Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Mobile, AL

649 
WWUS54 KMOB 300824
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
324 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

ALC097-300900-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-191030T0900Z/
Mobile AL-
324 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY...

At 323 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Coden, or over
Bayou La Batre, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Bayou La Batre and Coden. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 8833 3055 8827 3035 8818 3034 8818
      3033 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0823Z 171DEG 19KT 3038 8822 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...Predominately LIFR/IFR ceilings over the area
improve to MVFR by the early morning hours then improve to VFR
ceilings near midday Wednesday as a warm front over the marine
area moves northward through the land portion of the forecast
area. Easterly winds 5 to 10 knots become southerly as the warm
front moves through. Rain will continue over much of the area
overnight with embedded thunderstorms developing first near shore
by the early morning hours, then over the remainder of the area
during the day on Wednesday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 938 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Periods of overrunning rain north of a warm front over
the northern Gulf are expected to continue through the overnight
hours. Current forecast on track, with no updates planned at this
time.
/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...LIFR/IFR ceilings over much of the area improve to
MVFR ceilings late tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front
advances from the marine area northward through the land portion
of the forecast area. Rain continues over much of the area
overnight, with embedded thunderstorms developing near the coast
late tonight, then further inland on Wednesday. East to northeast
winds 5 to 10 knots become southerly near 10 knots as the warm
front moves through. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...The inverted surface trough
across the western Gulf of Mexico will build northward up the
lower/middle Mississippi River through the near term, while a
surface ridge along the eastern seaboard moves slightly eastward
over the western Atlantic. The shift in these two systems will
bring a southerly synoptic wind flow to the region by noon
Wednesday, allowing a frontal boundary situated along the coast
Wednesday morning to move northward as a warm front across the
forecast area throughout the day. A massive longwave trough over
much of North America will weaken slightly as it moves eastward,
with the axis extending from southeast Canada to the Desert
Southwest by late in the period. A strong cold front associated
with this system and approaching the region from the northwest
will extend from Cleveland to Houston by late Wednesday afternoon.
A robust over-running pattern will persist across the forecast
area through the near term, keeping widespread light to moderate
rain showers through midweek, with an occasional heavy shower or
thunderstorm possible. The main concern will be periods of heavy
rain, that could result localized nuisance flooding.

Low temperatures tonight will be about 15 degrees above normal, and
range from 63 to 70 degrees inland areas, with lower 70s along the
coast. High temperatures Wednesday will be about 3 degrees above
normal, ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. /22

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Vigorous
positive tilt long-wave upper trof over the nation's mid-section
Wednesday night begins to eject eastward out of the Plains
Thursday. The upper energy pivots northeast over the Great Lakes
late Thursday. With the passage of the upper support, a strong
cold front surges eastward over the area Thursday, exiting off to
the east by evening. Ahead of the front, periods of showers and
embedded storms remain in the forecast. The environment could
support the development of a few strong to marginally severe
storms before the front moves through. In the wake of the frontal
passage, much cooler and drier weather as we open up the
beginning of November.

Unseasonably warm Wednesday night with lows in the mid-upper 60s
interior to lower 70s coast is 15 to upwards of around 20 degrees
above normal for late October. In fact, a few record high minimum
temperatures could be met in a few areas Wednesday night. Will be
turning colder Thursday night with lows forecast to break into
the 30s over the northern zones with mid to upper 40s to the
coast. Similar lows Friday night. Highs on Friday look to not make
it out of the mid 50s over the interior northwest with lower half
of the 60s expected elsewhere.

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Synoptic scale surface
high will control the local weather pattern with rain-free
weather over the weekend. A small chance of showers may return to
the southern zones by Tuesday.

Latest gridded high temperatures show that Saturday and Sunday's
numbers will be similar to those of Friday. Highs to gradually
modify/warm heading into the beginning of next week. Overnight
lows to remain chilly over the weekend. /10

MARINE...A better onshore flow sets up through early Thursday as
a warm front approaches from the south along with a strong cold
front approaching from the northwest. Widespread rain with scattered
embedded thunderstorms will be likely over most locations in the
marine area early today continuing through tonight. Heavy rain mixed
with low clouds and patchy fog could restrict visibilities to one
mile or less through tonight. The cold front is expected to move
across the marine area by early Thursday night leading to a strong
offshore flow Friday through Saturday. A few strong thunderstorms
will be possible ahead of the cold front late Wednesday through
Thursday. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
552 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-301030-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
552 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of heavy rain will be likely today and tonight possibly
leading to some minor nuisance flooding in low lying areas through
tonight. Currently, a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall is in
effect.

There is a Moderate Risk for rip currents along the Gulf beaches
of ALabama and Northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Monday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday along
and ahead of a warm front approaching from the south and on Thursday
ahead and along a strong cold front approaching from the northwest.
Gusty straight line winds and heavy rain will be the main threats.

Periods of heavy rain may lead to some flooding or flash flooding in
low lying areas Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, a Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall is in effect.

There is a Moderate Risk for rip currents along the Gulf beaches of
Alabama and Northwest Florida through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected
through Monday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-301030-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
552 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rain mixed with lows clouds and patchy fog could lead to
visibilities lowering to less the one nautical mile today and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday ahead of a
strong cold front approaching from the west. Gusty straight line
winds and heavy rain will be the main threats.

Hazardous wind and wave conditions will be likely in the wake of
a cold front late Thursday night through Saturday continuing
through early next week.