Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
616 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Diurnal isolated thunderstorms are developing across the forecast
area this afternoon. Expect the isolated storms to dissipate by
early this evening. However, a developing MCS over the middle
Mississippi valley will move south-southeastward into a portion of
west Tennessee later this evening into the overnight hours.

A nearly stationary front will remain over the region over the
next several days. An upper ridge over west TX and a trough over
the eastern US will continue to support a NW flow aloft favoring
additional storms from MCSs into the weekend.

The western upper ridge will migrate eastward toward the lower
Mississippi valley Sunday into early next week. This will decrease
the chance of storms but increase the heat potential later in the
weekend into next week.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Patchy fog may produce temporary MVFR/IFR conditions at MKL
overnight towards sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected
through the period. VCTS possible through 07Z at MKL and at TUP
for the next 2-3 hours. VCTS possible at MEM/TUP on Wednesday
afternoon. Light winds tonight gradually anticipated to veer NW
towards Wednesday morning.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
314 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-071100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
314 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hot and humid conditions are expected from Sunday into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

SWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
653 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

TNZ001-002-070030-
Lake TN-Obion TN-
653 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Lake County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Obion County in western Tennessee...

At 652 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing penny to nickel size
hail and winds 35 to 45 mph was located near Big Oak Tree State Park,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Lake and northwestern Obion Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 8908 3644 8900 3628 8927 3649 8943
      3650 8942 3651 8930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 319DEG 24KT 3658 8936

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
740 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

ARZ009-070115-
Clay AR-
740 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

At 740 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing penny to nickel size
hail and winds 35 to 45 mph was located over Success, or near
Corning, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western Clay County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 9041 3628 9030 3626 9052 3627 9072
      3633 9075 3641 9075 3641 9077 3642 9077
      3642 9076 3643 9078 3643 9077 3644 9078
      3649 9077 3650 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 332DEG 33KT 3645 9067