Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

A weak short wave, anomalous high precipitable water values, ample
instability, and training of storms, led to very heavy rainfall
across portions of southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin
this afternoon. The axis of very heavy rainfall was from Mankato to
New Prague, and another from Faribault to Hastings, and River Falls
Wisconsin. These areas received anywhere from 2 to locally 5 inches
of rain this morning. A mud slide occurred near St. Peter on highway
169, with other areas that had road closures due to the excessive
rainfall.

Although the main area of very heavy rainfall that moved across the
region earlier today has exited, another round of thunderstorms will
likely develop along the instability axis that had already redevelop
convection near the surface low in south central Minnesota. The best
instability will remain south of the Iowa border. Our region has
stabilized some from previous convection, but there remains enough
elevated instability to generate more heavy rainfall in south
central, southeast Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin
through the late afternoon. Any severe weather should stay south of
the Iowa border. Only a few small hail stones will be possible.

Once the surface low exits our region, there still remains the upper
level short wave that was moving across the Dakotas this afternoon,
and an area of disturbed weather across south central Canada.
Therefore, a break in the precipitation is expected later tonight,
but as the two areas of disturbed weather move southeast over the
Upper Midwest, instability showers will likely develop Thursday.
However, it will be very disorganized, and mainly diurnally driven.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with
daytime highs on Thursday in the 40s, and lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Cooler and drier air is expected Friday night as high pressure
begins to build-in. Temperatures on Friday are expected to be
seasonable with high temperatures warming into the upper 50s and
low 60s under mostly sunny skies. High pressure will shift
southeastward on Friday night, allowing for southwest flow to
return. Warm air advection ahead of a mid-level trough will allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday.

The trough and surface cold front will approach from the northwest
Saturday afternoon and cross through MN and western WI Saturday
night. Cooler temperatures will follow this system with temperatures
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday is expected to be dry under
high pressure, but then forecast uncertainty increases for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Deterministic models indicate the potential for a mid-
level shortwave trough developing over the Northern Plains on
Tuesday. The GFS has greater forcing with a deep upper level trough
over the Western CONUS while the ECMWF keeps weak ridging over the
Western CONUS. Due to much uncertainty, have continued to keep
blended guidance in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

A wide area of MVFR cigs/vsbys with embedded IFR cigs/vsbys in
SHRA/TSRA, will continue for most of central/southern Minnesota,
and adjacent west central Wisconsin through the afternoon.
Confidence is high that TSRA will remain along and south of a line
from KRWF-KMSP-KRNH through 00z, with only isolated TSRA north of
this boundary. Otherwise, once the surface low moves from
northwest Iowa early this afternoon, to west central, and northern
Wisconsin by this evening, winds will shift from the
east/northeast, to the northwest. Gusty winds will occur through
tonight. Confidence remains low on when MVFR cigs develop Thursday
morning.

KMSP...

A broad area of moderate to heavy rainfall, with embedded
thunderstorms will continue through 20-21z, with only an isolated
storm between 21-00z. However, confidence is low for the chance
of thunderstorms decreases during the afternoon based on the
location of the surface low. Otherwise, IFR cigs will develop,
with a slow improvement Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Fri...VFR. Wind light/variable.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 10G20-30 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TSRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1136 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181645-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1136 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Occasional thunderstorms will occur along and south of the
Minnesota River Valley through the afternoon, and taper off this
evening. Heavy rainfall, localized flooding and small hail will
be possible. There remains a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms south of the Minnesota River Valley, this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Flooding continues across many area rivers. A combination of
recent snowmelt and anticipated rainfall will keep rivers running
high, with additional rises in river levels expected across
portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Due to the isolated nature of the severe weather, skywarn
spotter activation will not be needed.

jlt

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
405 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW RIVER FALLS       44.84N 92.64W
04/17/2019  M4.33 INCH       PIERCE             WI   COCORAHS

&&

AMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BELLE PLAINE            44.62N 93.77W
04/17/2019  M2.60 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
438 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RIVER FALLS             44.85N 92.61W
04/17/2019  M4.36 INCH       PIERCE             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BPH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

MNC037-049-131-163-WIC093-109-180000-
Dakota-Goodhue-Rice-Washington-Pierce-St. Croix-
535 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Minor flooding will occur in the following counties...

Dakota...Goodhue...Rice...Washington...Pierce...St. Croix...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 529 PM CDT, another round of light to moderate rainfall was
  moving through the area, resulting in localized minor flooding.
  Three to four inches of rain fell in a band from northern Rice to
  St. Croix counties earlier this afternoon, with additional
  rainfall amounts of a quarter to half an inch expected to
  result in minor flooding.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Faribault, Northfield, River Falls, Cottage Grove, Hastings,
  Rosemount, Farmington, Hudson, Prescott, Cannon Falls, Lonsdale and
  Afton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4421 9352 4446 9353 4456 9325 4482 9292
      4503 9260 4496 9235 4477 9254 4437 9314

ETA