Tornado Warning 23, NWS Memphis, TN

550 
WWUS54 KMEG 022127
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
427 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

ARC021-055-022145-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190502T2145Z/
Greene AR-Clay AR-
427 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL GREENE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES...
    
At 427 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
producing a tornado was located near Lafe, or near Marmaduke, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lafe and Knob. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9046 3620 9054 3633 9052 3631 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 203DEG 15KT 3625 9047 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JOHNSON

110 
WWUS54 KMEG 022133
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
433 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

ARC021-055-022145-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190502T2145Z/
Greene AR-Clay AR-
433 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES...
    
At 431 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Knob, moving 
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. At 428 PM CDT, a 
         tornado was reported near Knob in extrem southern Clay 
         County.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lafe and Knob. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 9045 3621 9052 3633 9052 3631 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 209DEG 13KT 3626 9046 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JOHNSON

183 
WWUS54 KMEG 022146
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
446 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

ARC021-055-022155-
/O.EXP.KMEG.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190502T2145Z/
Greene AR-Clay AR-
446 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CLAY
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened and exited the 
warned area. Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for eastern
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3620 9045 3621 9052 3633 9052 3631 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 209DEG 13KT 3630 9043 

$$

JOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...
A Meso Convective Vortex (MCV) is centered and spinning to the
northeast of Little Rock, Arkansas. Ahead of this feature, a
slightly unstable airmass exists across northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. The airmass is largely characterized by 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE with up to 35 kts of bulk shear. In addition, LCLs
are sufficiently low around 700 meters and surface winds are
backed easterly. As a result, 0-1 km shear values are in excess of
1000 m2/s2. The combination of mentioned severe parameters
justifies a low end tornado risk. However, damaging winds still
look to be the dominant threat. A tornado watch is in effect for
northeast Arkansas and Dunklin County, MO through 7PM CDT. The MCV
is expected to lift northeast of the area around midnight. Thereafter,
a frontal boundary is expected to push south of the I-40
corridor through Friday morning.

.Friday through the Weekend...
Friday now appears to be a mostly dry day as the front sags to our
south and upper level heights build behind the exiting shortwave
trough. This will result in mainly dry conditions through late
afternoon for much of the area. Decided to carry a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms further south, where a few showers
and thunderstorms may form during peak heating. The better
organized showers and thunderstorms will arrive around sundown as
a surface low tracks directly over the Mid-South and the front
lifts back north as a warm front.

The low pressure system is expected to lift northeastward
throughout the day on Saturday. This will result in scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of the day. QPF
values will range from a half inch to one inch with isolated
higher amounts. Due to the track of the low, severe weather is not
anticipated. Both main synoptic models are consistent with the
front exiting the area by early Sunday morning with high pressure
building in during the day. It should be a beautiful day with
plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and temperatures in the low to
mid 70s.

.Next Week...
Monday will be another nice day with abundant sunshine with
slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The
weather pattern will become quite unsettled by Tuesday, as surface
high pressure shifts eastward and a large trough begins to dig
across the Desert Southwest. A number of shortwaves, embedded in
southwest flow aloft, will rotate through the area Tuesday night
through Friday. Expect showers and thunderstorms each day with
highs around 80 and lows in the upper 60s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should continue into early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will be found across northeast Arkansas this
afternoon and across the remainder of the forecast area by this
evening. Lower clouds will move into the forecast area this
evening and will remain over the region into Friday morning. Winds
will be mainly from the south at around 10 knots with some higher
gusts. Winds will shift to the northwest starting as early as this
evening and continuing through Friday morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-032215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
311 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms generally along
and north of I-40 this afternoon and tonight. A marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms exists across the remainder of the Mid South.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat for any thunderstorms
that reach severe limits, with a secondary threat of an isolated
tornado along and west of the Mississippi River. Localized heavy
rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds and localized
heavy rainfall are possible across the Mid-South for Friday and
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

AC3
AC3