Tornado Warning 106, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The August 27-28 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along
a cold front that will move southward through the evening hours.
Highest probability for convection is from KOKC/KOUN to the
northeast. Any thunderstorms that develop could be severe with
wind gusts over 50 knots.

Winds will shift from the south/southeast to the north/northeast
at all terminals as the front moves through tonight.

More widespread, post-frontal showers/storms are expected late
tonight into morning hours, once again in the vicinity of
KOKC/KOUN. Stratus with MVFR ceilings may develop late tonight as
well.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Very warm temperatures around 700mb (+15-18) will likely delay
and limit thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon/early evening,
despite a cold front moving into northern/western Oklahoma. In
fact, +15 @700mb at OUN this morning is a record for late August
according to the SPC sounding climatology page. With a fairly deep
frontal zone and some cooling over the northern half of Oklahoma,
scattered thunderstorms should form, especially across the
eastern half of the state. During the overnight and into Tuesday
morning, storms should continue to develop and build southward
with more coverage across the eastern 2/3rds of the area. During
this time, strong damaging winds and heavy rainfall totals will be
possible with the stronger cores. Hail is also possible.

Thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday will mainly be confined
to the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. How far
south is tricky and will be somewhat dependent on thunderstorm
coverage tonight into Tuesday morning. Another mid level trough
may enhance lift across mainly far southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may bring
much needed moisture to parts of southwest Oklahoma and northern
Texas.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, isolated showers and storms will be
possible with return flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase late Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches/moves
into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  79  62  83 /  50  30  30   0
Hobart OK         69  83  63  85 /  30  30  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  87  66  84 /  40  40  60  50
Gage OK           62  81  57  85 /  10  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     64  78  60  81 /  30  10  10   0
Durant OK         74  86  69  86 /  60  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-
     020-025>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018-023-024-035>038-044.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

11/10/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
531 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
531 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening into
the overnight hours. The risk area is generally near and east of
Cherokee, Camargo, Clinton and Weatherford, Hobart, and Lawton.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop across north-central and central Oklahoma during the
first half of the evening. By midnight, storms may increase in
coverage as a cold front moves southward over the region, with
storms most numerous east of Interstate-35.

Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts of 60 mph to
80 mph will accompany the strongest storms. Flash flooding will
also be possible, especially across central and southeast
Oklahoma.

.Spotter and Emergency Management Information Statement....
Storm spotters groups and emergency managers should monitor
the weather closely this afternoon and be ready for severe
weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain...
Thunderstorm chances will continue across northern Texas and the
southern half of Oklahoma through Wednesday morning. A few strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible near the Red River on
Tuesday. Flash flooding will also be possible, especially near
the Red River. Thunderstorm chances return again Friday through
Saturday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
649 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ008-013-270015-
Kay OK-Noble OK-
649 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Kay and northern
Noble Counties Until 715 PM CDT...

AT 648 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles northwest of Marland to 6 miles north of Perry, moving east
at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Morrison, Red Rock, Marland, Sooner Lake and Ceres.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 9693 3668 9696 3667 9706 3660 9704
      3659 9706 3659 9703 3658 9700 3660 9691
      3658 9689 3655 9690 3653 9699 3651 9703
      3633 9703 3633 9692 3626 9694 3638 9746
      3649 9743 3666 9725 3670 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 269DEG 29KT 3661 9719 3638 9733

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
746 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ017-018-024-270115-
Kingfisher OK-Canadian OK-Blaine OK-
746 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Kingfisher...
northwestern Canadian and east central Blaine Counties Until 815 PM
CDT...

AT 743 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Greenfield, moving southeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Kingfisher, northwestern Canadian and east central Blaine Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 9837 3586 9829 3578 9805 3566 9826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 308DEG 8KT 3578 9827

Mahale