AM EDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 64 | 1 Nne West Jefferson, NC |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 50 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -79 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 621 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
856 WWUS71 KRNK 311355 NPWRNK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-312200- /O.UPG.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0008.191031T2200Z-191101T1000Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, and Floyd 955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...In Virginia, Grayson, Carroll and Floyd Counties. In North Carolina, Ashe, Alleghany NC and Watauga Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Damaging winds may occur ahead of the front with a line of showers and storms, the west to northwest winds behind the front will bring a second surge of winds this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ VAZ019-020-022>024-312200- /O.UPG.KRNK.HW.A.0003.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0008.191031T2200Z-191101T1000Z/ Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Including the cities of Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, and Buena Vista 955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Alleghany VA, Bath, Roanoke, Botetourt and Rockbridge Counties, mainly the higher elevations. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Damaging winds may occur ahead of the front with a line of showers and storms, the west to northwest winds behind the front will bring a second surge of winds this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ VAZ018-WVZ043-044-507-508-312200- /O.UPG.KRNK.HW.A.0003.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/ /O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/ Craig-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of New Castle, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...In Virginia, Craig County. In West Virginia, Summers, Monroe, Eastern Greenbrier and Western Greenbrier Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-032>035-043>045-WVZ042-312200- /O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/ Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe- Pulaski-Montgomery-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry- Pittsylvania-Campbell-Mercer- Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Bluefield, and Flat Top 955 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Virginia, north central and northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
3 follow-up statements
775 WWUS71 KRNK 312016 NPWRNK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 416 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-019-020-022>024-010430- /O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0008.191031T2200Z-191101T1000Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, and Buena Vista 416 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Higher elevations of the Alleghanys and Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Damaging winds may occur ahead of the front with a line of showers and storms, the west to northwest winds behind the front will bring a second surge of winds this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-018-032>035-043>045-WVZ042>044- 507-508-010430- /O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.191031T2200Z-191101T1600Z/ Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe- Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry- Pittsylvania-Campbell-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 416 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Southeast West Virginia, Southwest Virginia, the Northwest North Carolina foothills. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
349 WWUS71 KRNK 010307 NPWRNK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1107 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-019-020-022>024-011000- /O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-191101T1000Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, and Buena Vista 1107 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Higher elevations of the Alleghanys and Blue Ridge. * WHEN...Through 6 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use extreme caution if you must drive. && $$ NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ007-009>014-018-032>035-043>045-WVZ042>044- 507-508-011115- /O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/ Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe- Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry- Pittsylvania-Campbell-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 1107 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Southeast West Virginia, Southwest Virginia, the Northwest North Carolina foothills. * WHEN...Through noon EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
451 WWUS71 KRNK 010840 NPWRNK URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 VAZ022>024-011600- /O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-191101T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0005.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/ /O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/ Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Including the cities of Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, and Buena Vista 440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost formation. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Roanoke, Botetourt and Rockbridge Counties. * WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Wind Advisory, until noon EDT today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Take steps to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-019-020-011600- /O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-191101T1000Z/ /O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Clifton Forge, Covington, and Hot Springs 440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...In Virginia, Grayson, Carroll, Floyd, Alleghany VA and Bath Counties. In North Carolina, Ashe, Alleghany NC and Watauga Counties. * WHEN...Until noon EDT today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>045-011600- /O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0005.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/ /O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/ Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry- Pittsylvania-Campbell- Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Martinsville, Danville, and Lynchburg 440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. * WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Wind Advisory, until noon EDT today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Take steps to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ NCZ005-006-VAZ046-047-058-059-011600- /O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0005.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/ Rockingham-Caswell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- Including the cities of Eden, Yanceyville, Appomattox, South Boston, and Keysville 440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Virginia, Appomattox, Buckingham, Halifax and Charlotte Counties. In North Carolina, Rockingham and Caswell Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. && $$ VAZ007-009>014-018-WVZ042>044-507-508-011600- /O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191101T1600Z/ Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Mercer- Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle, Bluefield, Flat Top, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Alderson, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 440 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Southeast West Virginia, Southwest Virginia, the Northwest North Carolina foothills. * WHEN...Through noon today. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Oct 31, 7:47 AM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 31, 7:47 AM EDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
747 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will head north through North Carolina and Virginia
today. An intense cold front moves across our area this
afternoon and evening followed by colder high pressure for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...
Deepening closed upper low will cross into the Great Lakes today and
tonight and will push an intense cold front across the Mid Atlantic
region this afternoon and evening. Models were similar with the
timing and synoptic features of this system. Southwest Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina will start the
day in the warm sector. Forcing is strong with the right rear
quadrant of the 140 knot upper jet aiding in lift.
Abundant moisture streaming north out of the Gulf of Mexico has
precipitable water values well above normal. Storm motion and the
speed of the front will limit flooding potential but rates withing
the line of thunderstorms along the front will be heavy. Will
mention the threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, especially
since leaves will be blown down and may clog urban drainage systems.
Deeper moisture exits the east by midnight with clearing east of the
Blue Ridge overnight but low level upslope clouds will remain over
the mountains through Friday morning.
Enhanced threat of severe thunderstorms unchanged in the latest Day
One Storm Prediction Center outlook. CAPES up to 1200 J/Kg this
afternoon along with impressive shear and helicity values in the 300-
600 range support the primary threat of damaging wind.
850mb temperatures drop 15 deg. C in 12 hours with this front. The
strong cold air advection will combine with large pressure rises, in
the range of 10 to 15 mb/6hrs, to produce very gusty wind. Will be
issuing wind advisory for the foothills and to the west and a high
wind watch from Roanoke north into the Greenbrier Valley and the
Alleghany Highlands. The greatest threat of damaging winds will be
immediately behind the front through about 09Z/5AM but the longer
expiration is a buffer for what the next round of guidance suggests.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...
Windy conditions will begin to relax on Friday as high pressure starts
to build in behind the strong cold front. Lingering upslope clouds and
any showers/flurries west of the Blue Ridge will dissipate during the
morning with a good deal of sunshine for the afternoon. However, the
strong surge of cold air behind the cold front will make for notably
colder conditions with temperatures running well below normal as we
start November. Quite chilly Friday night with frost/freeze conditions
possible east of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures will rebound a bit on Saturday ahead of another cold front
rapidly approaching from the northwest. Moisture is limited with the
front so not much to speak of in terms of precipitation or clouds, but
expect winds to become a bit blustery again followed by a good surge of
upslope clouds for the evening and through Saturday night. Another
chilly night with frost/freeze conditions possible east of the Blue
Ridge.
Sunday will see a return to high pressure and a good amount of sun with
any lingering clouds west of the Ridge dissipating during the morning.
However, the surge of cold air behind the most recent cold front will
again take a toll and keep high temperatures on Sunday well below
normal. And if the growing season is still active east of the Ridge,
Sunday night will offer another good chance for a frost/freeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the Mid Atlantic and should
keep dry conditions overt the region through Monday night as it exits
offshore.
Afterward, forecast confidence decreases considerably as the ECMWF
and the GFS differ on the timing and initialization of a new area of
low pressure developing somewhere near the Southeast coast. Rain
chances seem to generally creep up slowly during Tuesday and
Wednesday although rainfall amounts do not appear impressive.
However, the overall discrepancies of the synoptic picture in the
models make it difficult to give more than just low chance PoPs at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 740 AM EDT Thursday...
Southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front this morning. Low
level wind shear expected at most sites early then as mixing
begins wind gusts will be 15 to 25 knots.
A quasi-linear convective system is expected to move east and
across the mountains this afternoon. This line of deep
convection is expected to cross the area from west to east
between 16Z/noon and 02Z/10PM. Embedded thunderstorms within
this line of showers may contain damaging wind gusts (50 kts).
Timing on the high resolution models showed good consensus.
Behind the front winds turn to the west-northwest with gusts
increasing to 25 to 40 knots. Higher elevations, especially
north of KROA have the potential for even stronger winds.
Once the front goes through and the deeper moisture exits the
region, clouds will clear east of the Blue Ridge. A layer of
low level moisture will remain over the mountains with MVFR to
IFR ceilings on the western slopes of the central Appalachians
through Friday morning.
Above average confidence on the timing of the front and the
improvement to VFR this afternoon.
Average confidence on ceiling improvement this morning ahead of
the front once mixing begins.
.Extended Aviation Discussion...
The wind is expected to diminish by Friday evening with a
return to VFR. High pressure is expected to provide VFR weather
through the weekend. A secondary, dry front, will cross the
area Saturday night. The biggest by-product from this feature
will be enhanced winds across the ridges and some low MVFR
cloudiness in the WV mountains Saturday night into Sunday
morning.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...High Wind Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Friday
morning for VAZ018>020-022>024.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
VAZ007-009>017-032>035-043>045.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...High Wind Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Friday
morning for WVZ043-044-507-508.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for
WVZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS/PW
AVIATION...AMS/PMHazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 5:02 AM EDT, 4 hours 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>017-WVZ042-010900- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski- Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Mercer- 502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. VAZ018>020-WVZ043-044-507-508-010900- Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- 502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ032>035-043-010900- Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry- 502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. VAZ022>024-010900- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- 502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce damaging winds, localized flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Watch. Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ005-006-VAZ046-047-058-059-010900- Rockingham-Caswell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. VAZ044-045-010900- Pittsylvania-Campbell- 502 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. Strong winds are also expected tonight into Friday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Areas of frost are likely for Friday night into Saturday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 31, 4:40 AM EDT, 5 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
440 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
VAZ043-044-310915-
Henry-Pittsylvania-
440 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA AND EAST
CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES...
At 439 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sandy River,
or near Axton, moving northeast at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Chatham...
Blairs...
Callands...
Java...
Leatherwood...
Swansonville...
and Dry Fork.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3672 7979 3694 7946 3680 7915 3678 7916
3661 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 237DEG 34KT 3668 7963
MBSSpecial weather statement, Oct 31, 9:14 AM EDT, 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
914 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
VAZ017-032-033-311345-
Franklin-Patrick-Floyd-
914 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN FLOYD...CENTRAL PATRICK
AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...
At 914 AM EDT, a thunderstorm was located over Meadows Of Dan, or
near Woolwine, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Floyd...
Woolwine...
Ferrum...
Terrys Fork...
Endicott...
Meadows Of Dan...
and Mabry Mill.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3665 8049 3670 8045 3671 8047 3704 8033
3708 8028 3698 7995 3660 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1314Z 212DEG 40KT 3673 8039
PWThe office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 4:40 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Pittsylvania | 35 min |
| Oct 31, 4:48 AM EDT | High Wind Watch | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Roanoke, Rockbridge and 5 more | 5 hr |
| Oct 31, 4:48 AM EDT | Wind Advisory | RNK | Alleghany, Amherst, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt and 27 more | 28 hr |
| Oct 31, 9:14 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Floyd | 31 min |
| Oct 31, 10:19 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Carroll | 26 min |
| Oct 31, 1:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Giles, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe | 73 min |
| Oct 31, 2:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Giles, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe | 90 min |
| Oct 31, 3:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Craig, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford | 40 min |
| Oct 31, 4:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, City of Covington | 86 min |
| Oct 31, 4:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, Floyd, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke, City of Radford | 60 min |
| Oct 31, 4:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax | 47 min |
| Oct 31, 5:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Franklin | 27 min |
| Oct 31, 5:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, City of Lynchburg | 65 min |
| Oct 31, 5:38 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RNK | Carroll, Floyd, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Galax, City of Radford | 112 min |
| Oct 31, 5:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, Floyd, Franklin, Patrick | 33 min |
| Oct 31, 6:27 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem | 68 min |
| Oct 31, 6:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Pittsylvania, City of Danville | 40 min |
| Oct 31, 7:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Appomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax | 54 min |
| Oct 31, 7:27 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Charlotte, Halifax | 48 min |
| Oct 31, 7:29 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Charlotte, Halifax | 36 min |
| Oct 31, 3:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Ashe, Watauga, Wilkes | 75 min |
| Oct 31, 6:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Rockingham | 45 min |
| Oct 31, 6:37 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Caswell, Rockingham | 39 min |
| Oct 31, 6:52 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Caswell | 23 min |
| Oct 31, 7:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Caswell | 30 min |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in Virginia, 2019High Wind Warnings in North Carolina, 2019Every high wind warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.