Tornado Warning 24, NWS Memphis, TN

682 
WWUS54 KMEG 022216
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
516 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

ARC093-MOC155-022230-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-190502T2230Z/
Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-
516 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTIES...
    
At 515 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm 
producing a tornado was located 5 miles north of Blytheville, moving 
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Blytheville, Gosnell, Steele, Cooter, Holland, Yarbro, Number Nine,
West Hermondale, Samford, New Survey, Channel, Denton, Covington,
Hermondale and Temples Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8967 3592 8988 3597 8998 3600 8997
      3600 8996 3608 8996 3614 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 207DEG 21KT 3599 8991 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

JOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...
A Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) is centered and spinning to the
northeast of Little Rock, Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
slightly unstable airmass exists across northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. The airmass is largely characterized by 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE with up to 35 kts of bulk shear. In addition, LCLs
are sufficiently low around 700 meters and surface winds are
backed easterly. As a result, 0-1 km shear values are in excess of
1000 m2/s2. The combination of mentioned severe parameters
justifies a low end tornado risk. However, damaging winds still
look to be the dominant threat. A tornado watch is in effect for
northeast Arkansas and Dunklin County, MO through 7PM CDT. The MCV
is expected to lift northeast of the area around midnight. Thereafter,
a frontal boundary is expected to push south of the I-40
corridor through Friday morning.

.Friday through the Weekend...
Friday now appears to be a mostly dry day as the front sags to our
south and upper level heights build behind the exiting shortwave
trough. This will result in mainly dry conditions through late
afternoon for much of the area. Decided to carry a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms further south, where a few showers
and thunderstorms may form during peak heating. The better
organized showers and thunderstorms will arrive around sundown as
a surface low tracks directly over the Mid-South and the front
lifts back north as a warm front.

The low pressure system is expected to lift northeastward
throughout the day on Saturday. This will result in scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of the day. QPF
values will range from a half inch to one inch with isolated
higher amounts. Due to the track of the low, severe weather is not
anticipated. Both main synoptic models are consistent with the
front exiting the area by early Sunday morning with high pressure
building in during the day. It should be a beautiful day with
plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and temperatures in the low to
mid 70s.

.Next Week...
Monday will be another nice day with abundant sunshine with
slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The
weather pattern will become quite unsettled by Tuesday, as surface
high pressure shifts eastward and a large trough begins to dig
across the Desert Southwest. A number of shortwaves, embedded in
southwest flow aloft, will rotate through the area Tuesday night
through Friday. Expect showers and thunderstorms each day with
highs around 80 and lows in the upper 60s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should continue into early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will be found across northeast Arkansas this
afternoon and across the remainder of the forecast area by this
evening. Lower clouds will move into the forecast area this
evening and will remain over the region into Friday morning. Winds
will be mainly from the south at around 10 knots with some higher
gusts. Winds will shift to the northwest starting as early as this
evening and continuing through Friday morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-032215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms generally along
and north of I-40 this afternoon and tonight. A marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms exists across the remainder of the Mid South.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat for any thunderstorms
that reach severe limits, with a secondary threat of an isolated
tornado along and west of the Mississippi River. Localized heavy
rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds and localized
heavy rainfall are possible across the Mid-South for Friday and
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

AC3
AC3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 PM CDT THU MAY 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     TORNADO          4 NE LAFE               36.25N  90.46W
05/02/2019                   GREENE             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TORNADO IN KNOB, AR.

&&

KRF