Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
339 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and upper level trough will move across central NC
tonight and reach the coast Saturday afternoon. A second cold
front will move through the area on Sunday and Sunday night.
High pressure will build into the region on Monday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 340 PM Friday...

...Severe thunderstorm watch number 300 is in effect until 03Z across
all of central NC...

This afternoon and evening will feature the most convectively day we
have seen in several weeks and likely the best chance of rain for
the next 6 days.

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending across the northern
Chesapeake Bay west into the Blue Ridge of VA and south across the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians. A prominent surface trough extends
from near Sanford east to near Goldsboro and Greenville. North of the
trough surface winds have become northerly with surface dew points in
the lower 60s. South of the trough, winds are southwesterly and gusty
with dew points in the mid to upper 60s.

A vigorous shortwave trough with 50+kts of flow at 500 hPa was moving
across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. This strong
after vortex will move east reaching the VA and NC coast after
daybreak on Saturday. This feature will provide ample forcing
for ascent and will lead to the continued development of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area
this afternoon and tonight. Deep convection developed near the
surface boundary in the Coastal Plain and has moved east. Other
scattered storms are developing across in a region of local
convergence across northeast SC and south and east of KFAY.
Finally, additional convection across western NC will push east
into the western Piedmont over the next few hours. With time,
individual storms will tend to grow upscale and congeal into
multicells and cluster as they sweep east at 30 MPH. The best
chance of storms across the Triad will be from 3 to 8 PM, the
Triangle from 5 to 9 PM with multiple rounds of storms possible
across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, the first one from 3 to
6 PM and another later this evening.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect across the area through 11 pm.
MLCAPE values will range between 1000-2000 J/Kg this afternoon with tepid
mid level lapse rates becoming more favorable as the upper trough
approaches. These conditions combined with 0-6km bulk shear values of
35-45 kts will support some organized convection and perhaps a supercell
or two. The wind field is unidirectional with a tendency for straight
hodographs which could lead to splitting supercells. HREF guidance
shows fairly high neighborhood probabilities of elevated updraft
helicity and updraft strength this afternoon and evening. Both
large hail and strong straight line winds appear to be the main
threats, with a trend toward an increasing wind dominance as the
storms grow into clusters. While the low level wind profile is
not terribly favorable and LCL heights are high, the presence of
the E-W surface trough could provide enough localized shear to
support a remote tornado threat. The widespread and intense
convection will push east this evening and should largely be out
of the CWA by midnight. As the upper trough lags, an isolated
shower or storm is still possible overnight, especially in the
eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Lows will drop back into the
60s in most locations. -Blaes
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The threat for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue Saturday as a lobe of vorticity rotates southward through
central NC. While scattered showers will likely be ongoing Saturday
morning across the far northern counties, as the atmosphere
destabilizes after 15Z, anticipate a few thunderstorms to develop,
especially along and south of highway 64. While the atmosphere will
have sufficient instability to support/sustain thunderstorms, the
shear is anticipated to be much weaker than this afternoon. Thus,
strong/severe storms not expected at this time. Bulk of scattered
convection will dissipate with loss of heating.

A mixture of sun and clouds and a light nly low level wind will
prevent temperatures from becoming too hot. Anticipate enough
cloudiness in the morning to deter heating a bit, resulting in high
temperatures from the low-mid 80s north to the upper 80s south. If
sunshine is more abundant in the morning, then highs may end up 2-3
degrees warmer than forecast. Lows Saturday night in the low-mid 60s.

A sfc cold front will approach central NC from the west northwest
Sunday, and cross our region Sunday night. The front will approach
at a time when the atmosphere will become slightly unstable. Thus,
expect a threat for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm Sunday
afternoon-early Sunday evening. A westerly low level flow ahead of
the front will limit moisture advection and inhibit convective
development ahead of the front. Currently expect convective coverage
to be no worse than isolated to scattered, mostly north of highway
64. This same westerly flow will help to boost afternoon
temperatures well into the 80s with lower 90s probable across the
south. The frontal passage Sunday night will be noted by sfc winds
veering to a nwly direction. This flow will advect a notably cooler
and drier air mass into the region overnight. By early Monday,
expect temperatures to vary from around 60 NW to the mid-upper 60s
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

A drier, more stable air mass will settle over central NC Monday
into Tuesday as sfc high pressure builds into central NC from the
northwest. This will translate to temperatures near or slightly
below normal, with highs Monday and Tuesday ranging from near 80
north to the low-mid 80s south. Quite comfortable Monday night, with
overnight temperatures in the 50s, and 60 to 65  Tuesday night.

The area of high pressure will shift offshore by mid-week,
initiating a return flow regime into central NC. This will advect a
warm moist air mass back into our region. Aloft, a series of
perturbations will approach in the wly flow. The perturbations in
tandem with the increasingly moist atmosphere suggest a threat for
scattered showers/storms, beginning Wednesday, and persisting
through the remainder of the work week. Temperatures through the
period will average a couple of degrees above normal, generally in
the 85-90 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Severe thunderstorm watch number 300 is in effect until 03Z across
all of central NC.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across
central NC this afternoon and evening. Initially the greatest
convective coverage will be during the mid and late afternoon across
the Coastal Plain and Sandhills near a surface trough. Another area
of convection will develop across western NC and push into the
western Piedmont late this afternoon and then spread east into the
evening hours. The stronger convection will end from west to east
during the late evening hours although a lingering shower or storm
may persist across the Coastal Plain overnight through daybreak.
Brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions of VSBY and CIG are likely
in thunderstorms. Outside of the convection, mainly VFR conditions
are expected with multiple VFR clouds layers. Outside of convection,
winds will become west to northwest overnight tonight at 10kts or
less with mainly lightly northerly winds on Saturday.

Looking beyond 18Z Saturday... VFR conditions should return on
Saturday and continue into Saturday night as drier air moves into
the region. An upper level disturbance and cold front will move
across the area on Sunday and Sunday night producing a few showers
and perhaps a storm. Fair weather with VFR conditions are expected
for Monday and Tuesday before the next weather system approaches on
Wednesday. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
134 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-011745-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
134 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
538 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             4 S PRINCEVILLE         35.84N 77.53W
05/31/2019  E1.00 INCH       EDGECOMBE          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

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