Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Capping inversion has held back convection across much of the
area, with stronger storms remaining mainly to our north. In the
last 30-60 min, the storms near Little Falls have been able to
become stronger though. The MCV is plainly shown on radar moving
due east from Stevens through Kandiyohi counties. Our 00Z
radiosonde release sampled the cap in place centered near 750mb,
and although it doesn't appear all that strong, it has proven to
be enough to limit strong convection to the north where the the
700-800mb layer is slightly cooler. Main update to the forecast
was to delay progression of the thunderstorms southeast this
evening. However, with the MCV still moving across the area, an
erosion of the cap could still lead to quickly developing
strong thunderstorms out ahead of it. Overall expectation is for
additional convective initiation across central MN this evening
for those storms to eventually drop south after dark. Will leave
the Watch in place as severe thunderstorm development certainly
remains a possibility this evening.

Lastly, updated the 00Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Main issue in the short term is for severe weather and heavy
rainfall potential this afternoon through tonight.

As of early afternoon, a distinct MCV was evident on satellite
imagery near Aberdeen, SD and is the key feature of interest for
thunderstorm potential through the remainder of the day. The MCV
will continue eastward across northeast South Dakota through the
afternoon, moving across west central MN toward St. Cloud by around
sunset or just after. Destabilization has been occurring through the
afternoon east of the MCV with the latest analysis indicating 2,500-
3,500 J/kg MLCAPE. Across western MN, temperatures have warmed to
around 90 degrees with ample moisture given surface dew points in
the low 70s. Effective layer shear of 30-40 knots along with the
strong instability will certainly be capable of producing severe
thunderstorms including supercells. There is however, a cap in place
across portions of southern MN. Overall, we expect the MCV to be the
impetus for new thunderstorm development over the next several hours
and as the MCV moves into a more deeply unstable airmass, expect the
I-94 corridor in western and central MN to be most at risk for
severe weather. The main risk with storms this afternoon and evening
will be severe wind gusts and large hail. SR helicity is somewhat
limited given fairly limited speed sheer, despite a veering profile
in the low levels. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out,
however.

Later this evening, expect ongoing storms to turn ESE feeding
into the better instability to the south as the cap
weakens/begins to erode. This could lead to strong thunderstorms
turning toward the Twin Cities metro this evening, and eventually
western WI. PWAT values will increase to around 2" as moisture
pools across the area, and the low level jet will increase to
30-40 knots overnight. Hence, additional thunderstorm development
will remain possible overnight, and heavy rainfall will be the
primary threat by then.

Monday will be another hot and humid day, with highs in the low 90s
and dew points in the mid 70s most likely. There could be morning
cloud cover left behind from overnight convection, but generally
expect partly cloudy skies to develop through the day. Continued the
heat advisory for the metro, and expansion could be possible but due
to uncertainty with overnight storms and cloud cover, decided to
keep the advisory as is for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Warm and humid weather looks to prevail during the long term
period, but given model trends toward a weaker ridge and more
zonal flow over the north central CONUS, it looks less likely to
be oppressively hot. This change will, however, make for active
weather in terms of shower and thunderstorm chances.

Have kept 20-30% precip chances on Tuesday with the baroclinic
zone situated over the area. Higher pops look to be warranted on
Wednesday into Thursday with a cold front passing across the area
and additional support supplied by jet streak upper level
divergence. After that, confidence decreases given the difficulty
with timing weak shortwaves in the fast westerly flow, so periodic
15-20% POPS can't be ruled out.

Temperatures will mostly range from the mid to upper 80s for highs
and the mid 60s to lower 70s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Updated the TAFs with the main issue being thunderstorms this
evening and overnight. Generally delayed the arrival of
thunderstorms for most TAF sites. Uncertainty remains high, so
opted for VCTS at a few sites as opposed to TSRA due to that
uncertainty for now.

KMSP...Included VCTS starting at 0130 to account for approaching
showers from the west associated with the approaching MCV. Thunder
has been limited to the west, but a few strikes have been observed
and strong instability is certainly available. So, VCTS is
possible this evening, before the better chance for more
widespread thunderstorms overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...Mainly VFR. Possible TSRA. Winds light and variable.
Wed...Mainly VFR. Possible TSRA. Winds S 5 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Possible TSRA. Winds light and variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for MNZ060>063-068>070.

&&

UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1106 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
151615-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1106 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon
through tonight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary severe weather threats. Locally excessive rainfall is also
possible. A heat advisory remains in effect for the Twin Cities
metro area as heat indices are expected to reach 95 to 100
degrees this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. The Twin Cities
metro area will remain quite warm at night as well, with low
temperatures bottoming out in the mid 70s with high humidity,
providing little relief from the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Heat and humidity, along with periodic thunderstorm chances, will
persist through Wednesday. A few severe thunderstorms are
possible over that time period. Any storms that develop will also
be capable of producing locally excessive rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RANDALL                 46.09N 94.50W
07/14/2019  M1.50 INCH       MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
            6-6:30PM.

&&

TDH

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