Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon Update.

Ongoing weather across the Midsouth has already produced wind
damage, likely from straight line winds as well as from
thunderstorms. Several tornado warnings have also been issued with
two currently in effect. For the remainder of the afternoon, into
the evening hours, the main focus will be over North Mississippi
and portions of West Tennessee, mainly south of Interstate 40.

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms including the
risk of tornadoes through around 9 pm this evening. A fast moving
negatively tilted shortwave and associated surface low has
shifted East of the Mississippi river. The surface low will track
into East Iowa this evening and the mid level shortwave will
pivot northeast into the Ohio Valley. As the trough axis becomes
parallel to or rotates past parallel to the the upper level
support, the severe threat should diminish. Abundant moisture,
characterized by dew points in the middle to upper 60s has
resulted in surface based CAPE over 1000 J/KG, balanced by 0-1km
winds over 60kt and 0-1km SRH approaching 500m2/s2. The dynamic
energy alone may be sufficient to maintain storms after sunset
and the thermodynamic component diminishes.

Rapid clearing is expected tonight, Along and West of the
Mississippi River (especially Northern portions of the Midsouth)
may even see clear skies before sunset. Overnight lows will be in
the low 40s to low 50s. High clouds will return tomorrow, Portions
of Northeast Mississippi may approach 70 degrees but most of the
Midsouth should be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. It should be
mostly dry Sunday and Monday but we will likely see more clouds
than sun, especially late Sunday and Monday.

During the middle of the week, another deep low will strengthen
over the Four Corners area then swing out over the plains. At the
moment this system does not appear to have the healthy westward
tilt with height that is usually associated with severe
thunderstorms. The vertically stacked surface low and upper level
closed low is forecast to track from southwest Kansas across Iowa
by midday Thursday. Though the severe potential does not appear
high, we may see a period of heavy rain Wednesday evening through
midday Thursday. No extreme temperature changes are expected
through Thursday. Seasonably cool conditions are expected to
return Friday into next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

A line of strong to severe storms will move east across the Mid-
South this afternoon. This line of storms should clear TUP by 00z,
but some elevated thunderstorms may linger for a few hours in
northeast MS. Outside of thunderstorms, strong gradient winds of
20g30 kts are expected through 00z with stronger wind gusts
possible within the more intense storms. Skies will clear out and
winds will shift from the southwest this evening behind the
initial cold front. A secondary cold front will move through the
CWA overnight, shifting winds from a more northwesterly direction.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-102315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
305 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a enhanced risk of severe weather across portions of the
Midsouth. Multiple tornado watches are in effect, continuing as
late as 9 pm for portions of Northeast Mississippi.

A wind advisory has been issued for most of the Mid-South through 6
pm this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is the possibility of heavy rainfall Wednesday into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT                  34.95N  88.90W
03/09/2019                   TIPPAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE POWERLINES DOWN ON US72 1.5 MI. EAST OF
            WALNUT.

&&

SGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
311 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT                  34.95N  88.90W
03/09/2019                   TIPPAH             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERRIF DEPARTMENT REPORT OF DAMAGE TO HOUSE ON HWY
            354.

&&

SGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TORNADO          1 N PICKWICK DAM        35.06N  88.25W
03/09/2019                   HARDIN             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS
            5 MILES NORTH OF PICKWICK DAM.

&&

SGW

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