Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...
A Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) is centered and spinning to the
northeast of Little Rock, Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
slightly unstable airmass exists across northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. The airmass is largely characterized by 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE with up to 35 kts of bulk shear. In addition, LCLs
are sufficiently low around 700 meters and surface winds are
backed easterly. As a result, 0-1 km shear values are in excess of
1000 m2/s2. The combination of mentioned severe parameters
justifies a low end tornado risk. However, damaging winds still
look to be the dominant threat. A tornado watch is in effect for
northeast Arkansas and Dunklin County, MO through 7PM CDT. The MCV
is expected to lift northeast of the area around midnight. Thereafter,
a frontal boundary is expected to push south of the I-40
corridor through Friday morning.

.Friday through the Weekend...
Friday now appears to be a mostly dry day as the front sags to our
south and upper level heights build behind the exiting shortwave
trough. This will result in mainly dry conditions through late
afternoon for much of the area. Decided to carry a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms further south, where a few showers
and thunderstorms may form during peak heating. The better
organized showers and thunderstorms will arrive around sundown as
a surface low tracks directly over the Mid-South and the front
lifts back north as a warm front.

The low pressure system is expected to lift northeastward
throughout the day on Saturday. This will result in scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of the day. QPF
values will range from a half inch to one inch with isolated
higher amounts. Due to the track of the low, severe weather is not
anticipated. Both main synoptic models are consistent with the
front exiting the area by early Sunday morning with high pressure
building in during the day. It should be a beautiful day with
plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and temperatures in the low to
mid 70s.

.Next Week...
Monday will be another nice day with abundant sunshine with
slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The
weather pattern will become quite unsettled by Tuesday, as surface
high pressure shifts eastward and a large trough begins to dig
across the Desert Southwest. A number of shortwaves, embedded in
southwest flow aloft, will rotate through the area Tuesday night
through Friday. Expect showers and thunderstorms each day with
highs around 80 and lows in the upper 60s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should continue into early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will be found across northeast Arkansas this
afternoon and across the remainder of the forecast area by this
evening. Lower clouds will move into the forecast area this
evening and will remain over the region into Friday morning. Winds
will be mainly from the south at around 10 knots with some higher
gusts. Winds will shift to the northwest starting as early as this
evening and continuing through Friday morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CDT THU MAY 02 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TORNADO          1 WNW BLYTHEVILLE       35.94N  89.95W
05/02/2019                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR GOSNELL.

&&

KRF

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