Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
115 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Short term concern is severe convective threat Tonight and
Wednesday night along with the heavy rain/flash flood threat.

Sky finally broke out to attain forecast highs around 80 over much
of the southern CWA. Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds
this evening from the southwest along with increasing rain/thunder
threat into the southwest area before 06z in the southwest and
working east into west central WI after 09z. Various HIRES models
continued their trend of developing convection over South
Dakota/Nebraska region and shift east ahead of the propagating
trough and development of low level jet into southwest MN late. High
PW's to 1.75(2 to 3 standard deviations above normal) into southern
MN by 12z Wed should provide some decent rainfall rates. The current
QPF forecast has 1 to 2.5 inches into a small part of south central
MN through 18z Wed. Contemplated flash flood watch for the southern 2
tier of counties along I-90 but believe convective system that does
develop over South Dakota will be progressive through early Wed
morning. Latest HRRR model trend does develop linear complex as it
moves into southern MN late. Will need to monitor for severe
convective wind threat per SPC Day1 outlook.

System moves east during the early morning and should weaken as it
moves east. Then convective setup for Wednesday afternoon and night
will depend on overall movement of surface warm front. At the moment
the front is forecast to remain over the southern third of the area
through the afternoon. At least lower 80s expected into south
central MN with 70s into southern MN with some 60s over the far
northern CWA. Should see convection fire by late afternoon
along/north of the front with all modes of severe weather possible
along warm front and at least a wind threat with the propagation
of the cold front. Heavy rainfall will remain a threat with
another 1 to 2 inches possible over eastern central MN into a
portion of west central WI. Flash flood threat may lift into this
region if warm front lifts fast enough north into early Wed
evening. Will have to monitor model trends for possible flood
headline this period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

We will not be out of the woods with the threat for severe weather
and heavy rainfall on Thursday. At daybreak Thursday, the
mid/upper trough is progged to be over the western Dakotas, with
the surface low entering southwestern Minnesota. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to be be ongoing Thursday morning as overrunning
continues. We really don't look to see a break until the cold
front passes Thursday night. Given PWATS still nearing 2 inches,
heavy rainfall will remain a concern. The severe weather threat
will be contingent on where boundaries are located and how much
instability we can tap into.

Showers look to be possible on Friday in the cyclonic flow behind
the departing trough, primarily over central MN/WI. Zonal flow
then develops for the weekend, which will mean an overall trend
to drier weather but we can't rule out a hit or miss shower.

A deepening trough over the western CONUS induces mid-level
ridging over the north central CONUS early next week. This will
mean a return to above normal temperatures with highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s looking likely for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Incoming storms are a couple hours ahead of most CAMs, but
existing TAFs leaned fast, so we're okay there. Thunder looks to
get about as far north as MSP/RNH/EAU, but heaviest weather will
remain across southern MN. Behind these storms it's moist east
flow north of a warm front (which looks to remain down along the
I-90 corridor), so we should see rather expansive IFR/low MVFR
stratus form in the morning. Confidence lower in when storms fire
in the afternoon/evening, but with upper ridging overhead, agree
with the idea of the NAMnest/HRRR that the next round of storms
really gets going after 3z Thursday, with only scattered
convection before that.

KMSP...Storms look to move into the MSP airspace between 8z and 9z
and will likely see rain with occasional thunder out to between
12z and 14z. Being north of the warm front, we're likely look at
IFR/MVFR cigs much of today. Scattered storms possible after 22z
this afternoon, but next show looks to really get cranking around
6z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR. TSRA likely. Wind SE at 10 bcmg SW at 20 kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR possible. Wind W at 20G30 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA late. Wind S at 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ082-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
913 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
120215-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
913 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely late tonight over southwest into south
central Minnesota. Heavy rainfall is the primary threat, but
damaging wind is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Thursday evening. Heavy rain and flooding is the primary threat
with this storms, especially in southern Minnesota. Severe
weather is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed and rainfall reports are
appreciated.

jrb

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
124 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

MNZ073-074-110715-
Brown-Redwood-
124 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN REDWOOD AND BROWN
COUNTIES...

At 124 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Jeffers, or 15
miles northwest of Windom, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Ulm, Sleepy Eye, Springfield, Morgan, Lamberton, Wabasso,
Comfrey, Sanborn, Clements, Revere, Evan and Wanda.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 56 and 101.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 52 and 73.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in The Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4419 9510 4420 9512 4420 9537 4453 9519
      4433 9448 4411 9489 4411 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0624Z 223DEG 51KT 4407 9526

JLT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
134 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

MNZ075-083-110715-
Blue Earth-Nicollet-
134 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 134 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Vernon Center,
or 16 miles southwest of Mankato, moving north at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mankato, North Mankato, Lake Crystal, Eagle Lake, Nicollet, Good
Thunder, Amboy, Vernon Center, Garden City, Judson, Oshawa and
Skyline.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 114 and 138.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 29 and 59, and near mile
marker 61.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4394 9437 4402 9437 4436 9427 4427 9401
      4426 9403 4425 9401 4424 9402 4424 9391
      4421 9382 4388 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 200DEG 38KT 4399 9423

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
209 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

MNC013-103-110915-
Blue Earth-Nicollet-
209 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Blue Earth...Nicollet...

* Until 415 AM CDT.

* At 208 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Mankato, North Mankato, Lake Crystal, Judson, Skyline and Mankato
  Airport.

LAT...LON 4424 9388 4406 9389 4406 9420 4424 9421

JLT