Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
802 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...IFR to MVFR cigs and visibilities through about
30.19z followed mostly MVFR cigs through about 31.06z, then IFR
to MVFR cigs and visibilities through 31.12z. Lower cigs and
visibilities occur north of a warm front early today with
conditions improving this afternoon and evening as the warm front
moves north of all terminal sites in southwest AL and NWFL.
Ceilings lower again overnight and early Thu morning with patchy
fog near the surface. Winds will be south around 10 knots with
higher gusts today and this evening shifting southwest late
tonight and early thu morning. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...A warm front that has
been just offshore overnight will be moving onshore this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to ride up and over this
boundary as it lifts inland today in response to a large, positively
tilted mid level trough moving out of the four corners region to
the central plains. As the storms are interacting with the warm
frontal boundary there have been a few low topped storms showing
some rotation this morning, and expect that this trend to continue
along the boundary today. With the warm front lifting north, and
a cold front off to our west, a more unstable airmass is expected
over our area with MLCAPE of 500-900 J/KG or so across most of the
area, but possibly as high as 1200 J/KG over the western Florida
panhandle this morning. This marginal CAPE due to ample low level
moisture and veering winds with height suggest some storms could
produce locally damaging winds, and perhaps a brief, weak tornado
(especially in the vicinity of the warm frontal boundary).
However, lapse rates generally below 6 C/KM will hamper overall
severe potential. SPC does have most of our area outlooked with a
Marginal risk of severe weather today, but again this threat is
relatively low. There is also a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall across our area today and tonight, and localized heavy
rainfall and some nuisance type flooding in low lying and flood
prone areas is possible. The cold front mentioned earlier will
move east toward the forecast area this evening and be on the
doorstep of our MS counties by around midnight and then around the
I-65 corridor by around sunrise Thursday morning. Periods of rain,
showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area until this
cold front moves east of the area. Highs today remaining in the
mid and upper 70s for most locations, near 80s some coastal
locations. Lows tonight cooling into the lower 60s over our far
northwestern zones as the cold front moves east of that area this
evening, but will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the
remainder of the area. With moderate swell height and swell period
still occurring over the open Gulf waters, combined with tidal
ranges better than 1 ft and continued persistent onshore flow, we
have upgraded to a High Risk for rip currents for today and
Thursday. /12

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...The cold front is
expected to be east of our area by late Thursday, with rains
ending and much cooler air moving in Thursday night and Friday.
Highs Friday ranging from the mid 50s northwest to lower 60s
southeast. Lows both Thursday night and Friday nights in the mid
to upper 30s interior and low to mid 40s coastal. /12

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Synoptic scale surface
high will control the local weather pattern with rain-free
weather over the weekend. A small chance of showers may return to
the southern zones by Tuesday. Latest gridded high temperatures
show that Saturday and Sunday's numbers will be similar to those
of Friday. Highs to gradually modify/warm heading into the
beginning of next week. Overnight lows to remain chilly in the
mid/upper 30s inland and mid/upper 40s coastal over the weekend
and warming into the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s by Tuesday. /12

MARINE...A moderate southerly flow will continue through early
Thu as a warm front lifts north over the marine area today followed
by a strong cold front approaching from the northwest late tonight
and early Thu. Widespread rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms
will continue through early Thu and a few strong thunderstorms
will also be possible through early Thu. The cold front is
expected to move east across the marine area by Thu afternoon,
leading to a strong offshore flow late Thu through Sat. Hazardous
wind and wave conditions will be likely in the wake of the cold
front likely resulting in Small Craft conditions Thu night through
Fri, and possibly over the weekend as reinforcing cold air continues
to move south over the north central Gulf. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-311145-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A warm front will lift north across the forecast area today, producing
widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some
of the storms could be strong to marginally severe, with damaging
winds being the primary threat but an isolated, weak tornado is
possible, especially in the vicinity of the warm frontal boundary.

Periods of heavy rain will be likely today and tonight as well, possibly
leading to some minor nuisance flooding in low lying areas through tonight.
Currently, a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is in effect.

There is now a High Risk of rip currents along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A cold front will be moving east across the region Thursday morning
and then east of the area by mid Thursday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible just ahead of the cold front but
ending with the cold frontal passage. A few of those storms could be
strong as well.

A High Risk of rip currents continues along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle through Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-311145-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A warm front will lift north across the forecast area today, producing
widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some
of the storms could be strong to marginally severe, with damaging
winds being the primary threat but an isolated, weak tornado is
possible, especially in the vicinity of the warm frontal boundary.

Periods of heavy rain will be likely today and tonight as well, possibly
leading to some minor nuisance flooding in low lying areas through tonight.
Currently, a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is in effect.

There is now a High Risk of rip currents along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A cold front will be moving east across the region Thursday morning
and then east of the area by mid Thursday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible just ahead of the cold front but
ending with the cold frontal passage. A few of those storms could be
strong as well.

A High Risk of rip currents continues along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle through Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-311145-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous winds and wave possible today and tonight, especially in
the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous wind and wave conditions will be likely in the wake of
a cold front late Thursday night through Friday and possibly
continuing into the weekend.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

MSZ078-079-301300-
Stone MS-George MS-
654 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...GEORGE
AND SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

At 654 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles north of
Latimer, or 15 miles north of St. Martin, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8878 3100 8842 3079 8842 3073 8850
      3073 8888 3068 8889 3068 8899
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 226DEG 28KT 3066 8883

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
824 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

ALZ052-261-MSZ076-079-301415-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
824 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN GEORGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 824 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Lucedale, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle and Gulfcrest.

LAT...LON 3120 8826 3099 8819 3095 8853 3108 8857
TIME...MOT...LOC 1324Z 255DEG 18KT 3101 8851