Severe Thunderstorm Warning 839, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06z TAFs:

VCTS for OKC/OUN should suffice with tempo mentioned since they
are close to the 5nm radius, but generally improving conditions
are expected at those two sites. The most active TAF sites with
regards to thunderstorms will be LAW/SPS over the next several
hours. Otherwise, MVFR stratus may become more common, especially
at southern TAF sites, and could persist through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The August 27-28 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along
a cold front that will move southward through the evening hours.
Highest probability for convection is from KOKC/KOUN to the
northeast. Any thunderstorms that develop could be severe with
wind gusts over 50 knots.

Winds will shift from the south/southeast to the north/northeast
at all terminals as the front moves through tonight.

More widespread, post-frontal showers/storms are expected late
tonight into morning hours, once again in the vicinity of
KOKC/KOUN. Stratus with MVFR ceilings may develop late tonight as
well.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Very warm temperatures around 700mb (+15-18) will likely delay
and limit thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon/early evening,
despite a cold front moving into northern/western Oklahoma. In
fact, +15 @700mb at OUN this morning is a record for late August
according to the SPC sounding climatology page. With a fairly deep
frontal zone and some cooling over the northern half of Oklahoma,
scattered thunderstorms should form, especially across the
eastern half of the state. During the overnight and into Tuesday
morning, storms should continue to develop and build southward
with more coverage across the eastern 2/3rds of the area. During
this time, strong damaging winds and heavy rainfall totals will be
possible with the stronger cores. Hail is also possible.

Thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday will mainly be confined
to the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. How far
south is tricky and will be somewhat dependent on thunderstorm
coverage tonight into Tuesday morning. Another mid level trough
may enhance lift across mainly far southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may bring
much needed moisture to parts of southwest Oklahoma and northern
Texas.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, isolated showers and storms will be
possible with return flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase late Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches/moves
into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  62  83  67 /  30  30   0  20
Hobart OK         83  63  85  68 /  50  50  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  87  66  84  69 /  60  60  50  20
Gage OK           81  57  85  65 /  30  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     78  60  81  65 /  10  10   0  10
Durant OK         86  69  86  69 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

03/12/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
531 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
531 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening into
the overnight hours. The risk area is generally near and east of
Cherokee, Camargo, Clinton and Weatherford, Hobart, and Lawton.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop across north-central and central Oklahoma during the
first half of the evening. By midnight, storms may increase in
coverage as a cold front moves southward over the region, with
storms most numerous east of Interstate-35.

Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts of 60 mph to
80 mph will accompany the strongest storms. Flash flooding will
also be possible, especially across central and southeast
Oklahoma.

.Spotter and Emergency Management Information Statement....
Storm spotters groups and emergency managers should monitor
the weather closely this afternoon and be ready for severe
weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain...
Thunderstorm chances will continue across northern Texas and the
southern half of Oklahoma through Wednesday morning. A few strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible near the Red River on
Tuesday. Flash flooding will also be possible, especially near
the Red River. Thunderstorm chances return again Friday through
Saturday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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