Severe Thunderstorm Warning 828, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The August 27-28 00 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along
a cold front that will move southward through the evening hours.
Highest probability for convection is from KOKC/KOUN to the
northeast. Any thunderstorms that develop could be severe with
wind gusts over 50 knots.

Winds will shift from the south/southeast to the north/northeast
at all terminals as the front moves through tonight.

More widespread, post-frontal showers/storms are expected late
tonight into morning hours, once again in the vicinity of
KOKC/KOUN. Stratus with MVFR ceilings may develop late tonight as
well.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Very warm temperatures around 700mb (+15-18) will likely delay
and limit thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon/early evening,
despite a cold front moving into northern/western Oklahoma. In
fact, +15 @700mb at OUN this morning is a record for late August
according to the SPC sounding climatology page. With a fairly deep
frontal zone and some cooling over the northern half of Oklahoma,
scattered thunderstorms should form, especially across the
eastern half of the state. During the overnight and into Tuesday
morning, storms should continue to develop and build southward
with more coverage across the eastern 2/3rds of the area. During
this time, strong damaging winds and heavy rainfall totals will be
possible with the stronger cores. Hail is also possible.

Thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday will mainly be confined
to the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. How far
south is tricky and will be somewhat dependent on thunderstorm
coverage tonight into Tuesday morning. Another mid level trough
may enhance lift across mainly far southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may bring
much needed moisture to parts of southwest Oklahoma and northern
Texas.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, isolated showers and storms will be
possible with return flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase late Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches/moves
into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  79  62  83 /  50  30  30   0
Hobart OK         69  83  63  85 /  30  30  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  87  66  84 /  40  40  60  50
Gage OK           62  81  57  85 /  10  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     64  78  60  81 /  30  10  10   0
Durant OK         74  86  69  86 /  60  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-
     020-025>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018-023-024-035>038-044.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

11/10/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
531 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
531 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening into
the overnight hours. The risk area is generally near and east of
Cherokee, Camargo, Clinton and Weatherford, Hobart, and Lawton.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop across north-central and central Oklahoma during the
first half of the evening. By midnight, storms may increase in
coverage as a cold front moves southward over the region, with
storms most numerous east of Interstate-35.

Hail up to the size of golf balls and wind gusts of 60 mph to
80 mph will accompany the strongest storms. Flash flooding will
also be possible, especially across central and southeast
Oklahoma.

.Spotter and Emergency Management Information Statement....
Storm spotters groups and emergency managers should monitor
the weather closely this afternoon and be ready for severe
weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain...
Thunderstorm chances will continue across northern Texas and the
southern half of Oklahoma through Wednesday morning. A few strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible near the Red River on
Tuesday. Flash flooding will also be possible, especially near
the Red River. Thunderstorm chances return again Friday through
Saturday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

OKZ028-029-040-270545-
Garvin OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
1211 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Garvin...
southeastern Cleveland and south central McClain Counties Until 1245
AM CDT...

AT 1210 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest
of Wayne, moving southeast at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Purcell, Slaughterville, Lexington, Wayne, Paoli, Byars and Rosedale.

LAT...LON 3480 9713 3476 9733 3501 9750 3508 9734
      3495 9714 3493 9714 3494 9711 3486 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 306DEG 26KT 3495 9737

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

OKZ027-038>041-044>046-270600-
Grady OK-Cotton OK-Stephens OK-Carter OK-Garvin OK-Comanche OK-
Murray OK-Jefferson OK-
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Grady...northeastern
Cotton...Stephens...northwestern Carter...western Garvin...
southeastern Comanche...southwestern Murray and northwestern
Jefferson Counties Until 100 AM CDT...

AT 1224 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles east of Elmore City to 3 miles south of Duncan to near
Lawton, moving south at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

Locations impacted include...
Lawton, Duncan, Marlow, Walters, Comanche, Geronimo, Bray, Elmore
City, Velma, Medicine Park, Katie, Foster, Tatums, Loco, Ratliff
City, Graham, Corum, Waurika Lake, Pooleville and Antioch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3434 9850 3475 9857 3474 9796 3479 9730
      3438 9714 3424 9790
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 349DEG 21KT 3463 9734 3446 9795 3460 9841

Mahale

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             CALUMET                 35.60N 98.12W
08/27/2019  E1.00 INCH       CANADIAN           OK   PUBLIC

&&

RB