Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.AVIATION...
Main impact will be a line of storms currently sweeping eastward
across the state, including several severe storms. There is also
some indication that a secondary line may develop from central
Texas reaching up into southern Oklahoma later tonight. Toward the
end of the TAF period, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma.
Some scattered storms may develop along this front, however
uncertainty is high.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:

Minor adjustments were made to timing of convection, but overall
the previous TAFs were changed little. Primary convective hazards
will be damaging winds with storms that impact TAF sites,
particularly as upscale growth occurs later this evening and a
line of storms moves east overnight. Added PROB30 toward the end
of the forecast period for possibility of redevelopment tomorrow
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed over the central and
northern TX panhandle this afternoon, and now extend well south
into west TX. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to develop within WAA across northern OK, with isolated
activity elsewhere. Have been watching a MCV moving into western
north TX most of the day. Some minor enhancement can be seen in
visible under cirrus coverage there, and this feature could spawn
a few storms over the SW within the next couple of hours. These
could have a chance of becoming severe within better deep layer
shear. Otherwise, still expect widespread thunderstorm activity
later tonight as height falls spread east with upper trough. A few
discrete storms may develop ahead of a merging linear complex
before sunrise across northwestern OK. This currently seems like
the most likely area for tornadic supercells near an outflow
boundary and backed surface flow. QLCS tornadoes will also be
possible after sunset, especially over western OK. The complex
will near the I-35 corridor around 7-9Z, with stronger embedded
cells on its southwestern flank. Flooding will remain a concern
especially over northern OK where soils, creeks, and rivers are
bloated. It will remain busy through most of the night.

The severe threat tomorrow remains a bit questionable and will
depend greatly on the progression of the linear complex. If skies
can rapidly clear from west to east, expect at least a couple of
discrete cells to develop along a dryline over central OK, with
additional development along the cold front possible over northern
OK. Steep mid level lapse rates ahead of the dryline, sufficient
deep layer shear, and moderate low layer shear, all modes of
severe weather will be possible IF storms manage to redevelop. The
cold front will enter the I-44 corridor around 06Z Thu, and exit
south by sunrise. Much colder temps are still expected behind it
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Rain chances will return to the forecast late Fri into early Sun
as a southern stream mid to upper shortwave trough lifts over the
Southern Plains. Severe weather chances appear low during this
time, although a few strong to severe storms will be possible. A
closed low will follow this feature through early next week, but
it's unclear at this time whether or not severe weather will be
possible given weaker flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  62  45  65 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         50  61  43  63 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  55  67  47  66 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           43  55  38  63 /  20  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     50  58  43  65 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         61  72  48  68 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>020.

TX...None.
&&

30/14/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-090430-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1125 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe storms tonight across portions
of north central into central and southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas. The a slight risk surrounds the enhanced risk with
marginal covering the remainder of the area.

Location...
The enhanced risk area is east of a line from Crowel and Quanah
Texas to Hobart, to Watonga and Enid and west of a line from
Chandler to Pauls Valley Oklahoma and Archer City Texas.

Timing...
Through 500 AM Wednesday morning.

Impacts...
Hail to the size of golf balls.
Damaging winds up to 80 mph.
Tornadoes.
Flooding rainfall.

Discussion...
A couple of lines of severe storms across western Oklahoma will
continue to move east and northeast across much of the area
overnight. A few embedded supercells will also accompany these
lines and will have the potential to produce tornadoes as well as
large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially across western
Oklahoma. As we go through the early morning hours, damaging wind
gusts and very heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding of low lying areas will be possible through the overnight
hours. The highest risk of flooding will be along and north of
I-40.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and western north Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening along a fast moving cold front. Coverage is expected
to remain isolated to scattered...however...all severe weather
hazards will be possible.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms late Friday into
Saturday... but severe storms are not expected at this time.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday morning which may cause
flash flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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