Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

600 
WWUS54 KMAF 122326
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2019

NMC015-TXC109-130000-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190313T0000Z/
Eddy NM-Culberson TX-
626 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM
CDT/600 PM MDT/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDDY AND NORTHERN CULBERSON
COUNTIES...

At 625 PM CDT/525 PM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 
12 miles northeast of Pine Springs, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Springs, Loving, McKittrick Canyon, Guadalupe Mountains National
Park, Malaga, Carlsbad Caverns National Park and Whites City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000 PM MDT/ for
southeastern New Mexico...and southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3200 10492 3200 10485 3209 10484 3232 10399
      3165 10407 3175 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 252DEG 26KT 3199 10465 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

72

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
445 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for watch issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch #17 issued through 04z for SE NM and most of West
TX. Forecast already had mention of thunderstorms with some severe
this afternoon/evening so no change to that. Line of storms still
west of area be moving into CWA shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Very potent upper low pushing into southwest Arizona this afternoon
will track eastward overnight with associated negatively tilted
trough pushing into west Texas this evening. Ahead of trough,
southeast winds will continue to strengthen allowing dewpoints in
the lower 60s to overspread much of the area. Surface based CAPES
are already pushing 2000 over parts of the Big Bend. Though
clouds are inhibiting low level heating, cooling aloft associated
with trough, breaks in clouds west of the Pecos, and continuing
warm/moist advection are expected to produce CAPES of 1000 to
2000 over a large part of the area by late afternoon. With bulk
shear exceeding 60 knots, conditions are ripening for organized
thunderstorms with rotating updrafts. Low LCLs and effective
helicity values of 200 to 300 across the area suggest that
generation of low level vorticity is heightened. For discrete
thunderstorms, damaging wind hail exceeding 2 inches and tornadoes
will be possible. As upper storm system and Pacific front
approach, convection will tend to merge along a line by mid-
evening and progress eastward across much of the area east of the
mountains overnight. These storms will be capable of producing
large hail in excess of an inch with winds potentially exceeding
60 mph over a large area. Though tornadoes will be less likely
within this line, the possibility cannot be ruled out.

Ahead of the front, southeast winds will be quite brisk, prompting
the continuation of a Wind Advisory over the western and southern
Permian Basin, the Davis Mountains, the Stockton Plateau and Lea
County in New Mexico through mid morning Wednesday. With approach
of the storm system, potentially damaging winds are expected to
develop across Eddy County New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains,
and the Deleware Mountains. In the wake of storms and Pacific
front, surface pressure gradient will remain tight much of
Wednesday particularly from Permian Basin north. West to southwest
winds will increase markedly across the area after sunrise
Wednesday as strong winds aloft begin to mix down to the surface.
Winds at 850 mph are progs to max out at 50 knots or above over
most of the area, suggesting strong gust potential. For this
reason, a High Wind Warning is in effect for all of southwest
Texas and southeast New Mexico except for the Presidio valley with
the greatest potential for sustained damaging wind generally
north of I-20 and at higher elevations. With significant rainfall
preceding the high winds, blowing potential will be limited
though visibility could restricted in localized areas. As the
pressure gradient begins to relax Wednesday evening, surface winds
will begin to taper off, allowing the High Wind Warning for most
of the area to expire mid-evening Wednesday. Strong winds will
likely continue in the Guadalupe Mountains overnight, so the High
Wind Warning for that area will continue until near daybreak
Thursday.

High temperatures will generally run 10 degrees below normal for
the next several days with lows slightly below normal as a cooler
airmass spreads across the area behind departing storm system.
After tonight, there will be little risk of precipitation again
until Friday night and Saturday as shearing upper trough slides
across area. Presently best changes appear to be in southeast New
Mexico. With Saturday morning temperatures possibly below freezing
over parts of the area, we may see a combination of rain and
freezing rain Friday night and into early morning Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  66  40  59 / 100   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  64  39  59 / 100   0   0   0
Dryden                         49  76  47  70 /  90   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  47  68  42  60 / 100   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  53  32  51 /  90  10   0   0
Hobbs                          40  60  35  56 / 100   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  64  33  58 /  90   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  65  40  59 / 100   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  65  40  59 / 100   0   0   0
Wink                           43  67  38  61 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central
     Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for
     Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Wednesday
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-
     Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
130 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 /1230 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region this
evening and until after midnight. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, as well as a tornado
threat. Brief heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be
possible.

Very windy conditions are expected beginning tonight for much of
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, Eddy County New
Mexico Plains. A Wind Advisory is in effect tonight for a significant
portion of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Davis Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong, damaging winds are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night
across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas. A High Wind
Warning is in effect Wednesday through Wednesday evening for
southeast New Mexico and all of west Texas, except the Presidio
Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed by late this afternoon
or early this evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2019

NMZ027-028-TXZ057-058-258-122345-
Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Guadalupe
Mountains-
556 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN EDDY AND
NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTIES...

At 555 PM CDT/455 PM MDT/, strong thunderstorms were clustered near
Guadalupe Mountains National Park, or 8 miles northwest of Pine
Springs, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Springs, McKittrick Canyon, Guadalupe Mountains National Park,
Carlsbad Caverns National Park, Whites City, Lincoln National Forest
and Queen.

LAT...LON 3200 10492 3200 10485 3286 10484 3208 10414
      3172 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 240DEG 48KT 3195 10494

80