River Flood Warning 8, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

533 
WGUS86 KMTR 141931
FLSMTR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area, CA
1131 AM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Napa River near St Helena
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio 
  Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway 
  Napa River near Napa 
  Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville 

.Rain will continue this afternoon and will turn to showers this 
evening. This will result in continued rises on the Carmel River. 
Showers will continue tonight into Friday.


CAC053-151230-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0007.190214T1920Z-190215T1230Z/
/RDRC1.1.ER.190214T1622Z.190214T2100Z.190215T0030Z.NO/
1131 AM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
* Until late tonight
* At 10AM Thursday the stage was 8.9 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 9.1 feet by 1PM. 
* At 10.0 feet...South side of Highway 1 bridge access becomes 
  inundated and impassable.  Many low lying homes threatened along 
  the entire Carmel River.  Low lying homes near Camp Steffani 
  experience substantial flooding and homes near Schulte Road in 
  danger of flooding.  Homes surrounding the Carmel Lagoon area are 
  in danger of flooding.
* At 8.5 feet...Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles 
  del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to
  flood.  Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

CAC085-150704-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190215T0704Z/
/GUDC1.1.ER.190214T1204Z.190214T1245Z.190215T0104Z.UU/
1131 AM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
* From near this noon until this evening
* At 10AM Thursday the stage was 6.7 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by near this noon and continue 
  to rise to near 8.8 feet by near this noon.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by this evening.
* At 8.5 feet...Minor Flood Stage. River begins to overtop upstream 
  of Alma Avenue Bridge into the Elks Lodge. 
* At 7.5 feet...Monitor Stage. Additional flow from Canoas Creek 
  watershed or increased reservoir spills may bring river to flood 
  stage. 

&&

LAT...LON 3732 12188 3726 12183 3719 12184 3724 12195
      3727 12190 3732 12188       

$$

CAC055-142001-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190215T0302Z/
/SHEC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1131 AM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Napa River near St Helena
* Until this evening
* At 11AM Thursday the stage was 13.1 feet
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet


&&

LAT...LON 3860 12265 3865 12262 3849 12239 3843 12244
      3852 12253 3860 12265       

$$

CAC055-150906-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190215T0906Z/
/APCC1.1.ER.190214T2000Z.190214T2100Z.190214T2106Z.NO/
1131 AM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Napa River near Napa
* From near this noon until late tonight
* At 11AM Thursday the stage was 23.3 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by near this noon and continue 
  to rise to near 25.1 feet by 1PM.
* At 26.0 feet...Moderate flooding.  In the City of Napa, flow begins
  to leave the Napa River channel in the South Coombs area (north of 
  Imola Avenue) and the south oxbow (near Taylor Street). Crop losses
  and erosion damage become serious. Moderate flood damage in lower 
  parts of urban areas along the reach. Transportation in the Napa 
  Valley becoming difficult. The flood of 2/3/1998 measured 26.72 
  feet.
* At 25.0 feet...Flood Stage. Flooding of lowest parts of towns in 
  reach begins.  Inundation of lowest agricultural land in Napa 
  Valley.  Some secondary roads are inundated.  Moderate damage from 
  bank erosion and sediment deposition throughout the reach.
* At 24.0 feet...In the City of Napa, flow begins to leave the Napa 
  River channel at Riverpointe (north of Lincoln Avenue).
* At 22.0 feet...Monitor Stage. In the City of Napa, the Napa River 
  Dry Bypass is fully inundated and flow begins to cross McKinstry 
  Street.
* At 20.0 feet...Erosion of lowest agricultural areas along river 
  begins.


&&

LAT...LON 3845 12246 3849 12239 3832 12225 3810 12227
      3814 12239 3834 12237       

$$

CAC097-151930-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0006.190214T1920Z-000000T0000Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.190214T1905Z.190215T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1131 AM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville
* From near this noon until further notice
* At 11AM Thursday the stage was 32.0 feet
* Moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet
* The river has reached flood stage and continue
  to rise to near 36.0 feet by early tomorrow morning.
* At 37.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Road at River Road floods. In
  Guerneville River Road east of Guerneville floods. Mill Street and 
  5th Street flood. In Monte Rio River Blvd east of Monte Rio floods.
* At 36.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Park Resort and Mirabel 
  trailer park flood. In Guerneville Fern Road at HWY 116 floods.
* At 35.0 feet...Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower 
  Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest 
  sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In 
  Guerneville Brookside Resort begins to flood. More extensive 
  flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive
  floods.
* At 35.0 feet...Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower 
  Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest 
  sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In 
  Guerneville Sonoma West Inn begins to flood. More extensive 
  flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive
  floods.
* At 34.0 feet...In Guerneville flooding begins at Johnsons Resort, 
  Parkers Resort, Creekside Resort and Riverside Park. In Northwood 
  lower Redwood Drive begins to flood.
* At 33.0 feet...In Guerneville the intersection of HWY 116 and Drake
  Rd is closed. In Monte Rio Willow and Alder Streets flood. In 
  Forestville Mirabel trailer park begins to flood.
* At 32.5 feet...In Guerneville the intersecton of HWY 116 and Neeley
  Rd is closed. Mays Canyon Rd by the old rodeo grounds is closed.
* At 32.0 feet...Flood stage. Minor flooding. Lower Mill Street in 
  Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio are expected to 
  flood.
* At 29.0 feet...Monitor stage.


&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.








The next statement will be issued by 3 PM or 
sooner as conditions warrant.

&&

328 
WGUS86 KMTR 142358
FLSMTR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area, CA
358 PM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
  Napa River near Napa
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Carmel River at Robles Del Rio 
  Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville 

.Continued runoff from recent heavy rains is resulting in ongoing
river rises at some locations, while others are starting to recede.


CAC053-151152-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190215T1152Z/
/RDRC1.1.ER.190214T1622Z.190214T2300Z.190214T2352Z.NO/
358 PM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Carmel River at Robles Del Rio
* Until late tonight
* At 3PM Thursday the stage was 9.0 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet
* At 8.5 feet...Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles 
  del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to
  flood.  Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to 
  flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 12193 3652 12176 3640 12154 3637 12167
      3649 12179 3652 12193       

$$

CAC085-150028-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190215T0704Z/
/GUDC1.1.ER.190214T1204Z.190214T1245Z.190214T1342Z.UU/
358 PM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Guadalupe River above Alamaden Expressway
* At 3PM Thursday the stage was 7.2 feet
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet
* At 7.5 feet...Monitor Stage. Additional flow from Canoas Creek 
  watershed or increased reservoir spills may bring river to flood 
  stage. 

&&

LAT...LON 3732 12188 3726 12183 3719 12184 3724 12195
      3727 12190 3732 12188       

$$

CAC055-150028-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190215T0906Z/
/APCC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
358 PM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Napa River near Napa
* At 3PM Thursday the stage was 23.4 feet
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet
* At 24.0 feet...In the City of Napa, flow begins to leave the Napa 
  River channel at Riverpointe (north of Lincoln Avenue).
* At 22.0 feet...Monitor Stage. In the City of Napa, the Napa River 
  Dry Bypass is fully inundated and flow begins to cross McKinstry 
  Street.
* At 20.0 feet...Erosion of lowest agricultural areas along river 
  begins.


&&

LAT...LON 3845 12246 3849 12239 3832 12225 3810 12227
      3814 12239 3834 12237       

$$

CAC097-152357-
/O.CON.KMTR.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.190214T1903Z.190215T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
358 PM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Russian River at Johnsons Beach near Guerneville
* Until further notice
* At 3PM Thursday the stage was 33.3 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet
* The river will continue rising to near 35.8 feet by 1 AM.
* At 36.0 feet...In Forestville Mirabel Park Resort and Mirabel 
  trailer park flood. In Guerneville Fern Road at HWY 116 floods.
* At 35.0 feet...Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower 
  Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest 
  sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In 
  Guerneville Brookside Resort begins to flood. More extensive 
  flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive
  floods.
* At 35.0 feet...Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower 
  Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest 
  sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In 
  Guerneville Sonoma West Inn begins to flood. More extensive 
  flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive
  floods.
* At 34.0 feet...In Guerneville flooding begins at Johnsons Resort, 
  Parkers Resort, Creekside Resort and Riverside Park. In Northwood 
  lower Redwood Drive begins to flood.
* At 33.0 feet...In Guerneville the intersection of HWY 116 and Drake
  Rd is closed. In Monte Rio Willow and Alder Streets flood. In 
  Forestville Mirabel trailer park begins to flood.
* At 32.5 feet...In Guerneville the intersecton of HWY 116 and Neeley
  Rd is closed. Mays Canyon Rd by the old rodeo grounds is closed.
* At 32.0 feet...Flood stage. Minor flooding. Lower Mill Street in 
  Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio are expected to 
  flood.
* At 29.0 feet...Monitor stage.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 12314 3854 12300 3852 12287 3848 12284
      3847 12298 3841 12310       

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.








The next statement will be issued by 9 PM tonight or 
sooner as conditions warrant.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1045 PM PST Wed Feb 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of widespread rainfall is expected over
the region tonight into Thursday morning. Moderate to heavy
rainfall and strong winds are expected with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms. These conditions will result in an
increase in flooding region-wide along with downed trees and
isolated to scattered power outages. Showers will then linger into
the first half of the weekend along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 9:40 PM PST Wednesday...A very busy shift
tonight with rain and winds pelting the region as the much
anticipated atmospheric river event unfolds. KMUX Doppler radar
has remained very active this evening and into tonight with
moderate to heavy rain falling across the region with the heaviest
rain falling across the North Bay. Rain rates of 0.48"/hour were
observed over Venado in Sonoma County and 0.39"/hour was observed
over Marin County over the last few hours. Marin topped the list
with 3 hour Rain totals as much as 1" to 1.38". 24 hour totals
were also very impressive with Venado topping the Charts with over
8" of the last 24 hours. For a list rainfall total across the
region see the Public Information Statement (SFOPNSMTR). Numerous
Flood Warning, Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories and Flash
Flood Watches are in effect across the Warning Area. See
SFOFLWMTR, SFOFLSMTR and SFOFFAMTR for latest information.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are anticipate to continue
through tonight as the next wave of moisture moves into the
district. The latest run of the HRRR indicates precipitation will
remain focused over the North Bay for the next 6 hours.
Accumulation totals of anywhere from 1" to 2.5" are forecast for
the next 6 hours. The Weather Prediction Center has indicated the
North Bay can anticipate increased rain rates of 0.5" to 1" per
hour as the system off the coast intensifies. This along with
Precipitable water values off the coast of 1.2" and notable
instability will create and environment ripe for possible
convection and periods of heavy rain. It should be noted that
isolated thunderstorms are already beginning to develop off the
coast with our first lightning strike observed this past hour.

As the night progresses and this system moves inland over the
region the focus will shift southward with heavy rain forecast to
increase significantly after midnight tonight. For areas south of
the North Bay the heaviest rain is expected between 300 AM - 900
AM. Anticipate ongoing flooding concerns along the coastal ranges and
smaller creeks/streams in these regions.

In addition to the rain, strong and gusty winds persist along the
coast and over higher terrain. Peak wind gusts have been reported
in the 50 to 60 mph range with the highest peak winds gust of 72
mph over Los Gatos. The High Wind Warning remains in effect for
the coast and over higher elevations and the Wind Advisory remains
in effect for lower elevations and inland areas. Given the
saturated soils region-wide, the threat for downed trees and
isolated to scattered power outages will continue.

From previous discussion...Another up-tick in precipitation is
expected late tonight over the North Bay which will then spread
southward through Thursday morning. As the rainfall increases in
coverage and intensity, widespread flooding will likely become a
greater concerns. The greatest threat for flooding will be in the
North Bay and along the coastal ranges through midday Thursday. As
this next mid/upper level disturbance approaches the region
tonight into Thursday morning, the threat for isolated
thunderstorms will also exist. The greatest concern from this will
be strong gusty winds and brief downpours which will only
increase the threat for flooding. Another round of strong winds is
also expected during this timeframe again with the forecast
models showing indicating another shot of damaging winds over
areas such as the southern portion of the Monterey Peninsula.
Coastal flooding will also be an issue around the San Francisco
Bay Shoreline including portions of Marin County around high tide
Thursday morning (~6 AM PST) as a result of storm surge and
runoff.

Additional rainfall through Thursday morning will range from 2-4" in
the North Bay, 0.5-1.5" in the Bay Area, 0.5-1" in the South Bay and
Monterey Bay Region with coastal areas picking up 4-6" (locally up
to 8" in the highest coastal peaks). In wake of the passing system,
cooler and showery conditions will continue into Friday and
Saturday. Colder air advection will also lower snow levels to
between 3,000-4,000 feet resulting in light snow in the region's
higher peaks/ridges. Drier conditions develop by Saturday afternoon
with precipitation coming to an end by Sunday afternoon. Seasonably
cool conditions are likely early next week with overnight lows
dropping into the 30s and 40s.

Medium range models keep a cool, unsettled pattern over the region
for the middle of next week with the potential for some rain showers
and lower snow levels. At this time, not expecting widespread heavy
precipitation however. Will continue to monitor the forecast
solutions in the coming days and fine tune this portion of the
forecast period as we wrap up our current system.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10:45 PM PST Wednesday...Have added TSRA for
STS SFO and OAK as MOS Guidance has 70 percent chance of tstorms
through 12Z. Rain with MVFR cigs in the SFO Bay Area with areas of
IFR cigs in the North Bay. Rain turns to showers during the
daylight morning hours and decreases in the afternoon. Very gusty
conditions all the way through Thursday.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR rain. Thunderstorms possible through 12Z.
Winds southeasterly through Thursday morning then switching to
southwest. Gusts to 25 kt increasing to 30-40 kt after 10Z. An
Airport Weather Warning may be needed for thunder or winds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain shadowing will keep VFR conditions
but with gusty winds to 25-30 kt. Winds will pick up in the
Salinas Valley with gusts to 45 kt by dawn. Rain shadowing will
keep precip limited until the frontal boundary gets close after
10-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:13 PM PST Wednesday...Complex low pressure
system will move through the northern and central waters
overnight. Gale force winds out of the southeast will switch to
southwest by Thursday afternoon before decreasing late Thursday.
Occasional storm force gusts up to 60 kt is possible. Large wind
waves will create choppy sea conditions. A large northwest swell
from the mid-Pacific is forecast to arrive  on Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...High Wind Warning...CAZ006-505-507>509-511-512-517-518-529-
                530
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ006-505>509-511>513-516-517-528>530
             Wind Advisory...CAZ506-510-513-516-528
             Coastal Flood Advisory...CAZ006-505-506-508
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM
             GLW...SF Bay from 3 AM
             GLW...Mry Bay from 3 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1059 PM PST WED FEB 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 WSW MONTE RIO         38.45N 123.05W
02/13/2019                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FREEZEOUT RD/MOSCOW RD NOT BLOCKING ENTIRE
            LANE BUT GETTING CLOSE.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1111 PM PST WED FEB 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      4 W LEXINGTON HILLS     37.17N 122.05W
02/13/2019                   SANTA CRUZ         CA   PUBLIC

            NB BEAR CREEK RD AT BYNINGTON WINERY SMALL
            ROCKS CAME OFF CLIFF.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1140 PM PST WED FEB 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      SAUSALITO               37.86N 122.49W
02/13/2019                   MARIN              CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SB US-101 AT SPENCER AVE OFFRAMP SLIDE IS
            COVERING THE #4 LANE COMPLETELY.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1259 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     FLOOD            2 NW PIEDMONT           37.85N 122.26W
02/14/2019                   ALAMEDA            CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NB 880 ON BROADWAY OFFRAMP 6 INCHES OF WATER
            ACROSS WHOLE OFFRAMP.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
102 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     FLOOD            3 NNE CAMPBELL          37.32N 121.93W
02/14/2019                   SANTA CLARA        CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            I-280 SB AT MOORPARK AVE ROADWAY FLOODING
            SLOW LANE AND RHS.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
150 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 AM     FLOOD            1 NNW MONTE RIO         38.48N 123.02W
02/14/2019                   SONOMA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SR-116 JUST EAST OF DUNCAN RD MUD/DIRT/ROCK
            COVERING MUCH OF WB LANE.

&&

WP