River Flood Warning 6, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
420 PM PST Wed Feb 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...While there will be a brief lull in precipitation for
most urban areas this afternoon, another round of widespread
rainfall is expected over the region tonight into Thursday morning.
Moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected with the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. These conditions will result
in an increase in flooding region-wide along with downed trees and
isolated to scattered power outages. Showers will then linger into
the first half of the weekend along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:57 PM PST Wednesday...Recent radar and
satellite trends are showing the break lull in precipitation
across the region as anticipated. However, strong southwest flow
and deep moisture advection across the region is resulting in
steady rainfall along the coastal ranges and portions of the North
Bay. With rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.35" per hour with this
activity, look for ongoing flooding concerns along the coastal
ranges and smaller creeks/streams in these regions. Meanwhile,
aside from a few passing rain showers, drier conditions will
continue most valleys and urban areas outside of the North Bay
through the afternoon hours. In addition to the rainfall, strong
and gusty winds persist along the coast and in the region's higher
elevations. With this, a High Wind Warning for these areas and
Wind Advisory for lower elevations and inland areas will continue.
Given the saturated soils region-wide, the threat for downed
trees and isolated to scattered power outages will continue.

Another up-tick in precipitation is expected late tonight over the
North Bay which will then spread southward through Thursday morning.
As the rainfall increases in coverage and intensity, widespread
flooding will likely become a greater concerns. The greatest threat
for flooding will be in the North Bay and along the coastal ranges
through midday Thursday. As this next mid/upper level disturbance
approaches the region tonight into Thursday morning, the threat for
isolated thunderstorms will also exist. The greatest concern from
this will be strong gusty winds and brief downpours which will only
increase the threat for flooding. Another round of strong winds is
also expected during this timeframe again with the forecast models
showing indicating another shot of damaging winds over areas such as
the southern portion of the Monterey Peninsula. Coastal flooding
will also be an issue around the San Francisco Bay Shoreline
including portions of Marin County around high tide Thursday morning
(~6 AM PST) as a result of storm surge and runoff.

Additional rainfall through Thursday morning will range from 2-4" in
the North Bay, 0.5-1.5" in the Bay Area, 0.5-1" in the South Bay and
Monterey Bay Region with coastal areas picking up 4-6" (locally up
to 8" in the highest coastal peaks). In wake of the passing system,
cooler and showery conditions will continue into Friday and
Saturday. Colder air advection will also lower snow levels to
between 3,000-4,000 feet resulting in light snow in the region's
higher peaks/ridges. Drier conditions develop by Saturday afternoon
with precipitation coming to an end by Sunday afternoon. Seasonably
cool conditions are likely early next week with overnight lows
dropping into the 30s and 40s.

Medium range models keep a cool, unsettled pattern over the region
for the middle of next week with the potential for some rain showers
and lower snow levels. At this time, not expecting widespread heavy
precipitation however. Will continue to monitor the forecast
solutions in the coming days and fine tune this portion of the
forecast period as we wrap up our current system.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:20 PM PST Wednesday...MVFR cigs in the SFO
Bay Area with areas of lower cigs in the North Bay. Currently
there is a short break in the rain but another frontal system will
be arriving tonight. Focus of the rain is on the North Bay but light
to moderate rain can be expected in the SFO and MRY Bay Area late
tonight and Thursday morning. Rain turns to showers during the
daylight morning hours. Very gusty conditions all the way through
Thursday with the strongest winds on Thursday.

Vicinity of KSFO...Currently a break in the rain but it will
return after 04Z. Winds continue southeasterly through Thursday
morning. Gusts to 25 kt increasing to 30-40 kt after 10Z. An
Airport Weather Warning may be needed tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain shadowing will keep VFR conditions
but with gusty winds to 25-30 kt. Winds will pick up again after
04Z as another system approaches but rain shadowing will keep
precip limited until the frontal boundary gets close late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 03:58 PM PST Wednesday...Dangerous conditions will
persist over the coastal waters with  widespread gale force winds
and occasional storm force gusts up to 60 kt. These strong winds
will result in steep wind wave, fresh  swell and a chaotic sea
state. Winds will gradually diminish  Thursday afternoon.
Northwest swells will continue to impact the  waters through the
forecast period with a large northwest swell  arriving Thursday
into Friday.. Mariners are urged to use extra  caution at least
through Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...High Wind Warning...CAZ006-505-507>509-511-512-517-518-529-
                530
             Flash Flood Watch...CAZ006-505>509-511>513-516-517-528>530
             Wind Advisory...CAZ506-510-513-516-528
             Coastal Flood Advisory...CAZ006-505-506-508
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM
             GLW...SF Bay from 3 AM
             GLW...Mry Bay from 3 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: MM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
525 PM PST WED FEB 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     FLOOD            1 N DEER PARK           38.54N 122.47W
02/13/2019                   NAPA               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POT HOLE / RT LANE / ASPHALT IS NOW FLOATING
            IN FLOODED AREAS.

&&

WP