Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

378 
WGUS63 KMPX 110957
FFAMPX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
457 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019


MNZ082-091>093-111100-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-190911T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Watonwan-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of St James, Fairmont, Blue Earth, 
and Albert Lea
457 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Minnesota
has been cancelled. 

The heavy rain threat for early this morning. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
735 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Short term concern is severe convective threat Tonight and
Wednesday night along with the heavy rain/flash flood threat.

Sky finally broke out to attain forecast highs around 80 over much
of the southern CWA. Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds
this evening from the southwest along with increasing rain/thunder
threat into the southwest area before 06z in the southwest and
working east into west central WI after 09z. Various HIRES models
continued their trend of developing convection over South
Dakota/Nebraska region and shift east ahead of the propagating
trough and development of low level jet into southwest MN late. High
PW's to 1.75(2 to 3 standard deviations above normal) into southern
MN by 12z Wed should provide some decent rainfall rates. The current
QPF forecast has 1 to 2.5 inches into a small part of south central
MN through 18z Wed. Contemplated flash flood watch for the southern 2
tier of counties along I-90 but believe convective system that does
develop over South Dakota will be progressive through early Wed
morning. Latest HRRR model trend does develop linear complex as it
moves into southern MN late. Will need to monitor for severe
convective wind threat per SPC Day1 outlook.

System moves east during the early morning and should weaken as it
moves east. Then convective setup for Wednesday afternoon and night
will depend on overall movement of surface warm front. At the moment
the front is forecast to remain over the southern third of the area
through the afternoon. At least lower 80s expected into south
central MN with 70s into southern MN with some 60s over the far
northern CWA. Should see convection fire by late afternoon
along/north of the front with all modes of severe weather possible
along warm front and at least a wind threat with the propagation
of the cold front. Heavy rainfall will remain a threat with
another 1 to 2 inches possible over eastern central MN into a
portion of west central WI. Flash flood threat may lift into this
region if warm front lifts fast enough north into early Wed
evening. Will have to monitor model trends for possible flood
headline this period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

We will not be out of the woods with the threat for severe weather
and heavy rainfall on Thursday. At daybreak Thursday, the
mid/upper trough is progged to be over the western Dakotas, with
the surface low entering southwestern Minnesota. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to be be ongoing Thursday morning as overrunning
continues. We really don't look to see a break until the cold
front passes Thursday night. Given PWATS still nearing 2 inches,
heavy rainfall will remain a concern. The severe weather threat
will be contingent on where boundaries are located and how much
instability we can tap into.

Showers look to be possible on Friday in the cyclonic flow behind
the departing trough, primarily over central MN/WI. Zonal flow
then develops for the weekend, which will mean an overall trend
to drier weather but we can't rule out a hit or miss shower.

A deepening trough over the western CONUS induces mid-level
ridging over the north central CONUS early next week. This will
mean a return to above normal temperatures with highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s looking likely for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

VFR conditions this evening but thunderstorms across South Dakota
will move eastward overnight and should affect KRWF and KMKT, but
could reach as far north as KMSP, KRNH, and KEAU. Expect low
clouds to continue for Wednesday, and could see additional showers
and thunderstorms.

KMSP...

VFR conditions this evening but thunderstorms across South Dakota
will move eastward overnight and could affect KMSP for the morning
rush. The model guidance has been a bit slow, so sped up the
timing of the thunder. Expect low clouds to persist for
Wednesday, and could see additional showers and thunderstorms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR with IFR/TSRA possible. Wind SE at 10 bcmg SW at 20
kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR possible. Wind W at 20G30 kts.
SAT...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind S at 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
111730-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely late tonight over southwest into south
central Minnesota. Heavy rainfall is the primary threat, but
isolated severe storms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Thursday evening. Heavy rain and flooding is the primary threat
with this storms, especially in southern Minnesota. Severe
weather is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.