Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.AVIATION...
Main impact will be a line of storms currently sweeping eastward
across the state, including several severe storms. There is also
some indication that a secondary line may develop from central
Texas reaching up into southern Oklahoma later tonight. Toward the
end of the TAF period, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma.
Some scattered storms may develop along this front, however
uncertainty is high.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:

Minor adjustments were made to timing of convection, but overall
the previous TAFs were changed little. Primary convective hazards
will be damaging winds with storms that impact TAF sites,
particularly as upscale growth occurs later this evening and a
line of storms moves east overnight. Added PROB30 toward the end
of the forecast period for possibility of redevelopment tomorrow
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed over the central and
northern TX panhandle this afternoon, and now extend well south
into west TX. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to develop within WAA across northern OK, with isolated
activity elsewhere. Have been watching a MCV moving into western
north TX most of the day. Some minor enhancement can be seen in
visible under cirrus coverage there, and this feature could spawn
a few storms over the SW within the next couple of hours. These
could have a chance of becoming severe within better deep layer
shear. Otherwise, still expect widespread thunderstorm activity
later tonight as height falls spread east with upper trough. A few
discrete storms may develop ahead of a merging linear complex
before sunrise across northwestern OK. This currently seems like
the most likely area for tornadic supercells near an outflow
boundary and backed surface flow. QLCS tornadoes will also be
possible after sunset, especially over western OK. The complex
will near the I-35 corridor around 7-9Z, with stronger embedded
cells on its southwestern flank. Flooding will remain a concern
especially over northern OK where soils, creeks, and rivers are
bloated. It will remain busy through most of the night.

The severe threat tomorrow remains a bit questionable and will
depend greatly on the progression of the linear complex. If skies
can rapidly clear from west to east, expect at least a couple of
discrete cells to develop along a dryline over central OK, with
additional development along the cold front possible over northern
OK. Steep mid level lapse rates ahead of the dryline, sufficient
deep layer shear, and moderate low layer shear, all modes of
severe weather will be possible IF storms manage to redevelop. The
cold front will enter the I-44 corridor around 06Z Thu, and exit
south by sunrise. Much colder temps are still expected behind it
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Rain chances will return to the forecast late Fri into early Sun
as a southern stream mid to upper shortwave trough lifts over the
Southern Plains. Severe weather chances appear low during this
time, although a few strong to severe storms will be possible. A
closed low will follow this feature through early next week, but
it's unclear at this time whether or not severe weather will be
possible given weaker flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  62  45  65 /  20  10   0   0
Hobart OK         50  61  43  63 /  10  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  55  67  47  66 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           43  55  38  63 /  20  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     50  58  43  65 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         61  72  48  68 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>020.

TX...None.
&&

30/14/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-090430-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1125 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe storms tonight across portions
of north central into central and southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas. The a slight risk surrounds the enhanced risk with
marginal covering the remainder of the area.

Location...
The enhanced risk area is east of a line from Crowel and Quanah
Texas to Hobart, to Watonga and Enid and west of a line from
Chandler to Pauls Valley Oklahoma and Archer City Texas.

Timing...
Through 500 AM Wednesday morning.

Impacts...
Hail to the size of golf balls.
Damaging winds up to 80 mph.
Tornadoes.
Flooding rainfall.

Discussion...
A couple of lines of severe storms across western Oklahoma will
continue to move east and northeast across much of the area
overnight. A few embedded supercells will also accompany these
lines and will have the potential to produce tornadoes as well as
large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially across western
Oklahoma. As we go through the early morning hours, damaging wind
gusts and very heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding of low lying areas will be possible through the overnight
hours. The highest risk of flooding will be along and north of
I-40.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and western north Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening along a fast moving cold front. Coverage is expected
to remain isolated to scattered...however...all severe weather
hazards will be possible.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms late Friday into
Saturday... but severe storms are not expected at this time.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday morning which may cause
flash flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S ALTUS               34.60N 99.33W
05/07/2019  M61 MPH          JACKSON            OK   MESONET

            MESONET MEASUREMENT

&&

ZWINK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

OKZ035-036-080530-
Kiowa OK-Jackson OK-
1203 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Kiowa and
northeastern Jackson Counties Until 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1200 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Friendship,
moving northeast at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3497 9917 3476 9882 3475 9883 3463 9908
      3464 9910 3463 9909 3459 9917 3465 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 217DEG 24KT 3467 9918

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

OKZ017>020-024>026-080545-
Payne OK-Kingfisher OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Canadian OK-Lincoln OK-
Blaine OK-
1220 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Payne...
Kingfisher...northwestern Oklahoma...Logan...Canadian...northwestern
Lincoln and southeastern Blaine Counties Until 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1219 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Cimarron City to 9 miles south of Loyal, moving east at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 9694 3569 9723 3550 9783 3542 9831
      3555 9831 3586 9848 3592 9806 3607 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 273DEG 23KT 3586 9763 3583 9815

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE RED ROCK          36.37N 97.13W
05/08/2019  M57 MPH          NOBLE              OK   MESONET

            MESONET MEASUREMENT

&&

ZWINK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW BESSIE            35.41N 99.05W
05/08/2019  M58 MPH          WASHITA            OK   MESONET

            MESONET MEASUREMENT

&&

ZWINK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COYLE                   35.95N 97.24W
05/08/2019                   LOGAN              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF LIMBS DOWN WITH ESTIMATED 60MPH WINDS.

&&

ZWINK