River Flood Warning 15, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
355 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight into Sunday
morning, finally bringing an end to the rain, but accompanied by
strong and gusty west winds. High pressure building into the region
behind the front Monday will bring diminishing winds and also
provide mostly sunny conditions along with milder temperatures for
the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

A piece of energy and isentropic lift starting to edge out of the
area this afternoon. Even though the rain may not completely stop,
it may become drizzle, the intensities will weaken. Overnight, the
focus will be with convective showers associated with a cold front.
With an already saturated ground, rainfall rates will quickly
increase the amount of water going into creeks, streams, and rivers.
The environment overnight is more conducive for flash flooding, but
will keep hydrology headlines as a Flood Watch to avoid confusion,
especially with ongoing short-fused Flood Warnings.

As the cold front approaches the area, increasing southwest winds
will bring possible wind gusts that could topple trees and cause
power outages across the area, even though speeds may be below
criteria. The stronger winds will come behind the front. Strong
pressures with a broad 50-60 kts low level jet Sunday morning into
Monday morning, could bring down several trees and cause widespread
power outages. With this in mind, a High Wind Warning/Advisories
will be posted for the area.

Temperatures, ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon,
should warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s by sunrise Sunday. As the
front tracks across the region, mountain temperatures may hold
steady until the afternoon, then fall into the 40s. The later
arrival of cold air should allow for a normal diurnal max
temperature east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

This period of the forecast will feature a post frontal
environment with strong west-northwest winds. A strong broad low
level jet with 50-60kt cross barrier flow will be in place
Sunday night and early Monday. This will result in windy
conditions, especially at ridge top level. Soft ground from all
the rain will make us very susceptible to downed trees. The
pressure gradient is forecast to relax Monday night into Tue.

A couple of days of drying is forecast for Monday and Tuesday,
associated with High Pressure which is expected to provide
mostly clear skies and NO PRECIPITATION. Temperatures will
return to the seasonal norm, may even favor a couple degrees
above normal by mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Saturday...

A northern stream cold front will try to join forces with a southern
stream disturbance late Wednesday and bring a chance for rain
showers. At this time, the two do not phase until both systems move
off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday evening. Dry high pressure will
briefly keep the area dry before another phasing attempt of the
northern/southern streams takes place toward the end of the
week. The second attempt may bring a better opportunity for
precipitation in the Friday/Saturday time frame.

Temperatures will favor the seasonal norm.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Saturday...

Little change in the weather pattern through the TAF forecast
period across the RNK CWA, with widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings
and MVFR visibilities, occasionally IFR in fog and heavier rain
periods. 100% probabilities of light rain with occasional
moderate rain and attendant areas of fog through the TAF valid
period. A cold front will begin to approach the area from the
west, bring a round of convective showers overnight.

Otherwise, winds will be mostly ESE-ENE today in the wedge at
speeds of 5-8kts, a bit higher and gusty in the typical
southwest VA/southeast WV area around KBLF and KMKJ. Winds will
become southwest after the frontal passage Sunday and become
increasingly strong and gusty by afternoon. Also, as the front
approaches tonight, low level wind shear (WS020/23040KT) will
become an issue for flight across the mountains, then
everywhere Sunday morning..

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Cold front is expected to sweep east through the Mid Atlantic
area on Sunday, gradually diminishing/ending the threat for
precipitation with subsequent return to VFR conditions east of
the Blue Ridge during the afternoon.

However, colder upslope winds from the west or northwest
following the front will likely maintain the threat for sub-VFR
weather west of the Blue Ridge through Sunday night, but dry
air will allow VFR conditions to return to all areas Monday,
which should continue into Tuesday before the next frontal
system arrives in the Wed-Thu time frame.

Winds are expected to become strong and gusty behind the front
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, especially over the
mountains, until high pressure can sufficiently build into the
region later Monday into Tuesday, thereby relaxing the pressure
gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 PM EST Saturday...

Flood Watch will remain in effect into Sunday.

A persistent light to moderate rain has promoted a gradual
inundation of the forecast area with many larger streams and
rivers going into flood. In addition, there has been nuisance
flooding from poor drainage, in addition to mud/land slides.

Concern for the overnight is potential for more rain, some of
which may be heavy at times associated with the deep convection
ahead of the approaching cold front. If deep convection occurs
ontop of the already saturated ground, then Flash Flooding will
become a concern along with additional mud/land slides.

Once the rain comes to an end with the frontal passage Sunday,
river flooding will linger on some of the major river into early
next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ007-009>020-022>024.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ007-009>020.
     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ013.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ032>035-043.
     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for VAZ022>024-032>035-
     043>047-058-059.
     Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night
     for VAZ044>047-058-059.
NC...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     NCZ001-002-018.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NCZ001-002-018.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     NCZ003-004-019-020.
     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for NCZ003>006-019-020.
     Wind Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night
     for NCZ005-006.
WV...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RCS
HYDROLOGY...PM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     FLOOD            3 NNE ADWOLF            36.83N 81.57W
02/23/2019                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            SMYTH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS OLD EBENEZER
            RD WEST OF MARION IS FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
315 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     FLOOD            THOMAS BRIDGE           36.77N 81.57W
02/23/2019                   SMYTH              VA   PUBLIC

            THOMAS BRIDGE RD NEAR ADWOLFE IS FLOODED AND
            CLOSED.

&&

AL

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