Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:

Minor adjustments were made to timing of convection, but overall
the previous TAFs were changed little. Primary convective hazards
will be damaging winds with storms that impact TAF sites,
particularly as upscale growth occurs later this evening and a
line of storms moves east overnight. Added PROB30 toward the end
of the forecast period for possibility of redevelopment tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed over the central and
northern TX panhandle this afternoon, and now extend well south
into west TX. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to develop within WAA across northern OK, with isolated
activity elsewhere. Have been watching a MCV moving into western
north TX most of the day. Some minor enhancement can be seen in
visible under cirrus coverage there, and this feature could spawn
a few storms over the SW within the next couple of hours. These
could have a chance of becoming severe within better deep layer
shear. Otherwise, still expect widespread thunderstorm activity
later tonight as height falls spread east with upper trough. A few
discrete storms may develop ahead of a merging linear complex
before sunrise across northwestern OK. This currently seems like
the most likely area for tornadic supercells near an outflow
boundary and backed surface flow. QLCS tornadoes will also be
possible after sunset, especially over western OK. The complex
will near the I-35 corridor around 7-9Z, with stronger embedded
cells on its southwestern flank. Flooding will remain a concern
especially over northern OK where soils, creeks, and rivers are
bloated. It will remain busy through most of the night.

The severe threat tomorrow remains a bit questionable and will
depend greatly on the progression of the linear complex. If skies
can rapidly clear from west to east, expect at least a couple of
discrete cells to develop along a dryline over central OK, with
additional development along the cold front possible over northern
OK. Steep mid level lapse rates ahead of the dryline, sufficient
deep layer shear, and moderate low layer shear, all modes of
severe weather will be possible IF storms manage to redevelop. The
cold front will enter the I-44 corridor around 06Z Thu, and exit
south by sunrise. Much colder temps are still expected behind it
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Rain chances will return to the forecast late Fri into early Sun
as a southern stream mid to upper shortwave trough lifts over the
Southern Plains. Severe weather chances appear low during this
time, although a few strong to severe storms will be possible. A
closed low will follow this feature through early next week, but
it's unclear at this time whether or not severe weather will be
possible given weaker flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  64  79  52 /  20 100  50  20
Hobart OK         77  63  80  50 /  30  90  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  80  67  83  55 /  20  90  50  20
Gage OK           75  57  78  43 /  70 100  20  20
Ponca City OK     79  64  77  50 /  60 100  50  50
Durant OK         82  66  79  61 /  20 100 100  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ004>020.

TX...None.
&&

26/12/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1214 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a moderate risk of severe storms late this afternoon and
evening across far western Oklahoma and western north Texas...
with an enhanced risk and slight risk farther east.

Location...
The moderate risk is generally west of a line from Gage to Sayre
Oklahoma to Goodlett Texas. This is surrounded by an enhanced risk
covering the western third of Oklahoma and nearby north Texas
counties... and a slight risk covering much of the central third
of Oklahoma and nearby north Texas counties.

Timing...
300 PM tonight through 500 AM Wednesday morning.

Impacts...
Hail to the size of baseballs.
Damaging winds up to 80 mph.
Tornadoes.
Flooding rainfall.

Discussion...
Storms are expected to develop along a dryline and outflow
boundary across the panhandles into northwest Oklahoma this
afternoon. Initially storms will be more isolated in nature and
will pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. Expectation
is for this to evolve into primarily a wind and heavy rain threat
as storms merge into a line and march eastward across central
Oklahoma into the evening and overnight hours.

A few thunderstorms will also be possible across southwestern and
central Oklahoma, and western north Texas before nightfall.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Flooding of low lying areas will be possible through the overnight
hours. The highest risk of flooding will be along and north of
I-40.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and western north Texas should prepare for severe
weather operations this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening along a fast moving cold front. Coverage is expected
to remain isolated to scattered...however...all severe weather
hazards will be possible.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms late Friday into
Saturday... but severe storms are not expected at this time.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday morning which may cause
flash flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ023-080415-
Caddo OK-
1045 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Caddo County Until 1115
PM CDT...

AT 1044 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest
of Fort Cobb, moving northeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Carnegie, Fort Cobb, Gracemont, Fort Cobb Reservoir and Albert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 9845 3506 9862 3534 9848 3521 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 212DEG 18KT 3506 9850

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1046 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ036-TXZ083-080415-
Jackson OK-Hardeman TX-
1046 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Jackson and east
central Hardeman Counties Until 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1044 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast
of Eldorado, moving northeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Olustee, Eldorado, Elmer and Duke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 9958 3463 9940 3452 9930 3446 9936
      3445 9938 3442 9940 3437 9944 3438 9946
      3439 9946 3440 9947 3434 9947 3426 9955
      3437 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 212DEG 18KT 3439 9960

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

OKZ015>017-023-080415-
Dewey OK-Caddo OK-Custer OK-Blaine OK-
1049 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Dewey...northwestern
Caddo...Custer and Blaine Counties Until 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1046 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Longdale to near Fay to near Clinton, moving east at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9904 3616 9891 3616 9821 3589 9821
      3571 9831 3546 9852 3547 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 271DEG 37KT 3615 9856 3581 9862 3550 9895

BRB