Special Marine Warning 159, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight into early
Thursday before stalling nearby through the end of the week.
High pressure will build in from the west on Friday and persist
through the weekend. Another cold front will cross the region
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Strong to severe thunderstorms and the heavy rain had shifted
into central and southern New Jersey, and central and southern
Delaware at 6:30 PM. We have lowered the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch from areas to the northwest.

The heavy precipitation will work its way off the coast before
9:00 PM. Our coastal counties remain under a threat for damaging
winds and very heavy rainfall until that time.

Once the main area of showers and thunderstorms moves off the
coast, there may be some lingering showers followed by partial
clearing. We continue to expect patchy fog overnight.

A light west wind is expected overnight with low temperatures
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Although a cold front moves through overnight, dry conditions
are not completely forecast for Thursday. Another weak surface
trough develops across the east coast. Meanwhile, a couple of
short wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area, which
will help lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The
shower and thunderstorm activity will be less widespread than
Wednesday because the short wave is weaker and PW values will be
lower as well at around 1.25 inches.

Thursday will continue to be another hot day, but dewpoints
will be even lower than Wednesday, so heat index values will not
approach advisory levels anywhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday and Friday...The cold front drops through the region
and should be offshore by early Thursday but stalls near or just
to the south of the region. Showers and thunderstorms will exit
the region as the front pushes to the south. However, the air
behind the front is not particularly dry or cool and we will
remain warm and humid through Thursday.

A second cold front will cross the region Thursday night. Some
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage but
might be more scattered than organized across the area. This
front will have more dry and cooler air behind it than the
previous front and we should see humidity start to drop across
the region as the northwest flow becomes prominent. The only
hiccup to Friday being a great day across the entire region is
that the front may not drop south of the area quickly and that
will leave the chance for some showers and thunderstorms across
our southern areas, where they will remain in closer proximity
to the boundary.

Saturday and Sunday...Things clear out over the weekend as high
pressure builds across the eastern US which will allow us to
continue to dry out. With 850mb temps closer to 10-12C on
Saturday, expect high temperatures to be cooler than those of
late with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The air mass will
start to modify as we continue into Sunday and 850mb temps start
to edge upward but expect temperatures, and more importantly
the dew points, will remain quite comfortable and only
marginally warmer than Saturday.

Monday and Tuesday...Another period of unsettled weather looks
possible as the high shifts offshore by Monday. Low pressure
well to our north over Canada will drop a cold front into the
Mid-Atlantic sometime late Monday night or Tuesday. The models
differ with timing of the front but it looks likely we will see
some showers and thunderstorms through this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This evening...Conditions improving as showers and
thunderstorms make their way off the coast. Variable wind 10
knots or less.

Overnight...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are currently
expected to develop. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Thursday...Any low clouds and/or fog will dissipate and lift
through the morning hours, and a return to VFR is expected at
all sites. However, showers and thunderstorms are possible late
in the afternoon, especially for ABE and RDG.

Winds will be mostly out of the west to southwest during the
day Thursday around 5-10 knots.

Outlook...
Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible
in showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of KPHL. West to
northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for this
evening for the lower Delaware Bay and Atlantic coastal waters.
The Delaware Bay is forecast to end at 8 pm, and the Atlantic
waters at midnight. Winds should diminish through this evening,
and seas on the ocean should subside overnight.

Thursday...Conditions are expected to remain below advisory
levels through the day Thursday.

Outlook...
Friday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots on Thursday becoming west
to northwest around 5 to 10 knots Friday and Saturday. Seas
around 2 to 4 feet on Thursday and Friday dropping to around 1
to 3 feet Saturday.

RIP CURRENTS...
A moderate risk of rip currents continues this evening the long
period swell remains across the waters.

The moderate risk may continue into Thursday as the long period
swells will likely remain into the day Thursday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-
     104-106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ010-
     012>020-026-027.
DE...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431.

&&

Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Meola
Aviation...Robertson/Meola
Marine...Robertson/Meola

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105-082245-
Cecil-Kent MD-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania,
northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001-NJZ010-PAZ070-071-104-106-082245-
New Castle-Somerset-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-
Lower Bucks-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northern
New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002-003-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>023-082245-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Cumberland-Atlantic-
Cape May-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012-013-015>020-027-082245-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ014-026-082245-
Eastern Monmouth-Coastal Ocean-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currnets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-082245-
Delaware Beaches-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currnets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-082245-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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