Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
317 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Two separate mechanisms for producing thunderstorms are present this
afternoon across the Upper Midwest. In addition, heat indices have
been hovering from 95-100 degrees generally, with a few sites
eclipsing 100 with locally higher dew point readings.

The first mechanism for storms is the MCV moving east across far
southeastern MN with thunderstorms to the north of the MCV
(similarly to yesterday) that are expected to remain sub-severe.
Instability and shear are limited there so expect main issues to be
lightning, small hail, heavy downpours mainly through about 5PM.

The severe weather threat this afternoon and evening is tied to the
approaching frontal boundary to our northwest. The uncertainty that
remains is just how far south will convection break through the cap
along the front. Latest thinking is storms will affect central MN,
north of St. Cloud this afternoon, but expansion southward is not
likely during the afternoon. Hence, expect most of our local
thunderstorm development after 00Z once the atmosphere begins to
cool. Storms will likely move southeast but hi-res CAMs continue to
show discrepancies in coverage. MLCAPE values of 2,500-3,500 J/kg
with near 30 knots of effective shear will be ample to produce large
hail and severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch was issued along and north of a line from near
Alexandria through St. Cloud and Ladysmith, WI. To the south of this
area, the storm threat would occur later so plenty of time to
monitor trends and could expand the watch or issue a new watch if
needed. At this point though, think it may evolve into more of a
heavy rainfall threat by that time after dark. Could see isolated 2-
4" of rainfall given slow moving thunderstorm potential tonight.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow as the
aforementioned frontal boundary essentially stalls out across the
area. Tomorrow doesn't look quite as hot as today and severe storm
potential marginally less, but as per usual with summertime
convection with a moist and unstable airmass, uncertainty in timing
and intensity of storms is somewhat high at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Longer term concerns remain heat/humidity and timing of convection
through the remainder of the week.

At the beginning of the period, models indicate a rather vigorous
short wave trough moving through the Dakotas/Minnesota region
Wednesday/Wednesday night. This should bring likely chance PoPs
over the northern and eastern portion of the CWA during this
period. Severe weather threat will remain depending on overall
heating/destabilization. Along with the severe weather threat,
heavy rainfall will also be possible with NAEFS PW's indicating
2-3 standard deviations above normal.

Model trends continue to indicate heat/humidity concerns
returning Thursday or Friday after this initial wave. Both the
ECMWF and GFS bring the nearly stationary frontal boundary into
about the southern third of Minnesota. South of the front we
should see very warm air with the ECMWF particularly warm. North
of the front, we may be susceptible to periodic strong convection.
This will likely continue into Saturday before a stronger
trough/cold front moves across the region Sunday/Monday. At the
moment, we have trended high temperatures more to the 75
percentile of the member envelope into Saturday, which was
generally a degree or two warmer than NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

For the remainder of the afternoon, gusty SSW winds will continue
along with a VFR scattered/broken cu deck. An MCV is moving east
across southern MN and is beginning to produce a few showers that
may become thunderstorms over the next hour or two. Hence, added
VCTS at KEAU from 19-20Z. That activity associated with the MCV
will move east of the area by mid afternoon. Later, additional
thunderstorm development is expected along an approaching frontal
boundary from the Dakotas. Uncertainty is rather high again,
similarly to yesterday given timing discrepancies and model
differences. Overall, expecting scattered convection along the
front, the main question being how far south the storms will
extend. Fog development is possible overnight, especially areas
that see measurable rain.

KMSP...Best chance for thunderstorms this evening after 00Z or
01Z. Could see thunderstorms again tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...Mainly VFR. TSRA likely late. Winds S 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Possible TSRA late. Winds light and variable.
Fri...VFR. Winds light and variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ060>063-
     068>070.

&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
161745-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today, mainly late
this afternoon and this evening. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary threats, along with locally excessive
rainfall and lightning. Temperatures near 90 and humid conditions
will lead to heat indices of 95 to 100 in the Twin Cities metro
area, which could lead to heat related illness, particularly in
sensitive groups and those participating in strenuous outdoor
activities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat and humidity, along with periodic thunderstorm chances, will
persist through Wednesday. A few severe thunderstorms are
possible over that time period. Any storms that develop will also
be capable of producing locally excessive rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

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